What Nate Silver has said about 2026 United States midterm elections

Silver argues that if the election goes as polls suggest, it would in some ways mark the end of the Trump era and make Trump a super lame duck.

“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era, I think”

The Ezra Klein Show: Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm (Oct 27, 2026) · Listen from 2:43

Silver says the average midterm swings 7.5 points against the president's party, but this year the swing looks closer to 11 points.

“in the average midterm, the environment shifts by seven and a half points against the president's party versus the previous presidential year. This year, it looks more like 11 points”

The Ezra Klein Show: Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm (Oct 27, 2026) · Listen from 5:27