Ron Brownstein

Brownstein expects no repeat of the 2018 surge of new voters, partly because of negative memories of the Biden presidency.

“I don't see that big surge that Democrats had in 2018 repeating itself”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:38:18

Brownstein predicts Republican voter drop-off will matter more in 2026 than new Democratic voters or party-switchers.

“I think subtraction is going to be a bigger issue in this election than addition”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:36:05

Brownstein ranks Alaska as Democrats' strongest Senate opportunity among Trump-won states after North Carolina, followed by Ohio.

“So I think Alaska is the strongest. By conventional measures, you'd have to say Ohio is the second”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:29:09

Brownstein notes that, unlike in 2018, most House seats Democrats are targeting are more heavily non-college white than average.

“most of the seats that Democrats are targeting this year in the House in very distinct counterpoint to 2018 have more non-college whites than the national average”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:10:49

Brownstein criticizes the Sanders-Warren orbit backing Platner as prioritizing an intra-party fight over defeating Collins.

“they seem to me more interested in beating Schumer in the primary than in beating Collins in the general”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:18:53

Brownstein argues the Democratic nominee's task in Maine is reassuring anti-Trump voters rather than mobilizing new ones.

“The job of the Democratic Senate candidate in Maine is to reassure the majority who already think Trump and the Republicans are taking the state in the wrong direction”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:17:42

Brownstein argues Graham Platner's vulnerabilities align with Susan Collins's strengths, especially among older women.

“Plattner makes it a lot harder than it has to be because his vulnerabilities, I think, map ominously over her strengths”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:16:28

Brownstein argues Iowa is harder for Democrats than Ohio, so Josh Turek is unlikely to win unless Sherrod Brown also wins.

“by every measure, I can't see Turek winning before Brown wins”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:32:12

Brownstein predicts Trump's approval rating on election day 2026 will at best be in the low 40s, below his 2018 level.

“I think at best it's going to be in the low 40s”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:09:23