Kawhi in Flux, Embiid’s Next Team, Jaylen vs. Advanced Numbers, and a Mini-Mailbag With Joe House

Episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast · July 9, 2026 · 1 h 56 min

Bill Simmons and Joe House discuss the paused Kawhi Leonard trade, Jaylen Brown's poor advanced metrics, a possible Joel Embiid trade, and mailbag questions.

Summary

Bill Simmons and Joe House opened with breaking news that the Toronto Raptors had put their trade for Kawhi Leonard on hold pending the NBA's investigation into the Clippers and the Aspiration sponsorship arrangement. House called the league's timing asinine, while Simmons argued the statement implied Leonard himself could face punishment.

The bulk of the episode examined the Celtics' trade of Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia. Simmons presented Stathead research showing Brown's win shares were the worst among 85 high-usage 28-point scorers, and his on/off numbers historically poor, but said he could not square that with what he watched as Brown led a thin roster to 56 wins. House rejected the analytics framing outright, argued the front office punted on a contender after adding Mitchell Robinson, and said the team should have prepared fans for the move. Simmons attributed the trade to fears that Brown would not accept returning to a secondary role behind Jayson Tatum and wondered why Boston did not wait until the fall.

The hosts then debated whether Philadelphia would trade Joel Embiid given his contract and the shrinking salary cap. House rejected hypothetical deals for Washington, Milwaukee, Brooklyn and Dallas, suggesting only a near-contender such as Golden State with Jimmy Butler's expiring deal made sense, and called Embiid's extension the most unforgivable in basketball. They also discussed the second apron, LeBron James's free agency, and expansion.

The mailbag covered LeBron's ideal golf destination, harassment of Brad Stevens online, the Matt Freese World Cup error, Kyle Lowry's Hall of Fame case, the Pelicans' rebuild, a Gus Williams retrospective, Simmons's old list of acceptable reasons for drinking before 10 a.m., and the U.S. men's national team's World Cup exit to Belgium.

Chapters

1:19
Kawhi trade put on hold
The hosts react to the Raptors pausing their Kawhi Leonard trade until the NBA finishes its investigation.
7:46
Summer league expectations
Simmons and House temper expectations for the Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa summer league matchup.
9:20
Jaylen Brown versus advanced metrics
Simmons lays out Brown's poor advanced stats while House rejects the framing and questions why Boston gave up on the season.
28:52
Brown's fit in Philly and Celtics outlook
The hosts debate Brown's fit with the 76ers, historical high-usage comparisons, and Boston's win projection.
42:31
Brooklyn passes on Brown
Simmons criticizes the Nets for declining a deal built around Michael Porter Jr.'s expiring contract.
45:02
Could the 76ers trade Joel Embiid?
The hosts run through possible Embiid trade partners and conclude few teams would take on his contract.
54:16
LeBron, the salary cap and expansion
Discussion of LeBron James's likely move to Cleveland, the miscalculated cap, the second apron, and ideas like an amnesty clause.
1:01:32
Mailbag: Kawhi, LeBron golf and Celtics blame
Listener questions on the Clippers investigation, LeBron's ideal golf destination, and the Brown trade fallout.
1:11:45
Mailbag: worst plays, trades and Hall of Fame
The hosts discuss the worst sports plays, trade shock rankings, Kyle Lowry's Hall of Fame case and the Pelicans.
1:34:37
Gus Williams retrospective
Simmons and House recount Gus Williams's career as the league's best point guard from 1978 to 1982.
1:39:07
Day drinking list
Simmons revisits his 2005 list of acceptable reasons to drink before 10 a.m., with House adding golf.
1:44:46
USMNT World Cup exit
The hosts lament the U.S. loss to Belgium, Tim Ream's role, and the team's lack of physicality.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Joe House
House criticized the NBA for pausing the Kawhi trade a week after it was made, questioning what the long investigation still needed.
“This trade happened a week ago. How much more time do they need? What are we getting to the bottom of at this point?”
Listen from 3:02 · Kawhi Leonard trade to the Toronto Raptors
Bill Simmons
Simmons argued the Raptors' statement signaled for the first time that Leonard himself could be punished.
“This is the first time it feels like Kawhi might also be punished in this. There's no other way to interpret this”
Listen from 4:15 · Kawhi Leonard trade to the Toronto Raptors
Joe House
House said he rejects framing Brown through efficiency metrics while still valuing analytics generally.
“I reject the framing. I don't reject analytics. I think they are great. They are super helpful”
Listen from 11:11 · Basketball analytics
Joe House
House argued the Celtics front office gave up on a potential contender after adding Mitchell Robinson.
“Why did we punt? Why did the front office give up on this Celtics team?”
Listen from 13:03 · Jaylen Brown trade to the Philadelphia 76ers
Bill Simmons
Simmons said Boston traded Brown because it believed he could not return to a secondary role after being the top option.
“it feels like they felt like there was no going back after Jalen had a taste of being the guy in the team last year”
Listen from 14:58 · Jaylen Brown trade to the Philadelphia 76ers
Bill Simmons
Simmons reported that among 85 players averaging 28 points with a 30 usage rate, Brown had the worst win shares.
“But it's interesting. Jalen's win shares were the worst out of all 85 guys”
Listen from 21:15 · Basketball analytics
Bill Simmons
Simmons said his viewing of Brown's season outweighs the negative advanced metrics.
“And I can't accept the advanced metrics telling me otherwise because I watched the season”
Listen from 23:37 · Basketball analytics
Bill Simmons
Simmons suggested Brown may be the biggest advanced-metrics outlier in NBA history given his on/off numbers.
“I think he might be one of the great advanced metrics outliers in the history of the league, if not number one”
Listen from 27:07 · Basketball analytics
Linked moment · 29:36Skip to 29:36 using a listen link in the info box.
Bill Simmons
Simmons said he cannot understand why Boston did not wait until the fall to see if the deal remained available.
“I will never for the rest of my life, understand why they didn't wait to see if this deal was available until September, October”
Listen from 29:36 · Jaylen Brown trade to the Philadelphia 76ers
Joe House
House said he was bullish on the 76ers' futures after adding Brown, including their odds to win the East.
“I love every Sixers future I'm in. The idea of them as 8-1 to win the East”
Listen from 30:14 · Philadelphia 76ers
Bill Simmons Prediction · due Apr 2027
Simmons projected the Celtics should still win at least 54 to 55 regular-season games.
“And I don't understand why they wouldn't at least be a 54 to 55 win team”
Listen from 41:10 · Boston Celtics
Joe House
House rejected Milwaukee trading for Embiid, citing his availability and salary.
“What's the point of adding a guy that plays 40 games a season at $60 million a year?”
Listen from 48:00 · Joel Embiid trade speculation
Bill Simmons
Simmons called Daryl Morey's failure to sell high on Embiid his biggest mistake of the decade.
“the biggest mistake Daryl made, I think of this decade, um, was not selling high in a bead”
Listen from 53:43 · Joel Embiid trade speculation
Joe House
House called Embiid's contract extension the worst in the league given his foot problems.
“That extension is the most unforgivable extension in all of basketball”
Listen from 54:06 · Joel Embiid trade speculation
Joe House
House argued the CBA negotiators badly miscalculated future cap growth when introducing the second apron.
“They fucked up how much money is going to be available year over year”
Listen from 56:36 · NBA salary cap second apron
Joe House
House predicted the NBA would conclude it could not prove the Clippers knowingly circumvented the cap.
“the league is going to say we investigated it extremely thoroughly and we couldn't connect any of the dots”
Listen from 1:04:20 · Kawhi Leonard trade to the Toronto Raptors
Joe House
House said Golden State would be LeBron's best choice if picking a team purely for golf.
“Golden State. It's an all-time no-brainer. The proximity to the Monterey Peninsula and Cypress Point”
Listen from 1:07:27 · LeBron James free agency
Bill Simmons
Simmons condemned fans harassing Brad Stevens online over the trade.
“You can be mad about a trade, like whatever, but you start going into social media handles and stuff”
Listen from 1:11:30 · Jaylen Brown trade to the Philadelphia 76ers
Joe House
House said the Celtics should have prepared fans by admitting they might not be able to keep Brown.
“said out loud that Jalen, as much as we love him and we'd love to keep him, we're not sure that's going to be possible”
Listen from 1:14:27 · Boston Celtics
Bill Simmons
Simmons said Kyle Lowry will make the Hall of Fame.
“everyone gets into the hall of fame. So the answer is he's in”
Listen from 1:20:21
Bill Simmons
Simmons argued Gus Williams was the NBA's best point guard for a five-year span.
“He was the best point guard in the league house from 1978 to 1982”
Listen from 1:34:37
Joe House
House criticized relying on 38-year-old Tim Ream in the loss to Belgium.
“This dude's 38 freaking years old. He's a big man, but the 6'4 guy from Belgium just jumped over him”
Listen from 1:46:42 · United States men's national soccer team
Bill Simmons
Simmons called the 2002 U.S. World Cup team the best American team, citing its toughness.
“When we talk about best American teams, that's clearly the best team we've had”
Listen from 1:47:23 · United States men's national soccer team

People

In the conversation

Bill SimmonsSportswriter and founder of The Ringer, host of The Bill Simmons Podcast
Joe HouseRinger podcaster and longtime friend of Bill Simmons, known for sports betting talk

Discussed

Kawhi LeonardClippers forward whose games-played total affects All-NBA eligibility
Adam SilverCommissioner of the NBA
Jaylen BrownBoston Celtics guard-forward at the center of the hosts' first-team All-NBA case
Jayson TatumBoston Celtics forward returning from injury
Joel EmbiidPhiladelphia 76ers center and former NBA MVP
Brad StevensBoston Celtics president of basketball operations
Daryl MoreyFormer Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations
LeBron JamesLos Angeles Lakers forward cited as a longevity outlier
Paul GeorgePhiladelphia 76ers forward returning from injury
Mitchell RobinsonNew York Knicks center
Steve NashNBA Hall of Famer and Griffin's fellow analyst
Allen IversonFormer 76ers guard and 2001 MVP
Gus WilliamsGuard and best player on the 1979 champion Seattle SuperSonics
Kyle LowryRetired NBA point guard and 2019 champion with Toronto
Tim ReamUSMNT veteran defender
Darryn PetersonKansas guard and top 2026 NBA draft prospect
AJ DybantsaBYU forward projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft
Donovan MitchellCleveland Cavaliers guard weighed against Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Topics

Patrick Kane In Studio, LeBron James To Philadelphia, Who’s Back + Mt Rushmore Of Things You Eat With A Spoon
Pardon My Take · Jul 27, 2026 · 2 h 24 min
The Pardon My Take crew debates LeBron James signing with the 76ers, runs Who's Back, interviews Patrick Kane on his Blackhawks return, and drafts spoon foods.
LeBron’s Philly Shocker! Plus, the 2011 NBA Redraftables With Zach Lowe.
The Bill Simmons Podcast · Jul 24, 2026 · 1 h 46 min
Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe react to LeBron James signing with the Philadelphia 76ers, then redraft the 2011 NBA draft class.
The 2026 Takie Awards Featuring Celebrity Guest Presenters, Blake Griffin, Blake Bortles, Brooks Koepka And More
Pardon My Take · Jul 24, 2026 · 2 h 48 min
Big Cat, PFT Commenter and the Pardon My Take crew hand out the 2026 Takey Awards, with cameo presenters, Jerry O'Connell, a Pittsburgh Zoo CEO and the Blake of the Year race.
George Hassell: The Family Axeman
Morbid · Jul 23, 2026 · 56 min
Morbid hosts Alaina Urquhart and Ash Kelley recount the life and crimes of George Hassell, who murdered two families in California and Texas before his 1928 execution.
NBA Free Agency With Brian Windhorst, World Cup, Balogun's Red Card Suspended And People Are Big Mad At The US, Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce Wedding + Mt Rushmore Of Weapons
Pardon My Take · Jul 6, 2026 · 2 h 29 min
Pardon My Take hosts celebrate Folarin Balogun's suspended suspension at the World Cup, draft a Mount Rushmore of weapons, and debate NBA free agency with Brian Windhorst.
Emergency Jaylen Brown Trade Reaction + Timm Woods And The Return Of Dungeons And Dragons
Pardon My Take · Jul 2, 2026 · 2 h 58 min
Pardon My Take hosts react live to Jaylen Brown's trade to the 76ers and the USMNT's World Cup win, then play Dungeons & Dragons with Timm Woods.

More from The Bill Simmons Podcast

A Rams Blame Game, Indy in Purgatory, the Pack’s Back, OJ’s Helper, Aikman Vs. Buck, the Slapper, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal
Oct 19, 2026 · 1 h 59 min
Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal recap NFL Week 6, guess Week 7 lines, discuss the MLB playoffs, O.J. Simpson news and UCLA football, and trade parenting stories.
NBA One Guy (the East!), a Man City Punishment Primer, and Tom Cruise’s Bomb With J. Kyle Mann, Chris Ryan, and Van Lathan
Oct 6, 2026 · 2 h 13 min
Bill Simmons and J. Kyle Mann pick one key player per NBA Eastern Conference team, then Chris Ryan and Van Lathan discuss cable stars, Tom Cruise's 'Digger,' and Manchester City's punishment.
Drake Mayday, a Raiders Revival, Bleakest 0-3 Teams, MLB Playoffs, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal
Sep 28, 2026 · 1 h 45 min
Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal recap NFL Week 3, from Drake Maye's slump to the 3-0 Raiders, guess Week 4 lines, and discuss MLB playoffs and parenting.
LeBron’s Philly Shocker! Plus, the 2011 NBA Redraftables With Zach Lowe.
Jul 24, 2026 · 1 h 46 min
Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe react to LeBron James signing with the Philadelphia 76ers, then redraft the 2011 NBA draft class.
Spain Prevails, World Cup Winners and Losers, and Damon Vs. Leo With Chris Ryan and Anthony Dabbundo
Jul 20, 2026 · 1 h 50 min
Bill Simmons, Chris Ryan and Anthony Dabbundo react to Spain's 1-0 World Cup final win over Argentina, rank tournament winners and losers, and compare Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio.

From the publisher

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons and Joe House react to the news of the Raptors putting the Kawhi trade on hold until after the Aspiration investigation finishes. Then, they take a deeper look at the Jaylen Brown trade and why the Celtics decided to let him go. Finally, they discuss Joel Embiid’s availability in trade talks before answering some mailbag questions. (0:00) Intro (2:06) Kawhi trade to the Raptors on hold (8:00) Jaylen Brown’s advanced analytics (45:06) Are the 76ers looking to trade Embiid? (01:01:37) Mailbag Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 30, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Basketball·Sports News·Soccer