#504 – Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Drones and the Future of Warfare

Episode of Lex Fridman Podcast · November 10, 2026 · 3 h 1 min

Lex Fridman talks with military analysts Michael Kofman and Preston Stewart about the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, drone warfare, Bakhmut, Prigozhin's mutiny, leadership, and paths to peace.

Summary

Lex Fridman hosted military analyst Michael Kofman and veteran-turned-commentator Preston Stewart for a late-night conversation about the Russia-Ukraine war in its fifth year. Kofman argued that 2026 was Ukraine's best year of ground combat performance since the summer 2023 offensive and Russia's worst since winter 2023, with Russia increasingly relying on a strategic bombardment campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure that he said historically rarely achieves political aims. Stewart outlined the geography of the front, from Sumy and Kharkiv through the Donbas "fortress belt" to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Much of the discussion covered the drone-dominated "kill zone": FPV, reconnaissance, and fiber-optic drones, Russian infiltration tactics, and Ukrainian methods of suppressing enemy drone units before assaults. Both guests stressed that drones are human-operated and manpower-intensive, that videos overstate hit rates, and that artillery and minefields remain essential. Stewart contrasted Western mission-command culture with Russia's top-down approach, and Kofman described Russian falsification of battlefield maps as a cultural problem that costs Russian lives and may distort Putin's picture of the war.

Kofman reviewed analysts' misjudgments about the 2022 invasion, the Battle of Bakhmut and what he called "Bakhmut syndrome," and the Wagner Group's 2023 mutiny, Prigozhin's death, and the subsequent "Wagnerization" of the Russian military. He argued Russia suffers a fundamental mismatch between Putin's maximalist political goals and its military means, while Ukraine's goals are better aligned with its performance.

Both guests criticized the Trump administration's handling of the war, with Kofman also faulting the Biden administration and European allies for lacking a plan to end it. Kofman was pessimistic about near-term peace, warning that a ceasefire without security guarantees could become a rearmament pause like the Minsk agreements. The episode closed with reflections on the nature of war and stories of rescues by Ukraine's Code 9.2 unit.

Chapters

  1. 8:25

    State of the war in its fifth year

    Kofman and Stewart describe Ukraine's improved battlefield performance, Russia's strike campaign, and the geography of the front.

  2. 21:59

    Drone warfare and the kill zone

    The guests explain artillery, FPV and reconnaissance drones, fiber-optic drones, infiltration tactics, and how the two sides fight for drone superiority.

  3. 49:41

    Future of warfare and the U.S. military

    Discussion of how representative the war is of future conflict, air superiority versus air denial, and lessons for the United States.

  4. 59:10

    Who is winning the war

    The guests resist a scoreboard framing, discussing initiative, collapse risk, and levels of military analysis from tactics to strategy.

  5. 1:10:47

    Russia's 2022 invasion and analytic lessons

    Kofman reviews what analysts got right and wrong about the invasion, and Stewart contrasts Western mission command with Russian top-down command.

  6. 1:26:34

    Wagner and the Battle of Bakhmut

    Kofman describes Wagner's rise, the siege of Bakhmut, and the political logic behind 'Bakhmut syndrome'.

  7. 1:42:17

    Controlling territory and false reporting

    The guests discuss what it means to control terrain and how Russian falsified maps shape operations and Putin's perceptions.

  8. 1:54:02

    War optimism and political leadership

    Discussion of overoptimism in military and political leadership, Afghanistan, and the military's advisory role in decisions to go to war.

  9. 2:02:26

    Prigozhin's mutiny

    Kofman and Stewart recount the 2023 Wagner rebellion, Prigozhin's death, and the Wagnerization of the Russian military.

  10. 2:16:26

    Putin vs Zelensky and the means-ends mismatch

    The guests assess both leaders as commanders in chief, Russia's maximalist aims, manpower, economics, and external support.

  11. 2:34:38

    Trump administration policy

    Both guests critique U.S. engagement under Trump, with Kofman also faulting the Biden administration and European allies for lacking a plan.

  12. 2:43:34

    Paths to peace and the nature of war

    Kofman outlines ceasefire prospects and risks of a renewed war, then both reflect on war, Russia's imperial legacy, and stories of hope.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman argues strategic bombardment has a poor historical record of achieving political aims, especially when ground campaigns are faltering.

    “strategic bombardment does not have a great track record or even a good track record of achieving maximum political aims in the war”

    Listen from 8:38 · Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman says 2026 has been Ukraine's best year of ground combat performance since the summer 2023 offensive.

    “most people recognize that this year for Ukraine is the best year of combat performance for them on the ground since probably about the summer 2023 offensive”

    Listen from 8:39 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman argues that without minefields and artillery alongside drones, Ukraine could not hold terrain with its current low force density.

    “if you just had drones, you didn't have anything else. No minefields. no artillery, I don't think Ukraine would be able to hold the terrain this effectively”

    Listen from 19:49 · Drone warfare

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman estimates that one side alone uses roughly 8,000 to 10,000 FPV drones per day.

    “I'd say for FPDs, it's probably somewhere 8,000 to 10,000 per day, just those, not including other types of tactical drones”

    Listen from 24:57 · Drone warfare

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman contends that autonomy and AI in the war are overhyped and the fight remains human-operated and manpower-intensive.

    “It is very much still a human-centric war with a lot of manpower involved running, operating, and maintaining all of these capabilities”

    Listen from 25:33 · Drone warfare

  • Preston Stewart

    Stewart says that, contrary to the impression from videos, it often takes 10 to 30 small drones to destroy a tank.

    “Realistically, we're seeing 10, 20, I think upwards of 30 of these small drones at times being utilized to actually eliminate a tank”

    Listen from 28:35 · Drone warfare

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman describes a three-to-four-month cycle of technological and tactical adaptation between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

    “there's been about a three to four month cycle of evolution of technology and tactics in this war between Russian and Ukrainian forces”

    Listen from 44:44 · Drone warfare

  • Preston Stewart

    Stewart believes the war has advanced warfare by decades in a short time because it is fought between modern economies.

    “I think we jumped decades in terms of what warfare will be in a very short period of time because of where it's playing out”

    Listen from 50:12 · Drone warfare

  • Preston Stewart

    Stewart argues Ukraine's bottom-up, Western-style initiative contrasts with Russia's persistently top-down command culture.

    “Whereas on the Russian side, still to today is still top down driven. They are given their orders. They are given their place on a map”

    Listen from 1:24:49 · Mission command

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman argues the loss of Bakhmut was not strategically significant, citing how long Russia took to advance further.

    “I personally think that the loss of Bakhmut wasn't all that important or meaningful”

    Listen from 1:34:33 · Battle of Bakhmut

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman says Russian maps consistently place their forces 10 to 15 kilometers ahead of their actual positions, which harms their own operations.

    “they consistently claim themselves to be something like 15 kilometers, 10 kilometers at least forward of where they actually are”

    Listen from 1:45:23 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Preston Stewart

    Stewart argues it is not the military's role to decide whether to go to war, only to advise on capabilities and options.

    “it's not the military's job to make the decision to go to war or not”

    Listen from 2:00:57 · Mission command

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman believes Wagner's march on Moscow had no real chance of overthrowing the government.

    “Oh, I don't think very close. I don't think that they had any chance of doing it”

    Listen from 2:07:26 · Wagner Group rebellion

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman states that Prigozhin was clearly killed, along with senior Wagner commanders, when his plane exploded.

    “It was very obvious that he was killed, and he wasn't killed alone”

    Listen from 2:09:33 · Wagner Group rebellion

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman describes a 'Wagnerization' of the Russian military, which adopted Wagner's convict-based assault tactics after the group was dismantled.

    “The Russian military widely adopts Wagner tactics. It begins to contract convicts in very large numbers”

    Listen from 2:13:59 · Wagner Group

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman argues Russia has a fundamental mismatch between Putin's political goals and its available military means.

    “for a long time I had argued that Russia has a fundamental mismatch in this war between its political goals and the military means available”

    Listen from 2:19:22 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman predicts the war will be judged a strategic failure for Russia whose gains will not justify the cost.

    “this war will be seen as a strategic failure for Russia with generational knock-on effects. Whatever Russia takes will not be worth the cost”

    Listen from 2:21:55 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Preston Stewart

    Stewart admits he expected Western sanctions to damage Russia's economy far more than they have.

    “I thought that the sanctions would have done a lot more damage. At this point, I think a lot of people did, and it just hasn't”

    Listen from 2:28:44 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman says Russia spends about 44% of its government budget and around 9-10% of GDP on the war, which is economically unsustainable.

    “Russia's spending 44% of the government budget on the war, and maybe somewhere around 9% to 10% of GDP”

    Listen from 2:31:24 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman says North Korea at one point supplied 40% of Russia's artillery ammunition.

    “at one point in the war, North Korea was providing 40% of Russian artillery ammunition in this war”

    Listen from 2:32:05 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Linked moment · 2:36:19Skip to 2:36:19 using a listen link in the info box.

    Preston Stewart

    Stewart suggests Trump underestimated how hard ending the war would be and lost focus, ceding U.S. leadership and leverage.

    “I get the impression that maybe the president thought this would be easier to resolve than it has been, maybe lost some focus”

    Listen from 2:36:19 · Foreign policy of the second Trump administration

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman credits the Trump administration with pushing for an end to the war, arguing the Biden administration had no plan.

    “because the previous administration had no plan, as long as it takes is a slogan, not a plan”

    Listen from 2:37:40 · Foreign policy of the second Trump administration

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman warns that a ceasefire without security guarantees could become a rearmament pause leaving Ukraine vulnerable to renewed war.

    “ceasefires can often just become rearmament periods to renew hostilities. Ukraine is very vulnerable”

    Listen from 2:45:17 · Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations

  • Michael Kofman

    Kofman characterizes the war as an imperialistic war stemming from Russia's failed post-imperial transition.

    “And this is fundamentally an imperialistic war. By a state and by an elite, by a leader, that couldn't see another way of being”

    Listen from 2:51:16 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

People

In the conversation

  • Lex FridmanAmerican podcaster and AI researcher; same host, second diarization label covering the interview segments
  • Michael KofmanMilitary analyst specializing in the Russian and Ukrainian militaries; senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and host of The Russia Contingency podcast
  • Preston StewartWest Point graduate and Afghanistan veteran who covers the Ukraine war on YouTube, the War and Conflict podcast, and the Defense Tech News newsletter

Discussed

Topics

More from Lex Fridman Podcast

From the publisher

Preston Stewart is a West Point graduate and Afghanistan veteran who covers the Ukraine war extensively on his YouTube channel, his podcast called War and Conflict, and his newsletter called Defense Tech News. Michael Kofman is a world-class military analyst specializing in the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and he hosts The Russia Contingency podcast on the War on the Rocks platform. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep504-sc See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/preston-stewart-michael-kofman-transcript CONTACT LEX: Feedback – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring – join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring Other – other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact EPISODE LINKS: Michael’s X: https://x.com/KofmanMichael Michael’s Podcast: https://warontherocks.com/premium/therussiacontingency/ Preston’s YouTube: https://youtube.com/@prestonstewart Preston’s X: https://x.com/prestonstew_ SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: GiveDirectly: Direct donations to people living in extreme poverty. Go to https://givedirectly.org/lex Fin: AI agent for customer service. Go to https://fin.ai/lex LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://drinkLMNT.com/lex Wispr Flow: AI-powered voice dictation app. Go to https://wisprflow.ai/lex Shop: Turns any AI agent into your personal shopper. Go to https://shop.md/lex Perplexity: AI-powered answer engine. Go to https://perplexity.ai/ OUTLINE: (00:00) – Introduction (00:43) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections (08:20) – State of the war in Ukraine (21:59) – Drone warfare and the kill zone (59:09) – Who is winning the war? (1:10:46) – Military analysis of Russia’s 2022 invasion (1:26:34) – Battle of B…

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 14, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·Technology·History