What Michael Kofman has said about Drone warfare

Kofman argues that without minefields and artillery alongside drones, Ukraine could not hold terrain with its current low force density.

“if you just had drones, you didn't have anything else. No minefields. no artillery, I don't think Ukraine would be able to hold the terrain this effectively”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 19:49

Kofman contends that autonomy and AI in the war are overhyped and the fight remains human-operated and manpower-intensive.

“It is very much still a human-centric war with a lot of manpower involved running, operating, and maintaining all of these capabilities”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 25:33

Kofman estimates that one side alone uses roughly 8,000 to 10,000 FPV drones per day.

“I'd say for FPDs, it's probably somewhere 8,000 to 10,000 per day, just those, not including other types of tactical drones”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 24:57

Kofman describes a three-to-four-month cycle of technological and tactical adaptation between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

“there's been about a three to four month cycle of evolution of technology and tactics in this war between Russian and Ukrainian forces”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 44:44