2026 United States midterm elections

Event in Politics

2026 United States midterm elections has come up in 43 episodes across 9 podcasts in TMT, including Pod Save America, The Megyn Kelly Show, REAL AF with Andy Frisella. 12 people have made recorded remarks about it.

What people said

Dan PfeifferCo-host of Pod Save America, author of the Message Box newsletter, and former White House communications director

Pfeiffer recommends watching Kentucky's 6th district as an early indicator because Kentucky's polls close first.
“if you're looking for a canary in the coal mine in either direction, how things come in in that Kentucky six race”
Pod Save America: Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms? (Oct 18, 2026) · Listen from 51:21
Pfeiffer argues Republicans have fewer tools than in 2006 because TV advertising matters less.
“I do feel like they have fewer levers to pull than they did in 2006, in part because TV ads clearly matter less than they did back then”
Pod Save America: Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms? (Oct 18, 2026) · Listen from 7:47
Prediction · due Nov 2026
Pfeiffer predicts Democrats will win all nine Republican-held House seats that Kamala Harris carried.
“I think you can assume that given this political environment, Democrats will win all nine seats that Kamala Harris won”
Pod Save America: Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido (Sep 27, 2026) · Listen from 28:38
Pfeiffer argues that Trump's visit to Alabama's 2nd district could backfire by energizing Black voters in a deeply red area.
“So I think there's a very real chance that Trump could actually, in trying to do no harm, could do real harm even in this very, very deeply red district”
Pod Save America: Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido (Sep 27, 2026) · Listen from 3:19

All 17 quotes from Dan Pfeiffer →

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama

Favreau argues widespread anger at incumbent leadership in states and Congress will affect the midterm results.
“I think that there's something about incumbency and people just being fucking pissed at the leadership in their state and in Congress”
Pod Save America: Trump Plans to Shove What Where? (Oct 6, 2026) · Listen from 18:39
Favreau argues Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning the national party brand because far fewer voters see them as too far left.
“Only 35% say their actual Democratic Senate candidate is too far left. And so the candidate brands are all running, outrunning the national party brand”
Pod Save America: Trump Plans to Shove What Where? (Oct 6, 2026) · Listen from 11:07
Favreau argues that maximizing House gains in 2026 would help a future Democratic president pass an agenda after 2028.
“that's going to make it more likely for that Democratic president to actually be able to pass a real agenda through Congress”
Pod Save America: Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido (Sep 27, 2026) · Listen from 35:00
Favreau predicts Trump will claim fraud if Republicans lose the midterms.
“clearly, as sure as the sun comes up, is going to cry foul if Republicans lose the midterms”
Pod Save America: Trump's Explosive Diarrhea of the Mouth (Jul 17, 2026) · Listen from 13:37

All 12 quotes from Jon Favreau →

Amy WalterEditor of the Cook Political Report cited on special election predictiveness

Walter attributes Democratic underperformance in blue states to a lack of elasticity in highly polarized electorates.
“A state like Minnesota, New York, Maine, there's not a lot of elasticity. It's as polarized as it's ever going to get, right?”
Pod Save America: Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms? (Oct 18, 2026) · Listen from 59:48
Walter argues a wave election is uneven, more like a tornado than a uniform sweep.
“I think people hear wave and they assume that it means that everything goes. And it's like, it's more, it's more like a tornado”
Pod Save America: Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms? (Oct 18, 2026) · Listen from 54:18
Walter argues the Democratic base now expects more than a check on Trump, posing a challenge for party leaders in 2027.
“They want a real change to the system and they want something more substantive than just, you know, we're kind of moving around the edges”
Pod Save America: Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms? (Oct 18, 2026) · Listen from 21:05
Walter says Republican non-turnout, the 'undertow,' determines whether Democrats have a good, great, or historic night.
“that, I feel like, is the difference between Democrats having a good night, a great night, or like a historic night is the undertow piece”
Pod Save America: Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms? (Oct 18, 2026) · Listen from 18:44

All 5 quotes from Amy Walter →

Tommy VietorCo-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World who conducted the Josh Turek interview

Vietor expresses concern that the favorable polls may reflect response bias from Democrats being more willing to answer surveys.
“I'm worried about the potential response bias. I'm worried about Democrats answering polls”
Pod Save America: Trump Plans to Shove What Where? (Oct 6, 2026) · Listen from 7:56
Vietor argues Trump attacked Salazar because he cares only about his ego, not his House majority.
“He doesn't care about you. He doesn't care about his majority. He just cares about himself and his own ego”
Pod Save America: Impeach Pete Hegseth? (Sep 29, 2026) · Listen from 48:20
Vietor urges Democrats to more strongly back diplomacy and oppose regime-change wars.
“I think Democrats need to be more full-throated in support of diplomatic solutions to problems, stop being afraid of their own shadow on this stuff”
Pod Save America: 80-Year-Old Man Loses War (Jun 16, 2026) · Listen from 23:21
Vietor expects the midterms to be a referendum on Trump decided by turnout, favoring the more motivated Democratic base.
“I think they're going to be a referendum on Trump and the party in charge. I also think it's a turnout election”
Pod Save America: Trump Is Falling. Are Democrats Rising? (May 5, 2026) · Listen from 1:04:10

All 5 quotes from Tommy Vietor →

Andy FrisellaShow intro voiceover by host Andy Frisella

Frisella says he will still vote because he believes high turnout can overcome the margin that can be cheated.
“I believe that they can cheat a certain percentage. And I believe that if that percentage is, if the votes exceed that percentage, then they cannot cheat”
REAL AF with Andy Frisella: 1064. Andy & DJ CTI: Iran Terror Plot Fears, Nor'easter Slams East Coast & Rising NASCAR Star Attacked (Sep 29, 2026) · Listen from 33:38
Frisella says that if Republicans lose the midterms, the blame lies solely with Trump and the Republicans, not with disillusioned voters.
“If the Republicans get their asses beat in midterms, it is nobody's fault except Trump and the Republicans”
REAL AF with Andy Frisella: 1064. Andy & DJ CTI: Iran Terror Plot Fears, Nor'easter Slams East Coast & Rising NASCAR Star Attacked (Sep 29, 2026) · Listen from 30:26
Frisella argues that ordinary Americans care about living costs rather than Iran's nuclear program, and that Trump's dismissive comments demoralize voters.
“No one in America gives a fuck about Iran having a nuke”
REAL AF with Andy Frisella: 1064. Andy & DJ CTI: Iran Terror Plot Fears, Nor'easter Slams East Coast & Rising NASCAR Star Attacked (Sep 29, 2026) · Listen from 24:50
Prediction · due Nov 2026
Frisella predicts Trump will lose the midterms to the left by failing to deliver on promises.
“Yes, but He is going to hand the midterms over to the left”
REAL AF with Andy Frisella: 1021. Andy & DJ CTI: Trump Assassination Attempt Charges, Food Stamp Recipients Driving Lambos & JPMorgan Executive Sexually Abused (May 1, 2026) · Listen from 35:07

All 5 quotes from Andy Frisella →

Ron BrownsteinVeteran political journalist and analyst, columnist for CNN and Bloomberg

Brownstein expects no repeat of the 2018 surge of new voters, partly because of negative memories of the Biden presidency.
“I don't see that big surge that Democrats had in 2018 repeating itself”
Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:38:18
Brownstein predicts Republican voter drop-off will matter more in 2026 than new Democratic voters or party-switchers.
“I think subtraction is going to be a bigger issue in this election than addition”
Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:36:05
Brownstein ranks Alaska as Democrats' strongest Senate opportunity among Trump-won states after North Carolina, followed by Ohio.
“So I think Alaska is the strongest. By conventional measures, you'd have to say Ohio is the second”
Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:29:09
Brownstein notes that, unlike in 2018, most House seats Democrats are targeting are more heavily non-college white than average.
“most of the seats that Democrats are targeting this year in the House in very distinct counterpoint to 2018 have more non-college whites than the national average”
Pod Save America: Cage Match Inside the White House (Jun 12, 2026) · Listen from 1:10:49

What Ron Brownstein has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Robert PapeAmerican political scientist, professor at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats

Pape argues a Democratic victory in 2024 would not have prevented the current violence because it is driven by underlying social change.
“I'm not sure how much it would have changed, Chris, because it's a function of the social changes”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 1:21:50
Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts that whichever side loses the midterms will mount violent protests potentially larger than January 6, 2021.
“We are likely to see violent protests, whoever loses, that may be larger than January 6th”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 8:22
Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts the midterms will be the most dangerous US elections in living memory, with the danger concentrated on the certification date of January 6, 2027.
“This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 12:31

What Robert Pape has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Heather WilliamsPresident of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Williams estimates a roughly plus-four Democratic environment that could flip over 600 legislative seats.
“roughly a plus four environment that we're seeing at our ballot level. Um, that means that we could flip as many as 600 plus seats”
Pod Save America: Trump Held a Fair And (Almost) No One Came (Jun 30, 2026) · Listen from 1:14:58
Williams reports Democrats have already flipped 30 state legislative seats this cycle, some in deep-red districts.
“We've already flipped 30 seats. Some of these have been in ruby red districts”
Pod Save America: Trump Held a Fair And (Almost) No One Came (Jun 30, 2026) · Listen from 1:09:39
Williams says winning 19 seats in key battlegrounds would create six new majorities and four new trifectas.
“winning just 19 seats in those states will build six new majorities and four new trifectas”
Pod Save America: Trump Held a Fair And (Almost) No One Came (Jun 30, 2026) · Listen from 1:02:39

What Heather Williams has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Michael KnowlesAmerican conservative commentator and host of The Michael Knowles Show at The Daily Wire

Knowles acknowledged that historical precedent points to a Republican midterm rout, with court rulings an open question.
“by all historical precedent, Republicans should be probably blown out of the water in the midterms”
The Megyn Kelly Show: What Got CUT From CBS' Netanyahu Interview, Plus Spencer Pratt's Secret Ingredient, with Michael Knowles | Ep. 1314 (May 11, 2026) · Listen from 1:03:45
Knowles said court decisions and redistricting could net Republicans about 14 House seats.
“we are looking at a potential gain of 14 congressional seats for Republicans”
The Megyn Kelly Show: What Got CUT From CBS' Netanyahu Interview, Plus Spencer Pratt's Secret Ingredient, with Michael Knowles | Ep. 1314 (May 11, 2026) · Listen from 59:57
Prediction · due Nov 2026
Knowles predicts Republicans could lose both the House and Senate if the Iran war continues into the summer.
“if this continues into May, June, July, I mean, the Republicans certainly can kiss the House of Representatives goodbye, but they might kiss the Senate goodbye”
The Megyn Kelly Show: Sham "Dignity" Amnesty Bill, and the Crucial Lebanon Factor, with Michael Knowles and Ana Kasparian | Ep. 1292 (Apr 9, 2026) · Listen from 39:42

What Michael Knowles has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Joe KentFormer U.S. official who resigned and disputed stated motives for the Iran conflict

Prediction · due Nov 2028
Kent says he has no plans to run for Congress in the midterms or for president in 2028.
“I have no plans to run for president in 2028. Running for Congress is challenging enough”
The Shawn Ryan Show: #291 Joe Kent - His Message to President Trump on Ending the War With Iran (Mar 26, 2026) · Listen from 1:41:44
Kent says the MAGA coalition is already fractured by the administration's actions and that he is trying to preserve rather than break it.
“I'm not fracturing the coalition the coalition is very fractured because of our actions”
The Shawn Ryan Show: #291 Joe Kent - His Message to President Trump on Ending the War With Iran (Mar 26, 2026) · Listen from 1:37:34
Prediction · due Nov 2026
Kent predicts the war's effect on gas prices and cost of living will drive voters against the party in power in the midterms.
“they're gonna be like, oh, the party that's in power right now screwed this up. I'm gonna vote for the other guy”
The Shawn Ryan Show: #291 Joe Kent - His Message to President Trump on Ending the War With Iran (Mar 26, 2026) · Listen from 1:32:33

What Joe Kent has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Norm EisenAmerican lawyer, former Obama White House ethics czar, co-founder of Democracy Defenders Fund and publisher of The Contrarian

Prediction · due Nov 2026
Eisen predicts Republicans will pay a serious electoral price for the corruption scandals in November.
“And I think there's going to be a very serious price to pay come November”
Pod Save America: 50 Shades of Legal Gray (May 24, 2026) · Listen from 55:03
Eisen says, based on his groups' litigation record, voters can be confident the elections will be free and fair.
“I think voters can be confident that there will be free and fair voting no matter what he tries”
Pod Save America: 50 Shades of Legal Gray (May 24, 2026) · Listen from 31:29

What Norm Eisen has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Mark HalperinAmerican political journalist and host of the podcast Next Up

Halperin said Trump losing the House could actually help him pass legislation in his final two years.
“for getting stuff done in his last two years, he may be better off losing the House”
The Megyn Kelly Show: Iran Deal Risks and Fallout, with Curt Mills and Mark Halperin, Plus Jennifer Newsom's Wild Comments, with Damilare Sonoiki and Stepfanie Tyler | Ep. 1291 (Apr 8, 2026) · Listen from 54:19
Prediction · due Nov 2026
Halperin predicted Republicans will almost certainly lose the House majority but that the Senate map makes a Democratic takeover very unlikely.
“They'll almost certainly lose the majority, but we may not see a shellacking”
The Megyn Kelly Show: Iran Deal Risks and Fallout, with Curt Mills and Mark Halperin, Plus Jennifer Newsom's Wild Comments, with Damilare Sonoiki and Stepfanie Tyler | Ep. 1291 (Apr 8, 2026) · Listen from 54:19

What Mark Halperin has said about 2026 United States midterm elections →

Predictions

Prediction · due Nov 2026Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer predicts Democrats will win all nine Republican-held House seats that Kamala Harris carried.
“I think you can assume that given this political environment, Democrats will win all nine seats that Kamala Harris won”
Pod Save America: Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido (Sep 27, 2026) · Listen from 28:38 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Jan 2027Robert Pape
Pape predicts that whichever side loses the midterms will mount violent protests potentially larger than January 6, 2021.
“We are likely to see violent protests, whoever loses, that may be larger than January 6th”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 8:22 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Jan 2027Robert Pape
Pape predicts the midterms will be the most dangerous US elections in living memory, with the danger concentrated on the certification date of January 6, 2027.
“This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes”
Modern Wisdom: “This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154 (Sep 24, 2026) · Listen from 12:31 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Xueqin Jiang
Jiang predicts a decade of economic collapse and says the midterms will disappoint Democrats hoping to constrain Trump's war powers.
“I think we're in for a rough 10 years. I think the global economy collapses. I think the US economy collapses. I think the midterms will not turn out the way people expect”
Danny Jones Podcast: #425 - "They Control Trump & Netanyahu" The Secret Family No One Talks About | Professor Jiang (Aug 24, 2026) · Listen from 3:56:44 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Ben Swann
Swann predicts that Republicans will lose the 2026 midterm elections.
“And they know that when they lose the midterms, because they're going to lose the midterms at this point”
Digital Social Hour: The Epstein Email Pattern Nobody Can Explain... | Ben Swann | DSH #1980 (May 25, 2026) · Listen from 44:58 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Norm Eisen
Eisen predicts Republicans will pay a serious electoral price for the corruption scandals in November.
“And I think there's going to be a very serious price to pay come November”
Pod Save America: 50 Shades of Legal Gray (May 24, 2026) · Listen from 55:03 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer predicts Democrats would remain favored to win the House majority even if they lose the Virginia redistricting case.
“I still think even if we lost Virginia, I still think Democrats would be favored to take the majority”
Pod Save America: It's One Ballroom, Donald, How Much Could It Cost? (May 8, 2026) · Listen from 42:52 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Jon Favreau
Favreau predicts Democrats remain favored to win the House, though redistricting could reduce their gains.
“I still think Democrats are favored to win the House, but this definitely could put a dent in the number of seats that we pick up”
Pod Save America: Trump Is Falling. Are Democrats Rising? (May 5, 2026) · Listen from 30:28 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Andy Frisella
Frisella predicts Trump will lose the midterms to the left by failing to deliver on promises.
“Yes, but He is going to hand the midterms over to the left”
REAL AF with Andy Frisella: 1021. Andy & DJ CTI: Trump Assassination Attempt Charges, Food Stamp Recipients Driving Lambos & JPMorgan Executive Sexually Abused (May 1, 2026) · Listen from 35:07 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Prediction · due Nov 2026Michael Knowles
Knowles predicts Republicans could lose both the House and Senate if the Iran war continues into the summer.
“if this continues into May, June, July, I mean, the Republicans certainly can kiss the House of Representatives goodbye, but they might kiss the Senate goodbye”
The Megyn Kelly Show: Sham "Dignity" Amnesty Bill, and the Crucial Lebanon Factor, with Michael Knowles and Ana Kasparian | Ep. 1292 (Apr 9, 2026) · Listen from 39:42 · 2026 United States midterm elections

Coverage over time

Mar 2026Oct 2026

Episodes discussing it, by month of release.

Podcasts

Pod Save America · 25 episodes
The Megyn Kelly Show · 9 episodes
REAL AF with Andy Frisella · 3 episodes
Live Free with Josh Howerton · 1 episode
Modern Wisdom · 1 episode
Danny Jones Podcast · 1 episode
Digital Social Hour · 1 episode
The Tucker Carlson Show · 1 episode
The Shawn Ryan Show · 1 episode

Episodes

Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?
Pod Save America · Oct 18, 2026 · 1 h 11 min
Dan Pfeiffer and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter assess the 2026 midterm landscape two weeks out, covering Senate and House races, polling, Trump, and redistricting.
Trump Plans to Shove What Where?
Pod Save America · Oct 6, 2026 · 1 h 21 min
Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor assess Democrats' red-state polling surge before the 2026 midterms, and Vietor interviews Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.
Impeach Pete Hegseth?
Pod Save America · Sep 29, 2026 · 58 min
Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor and Jon Lovett discuss diesel prices, a Republican data center bill, rogue AI models, a possible Pete Hegseth impeachment and Trump's taxpayer-funded ads.
1064. Andy & DJ CTI: Iran Terror Plot Fears, Nor'easter Slams East Coast & Rising NASCAR Star Attacked
REAL AF with Andy Frisella · Sep 29, 2026 · 1 h 25 min
Andy Frisella and DJ discuss a foiled suspected Iranian plot at RAF Fairford, Andrew Bailey's FBI resignation, voter demoralization, a Nor'easter, sports fights and a pulled GoFundMe.
James Talarico’s HERETIC Pastor Exposed in Undercover Video (Pastors RESPOND) | Live Free with Josh Howerton
Live Free with Josh Howerton · Sep 28, 2026 · 1 h 46 min
Lakepointe pastors Josh Howerton, Carlos Erazo, and Paul Cunningham discuss 2 Timothy 4, outline five common false teachings, and critique a viral video of James Talarico's pastor.
Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido
Pod Save America · Sep 27, 2026 · 1 h 2 min
Live at the Texas Tribune Festival, the Pod Save America hosts assess Texas and national midterm races, Xi Jinping's visit, and interview congressional candidate Bobby Pulido.
“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154
Modern Wisdom · Sep 24, 2026 · 1 h 43 min
Political scientist Robert Pape tells Chris Williamson that mass public support for political violence makes the coming US midterms the most dangerous election in living memory.
#425 - "They Control Trump & Netanyahu" The Secret Family No One Talks About | Professor Jiang
Danny Jones Podcast · Aug 24, 2026 · 4 h 4 min
Professor Xueqin Jiang tells Danny Jones how China really works and argues Chabad-linked messianic religious beliefs drive U.S. and Israeli policy.
The Search for an Exciting Moderate
Pod Save America · Jul 26, 2026 · 1 h 15 min
Jon Favreau and Matt Yglesias debate how a moderate, center-left Democrat could gain attention, win the 2028 presidential primary, and appeal to swing voters.
The Democratic Party's Civil War
Pod Save America · Jul 19, 2026 · 1 h 6 min
Dan Pfeiffer and Run for Something's Amanda Litman discuss Graham Platner's Maine collapse, DSA's rise, the Michigan Senate primary, AIPAC spending, and down-ballot recruitment.