Robert Pape
American political scientist, professor at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats
Robert Pape (American political scientist, professor at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats) has appeared as a guest on 1 episode in TMT. Topics they speak about most include Political violence in the United States, 2026 United States midterm elections, January 6 United States Capitol attack.
In their words
Positions and remarks grouped by topic, each with the exact quote and where it was said.
Political violence in the United States6 of 15
Pape compares Zohran Mamdani's rapid rise on the left to Trump's, arguing both are propelled by the same existential social-change issues.
“Mamdami, almost exactly the same. What are the key issues they're running on? The key social change issues I'm talking about right here”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:39:32
Pape says the deplatforming of Trump and Tucker Carlson failed to reduce the underlying anger, vindicating his focus on social change.
“We did de-platform Trump. We did de-platform Tucker Carlson. And guess what happened, Chris? We did not actually diminish any of those fires”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:38:18
Pape attributes roughly half the phenomenon to social change, a quarter to Trump and a quarter to social media and other factors.
“I would say 50% of this is due to the social changes I laid out. 25% is due to President Trump”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:37:04
Pape says Russia and China benefit most from American internal division because it consumes US attention.
“without a doubt, it's going to be Russia and China for sure”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:33:16
Pape says his June 2025 New York Times op-ed warned of imminent assassination attempts and militarized immigration enforcement, which he says occurred months later.
“I published a big piece in the New York Times that we're on the brink of a period of major political violence”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:19:57
Pape argues sympathizers are a bigger problem than violent extremists themselves.
“Oh, the people that sympathize with them, by far, by far”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:03:55
2026 United States midterm elections
Pape argues a Democratic victory in 2024 would not have prevented the current violence because it is driven by underlying social change.
“I'm not sure how much it would have changed, Chris, because it's a function of the social changes”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:21:50
- Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts that whichever side loses the midterms will mount violent protests potentially larger than January 6, 2021.
“We are likely to see violent protests, whoever loses, that may be larger than January 6th”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 8:22
- Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts the midterms will be the most dangerous US elections in living memory, with the danger concentrated on the certification date of January 6, 2027.
“This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 12:31
January 6 United States Capitol attack
Pape says his center reviewed all roughly 1,575 January 6 prosecutions and found only 10% were militia members, with 45% business owners and professionals.
“Only 10% were members of militia groups”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 47:18
Pape suggests that stronger police resistance at the Capitol could have drawn far more than 1,600 people into the breach.
“I think there's a good chance you would have had many more than the 1600 come in”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 37:39
Pape says Trump made no attempt to call off the Capitol crowd for about three hours and has since glorified and pardoned the participants.
“President Trump did nothing to call them off until the very end”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 32:48
United States war with Iran
Pape says the Iran war is the first American war since World War II to produce no rally-around-the-flag effect, with opinion splitting along pre-existing divisions.
“This is the first war where that's not true, the first war where it's not true”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:30:13
Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections
Pape says the evidence indicates foreign influence operations can magnify existing divisions only modestly and cannot manufacture them.
“the reason I say we are our own worst enemies and not it's China manipulation or Russia manipulation”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:25:49
Wealth inequality in the United States
Pape identifies the concentration of wealth in the top 1%, rising from 17% to 26% of national wealth, as the second driver creating a negative-sum society.
“Side by side with this demographic shift has been a mass wealth shift to the top 1%”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:13:55
Great Replacement conspiracy theory
Pape says believing whites are being deliberately replaced makes respondents four times more likely to support pro-Trump political violence.
“you're not just more likely to vote for Trump, you're four times more likely to support political violence for Trump”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:12:22
Demographic history of the United States
Pape identifies the shift from a white-majority to a white-minority democracy as the biggest driver of violent populism.
“For the first time in our country's 250-year history, the United States is transitioning from a white majority democracy to a white minority democracy”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:07:58
Provisional Irish Republican Army
Pape argues that mass public support precedes and gives birth to terrorist organizations, citing polling in Northern Ireland in 1969.
“As it actually grows, that's what gives birth to the IRA. It's not the other way around”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:04:59
George Floyd protests
Pape says daily tracking of the 2020 protests in 50 cities showed a consistent pattern of peaceful daytime demonstrations splintering into violence after dark.
“most were peaceful. That's absolutely true. But there was a very clear pattern, which was the peaceful protests would start usually in the afternoon”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 24:54
Chicago Project on Security and Threats
Pape reports that his center's newest national survey found 25% of American adults support the use of force to prevent Trump from being president.
“25% of American adults support the use of force to prevent President Trump from being president. That equates to 65 million American adults”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 8:30
Predictions
2 pending
- Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts that whichever side loses the midterms will mount violent protests potentially larger than January 6, 2021.
“We are likely to see violent protests, whoever loses, that may be larger than January 6th”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 8:22 · 2026 United States midterm elections
- Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts the midterms will be the most dangerous US elections in living memory, with the danger concentrated on the certification date of January 6, 2027.
“This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 12:31 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Appearances
“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154Modern Wisdom · Sep 24, 2026 · 1 h 43 min
Political scientist Robert Pape tells Chris Williamson that mass public support for political violence makes the coming US midterms the most dangerous election in living memory.
Often appears with
- Chris Williamson · 1 shared episode