What Ron Brownstein has said about 2026 United States midterm elections

Brownstein notes that, unlike in 2018, most House seats Democrats are targeting are more heavily non-college white than average.

“most of the seats that Democrats are targeting this year in the House in very distinct counterpoint to 2018 have more non-college whites than the national average”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:10:49

Brownstein ranks Alaska as Democrats' strongest Senate opportunity among Trump-won states after North Carolina, followed by Ohio.

“So I think Alaska is the strongest. By conventional measures, you'd have to say Ohio is the second”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:29:09

Brownstein predicts Republican voter drop-off will matter more in 2026 than new Democratic voters or party-switchers.

“I think subtraction is going to be a bigger issue in this election than addition”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:36:05

Brownstein expects no repeat of the 2018 surge of new voters, partly because of negative memories of the Biden presidency.

“I don't see that big surge that Democrats had in 2018 repeating itself”

Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:38:18