What Nate Silver has said about Opinion polling accuracy

Silver notes that polls underestimated Democrats by five to ten points in the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia races, one of the largest misses in a well-polled general election.

“In New Jersey and Virginia last year, the polls were five to ten points low on Democrats”

The Ezra Klein Show: Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm (Oct 27, 2026) · Listen from 19:57

Silver explains that screening likely voters by self-reported intent produces very Democratic samples, while models using other data show more modest Democratic results.

“if you ask people, are you going to vote? How enthusiastic are you about voting? That produces a very democratic sample”

The Ezra Klein Show: Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm (Oct 27, 2026) · Listen from 24:59

Silver says his gut is contradictory this year, and he worries more about state polls being wrong than the national picture being miscalibrated.

“I worry more about the state polls being wrong than the national race being miscalibrated”

The Ezra Klein Show: Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm (Oct 27, 2026) · Listen from 50:50