What Michael Kofman has said about Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kofman says 2026 has been Ukraine's best year of ground combat performance since the summer 2023 offensive.

“most people recognize that this year for Ukraine is the best year of combat performance for them on the ground since probably about the summer 2023 offensive”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 8:39

Kofman says Russian maps consistently place their forces 10 to 15 kilometers ahead of their actual positions, which harms their own operations.

“they consistently claim themselves to be something like 15 kilometers, 10 kilometers at least forward of where they actually are”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 1:45:23

Kofman argues Russia has a fundamental mismatch between Putin's political goals and its available military means.

“for a long time I had argued that Russia has a fundamental mismatch in this war between its political goals and the military means available”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:19:22

Kofman predicts the war will be judged a strategic failure for Russia whose gains will not justify the cost.

“this war will be seen as a strategic failure for Russia with generational knock-on effects. Whatever Russia takes will not be worth the cost”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:21:55

Kofman says Russia spends about 44% of its government budget and around 9-10% of GDP on the war, which is economically unsustainable.

“Russia's spending 44% of the government budget on the war, and maybe somewhere around 9% to 10% of GDP”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:31:24

Kofman says North Korea at one point supplied 40% of Russia's artillery ammunition.

“at one point in the war, North Korea was providing 40% of Russian artillery ammunition in this war”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:32:05

Kofman characterizes the war as an imperialistic war stemming from Russia's failed post-imperial transition.

“And this is fundamentally an imperialistic war. By a state and by an elite, by a leader, that couldn't see another way of being”

Lex Fridman Podcast: #504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare (Nov 10, 2026) · Listen from 2:51:16