What Robert Pape has said about Political violence in the United States

Pape argues America's greatest threat is domestic mass support for political violence rather than foreign adversaries or militias.

“It's from tens of millions of Americans who support political violence. Once you have support for political violence lodged in the mainstream of society, this changes everything”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 0:46

Pape says the present period is a historically anomalous era he calls violent populism, comparable only to the 1920s and 1960s.

“we are in an era. of historically high political violence and historically high support for political violence that will change the election that we are about to go through in ways we may not really be prepared for”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:43

Pape says survey experiments show most respondents endorsing force against Trump mean assassination specifically.

“55% of the time, they mean assassinating President Trump with rifles as the attempt that failed at Butler”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 9:44

Pape reports that 16% of Americans, around 40 million, support Trump using the military to suppress Democratic protesters.

“16% of Americans support President Trump's use of the military to suppress Democratic protesters. That is approximately 40 million Americans”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 13:14

Pape argues that studies naming the right as the main source of domestic violence depend on their start date and that the character of US political violence changed about a decade ago.

“That means the nature of political violence in our country has changed over the last 10 years”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 15:37

Pape argues mass support nudges psychologically volatile individuals into violence by promising social approval.

“it nudges those volatile individuals over the edge because they have an additional motive for carrying out the political violence, which is social approval”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 22:06

Pape says the modern supporter of political violence is typically an educated, middle-class American with assets, not an unemployed rural militia member.

“the new stereotype, Chris, before I go into examples, are essentially well-educated, middle-class Americans, nice homes, and a 401k, and they wear a suit and tie”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 44:56

Pape argues affluent people risk violence because they fear the other party winning will strip away their future.

“Because they think they're about to lose it all in the next couple of years”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 49:45

Pape says a silent majority of two-thirds to 70% of Americans abhors political violence but has no leaders or vehicle to express it.

“we have routinely 65%, 70% of Americans who abhor political violence. They are the silent majority, Chris, but they don't have a good vehicle to express that”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 53:32

Pape argues sympathizers are a bigger problem than violent extremists themselves.

“Oh, the people that sympathize with them, by far, by far”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:03:55

Pape says his June 2025 New York Times op-ed warned of imminent assassination attempts and militarized immigration enforcement, which he says occurred months later.

“I published a big piece in the New York Times that we're on the brink of a period of major political violence”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:19:57

Pape says Russia and China benefit most from American internal division because it consumes US attention.

“without a doubt, it's going to be Russia and China for sure”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:33:16

Pape attributes roughly half the phenomenon to social change, a quarter to Trump and a quarter to social media and other factors.

“I would say 50% of this is due to the social changes I laid out. 25% is due to President Trump”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:37:04

Pape says the deplatforming of Trump and Tucker Carlson failed to reduce the underlying anger, vindicating his focus on social change.

“We did de-platform Trump. We did de-platform Tucker Carlson. And guess what happened, Chris? We did not actually diminish any of those fires”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:38:18

Pape compares Zohran Mamdani's rapid rise on the left to Trump's, arguing both are propelled by the same existential social-change issues.

“Mamdami, almost exactly the same. What are the key issues they're running on? The key social change issues I'm talking about right here”

Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:39:32