Michael Kofman
Military analyst specializing in the Russian and Ukrainian militaries; senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and host of The Russia Contingency podcast
Michael Kofman (Military analyst specializing in the Russian and Ukrainian militaries; senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and host of The Russia Contingency podcast) has appeared as a guest on 1 episode in TMT. Topics they speak about most include Russian invasion of Ukraine, Drone warfare, Wagner Group rebellion.
In their words
Positions and remarks grouped by topic, each with the exact quote and where it was said.
Russian invasion of Ukraine6 of 7
Kofman characterizes the war as an imperialistic war stemming from Russia's failed post-imperial transition.
“And this is fundamentally an imperialistic war. By a state and by an elite, by a leader, that couldn't see another way of being”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:51:16
Kofman says North Korea at one point supplied 40% of Russia's artillery ammunition.
“at one point in the war, North Korea was providing 40% of Russian artillery ammunition in this war”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:32:05
Kofman says Russia spends about 44% of its government budget and around 9-10% of GDP on the war, which is economically unsustainable.
“Russia's spending 44% of the government budget on the war, and maybe somewhere around 9% to 10% of GDP”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:31:24
Kofman predicts the war will be judged a strategic failure for Russia whose gains will not justify the cost.
“this war will be seen as a strategic failure for Russia with generational knock-on effects. Whatever Russia takes will not be worth the cost”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:21:55
Kofman argues Russia has a fundamental mismatch between Putin's political goals and its available military means.
“for a long time I had argued that Russia has a fundamental mismatch in this war between its political goals and the military means available”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:19:22
Kofman says Russian maps consistently place their forces 10 to 15 kilometers ahead of their actual positions, which harms their own operations.
“they consistently claim themselves to be something like 15 kilometers, 10 kilometers at least forward of where they actually are”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 1:45:23
Drone warfare
Kofman describes a three-to-four-month cycle of technological and tactical adaptation between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
“there's been about a three to four month cycle of evolution of technology and tactics in this war between Russian and Ukrainian forces”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 44:44
Kofman estimates that one side alone uses roughly 8,000 to 10,000 FPV drones per day.
“I'd say for FPDs, it's probably somewhere 8,000 to 10,000 per day, just those, not including other types of tactical drones”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 24:57
Kofman contends that autonomy and AI in the war are overhyped and the fight remains human-operated and manpower-intensive.
“It is very much still a human-centric war with a lot of manpower involved running, operating, and maintaining all of these capabilities”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 25:33
Kofman argues that without minefields and artillery alongside drones, Ukraine could not hold terrain with its current low force density.
“if you just had drones, you didn't have anything else. No minefields. no artillery, I don't think Ukraine would be able to hold the terrain this effectively”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 19:49
Wagner Group rebellion
Kofman states that Prigozhin was clearly killed, along with senior Wagner commanders, when his plane exploded.
“It was very obvious that he was killed, and he wasn't killed alone”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:09:33
Kofman believes Wagner's march on Moscow had no real chance of overthrowing the government.
“Oh, I don't think very close. I don't think that they had any chance of doing it”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:07:26
Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations
Kofman warns that a ceasefire without security guarantees could become a rearmament pause leaving Ukraine vulnerable to renewed war.
“ceasefires can often just become rearmament periods to renew hostilities. Ukraine is very vulnerable”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:45:17
Foreign policy of the second Trump administration
Kofman credits the Trump administration with pushing for an end to the war, arguing the Biden administration had no plan.
“because the previous administration had no plan, as long as it takes is a slogan, not a plan”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:37:40
Wagner Group
Kofman describes a 'Wagnerization' of the Russian military, which adopted Wagner's convict-based assault tactics after the group was dismantled.
“The Russian military widely adopts Wagner tactics. It begins to contract convicts in very large numbers”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:13:59
Battle of Bakhmut
Kofman argues the loss of Bakhmut was not strategically significant, citing how long Russia took to advance further.
“I personally think that the loss of Bakhmut wasn't all that important or meaningful”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 1:34:33
Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure
Kofman argues strategic bombardment has a poor historical record of achieving political aims, especially when ground campaigns are faltering.
“strategic bombardment does not have a great track record or even a good track record of achieving maximum political aims in the war”
Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 8:38
Appearances
#504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of WarfareLex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 3 h 1 min
Lex Fridman talks with military analysts Michael Kofman and Preston Stewart about the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, drone warfare, Bakhmut, Prigozhin's mutiny, leadership, and paths to peace.
Often appears with
- Lex Fridman · 1 shared episode
- Preston Stewart · 1 shared episode