Last Call for Takes!

Episode of Pod Save America · November 3, 2026 · 1 h 25 min

On Election Day 2026, Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, and Tommy Vietor review final Times/Siena polls in Senate battlegrounds and discuss what results would mean for Democrats and 2028.

Summary

Recorded on the day of the 2026 midterm elections, the episode opened with the hosts mocking Donald Trump's final pre-election event at the Lincoln Memorial, where he discussed algae and renovations to the Reflecting Pool. They reviewed a Semafor list of Trump's political errors, with Lovett citing Ken Paxton's nomination over John Cornyn in Texas, and discussed reporting about renewed U.S. strikes on Iran; Vietor judged renewed conflict more likely than not but called claims about a nuclear strike made up.

The bulk of the episode walked through the final New York Times/Siena polls state by state. In Michigan, the hosts discussed Rep. Haley Stevens's surprise endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and her awkward CNN interview with Anderson Cooper; Favreau argued that critics' demands of El-Sayed were really about his Israel positions, Lovett said Stevens did not get to be the arbiter of antisemitism, and Vietor predicted little effect on the outcome. They then covered Roger Marshall's self-produced ad in Kansas responding to debt-collection attacks from Adam Hamilton, the Dan Sullivan ballot controversy in Alaska, Paxton's weak close in Texas against James Talarico, Trump's remarks about Ashley Hinson's weight loss in Iowa, Sherrod Brown's race in Ohio, and Troy Jackson's lead over Susan Collins in Maine.

In closing, all three agreed that anything short of winning both chambers would feel like a loss. Favreau framed the Senate as decisive for Supreme Court appointments and said results would test assumptions about pocketbook voting and campaign money; Vietor blamed any disappointment on polarization and spending by figures such as Elon Musk; Lovett said a bad night would point to a polling error and require Democratic soul-searching, while El-Sayed's performance relative to Jocelyn Benson would inform left versus center-left debates ahead of 2028.

Chapters

1:32
Election Day open
The hosts introduce the final pre-election episode and announce live coverage plans and CrookedCon.
3:03
Trump's Reflecting Pool closing pitch
The hosts react to Trump's Lincoln Memorial event focused on algae, sod, and renovations the day before the midterms.
7:26
Trump's political unforced errors
Discussion of a Semafor list of Trump decisions that put Senate seats in play, from Paxton to Vance and Kemp.
9:19
Possible renewed strikes on Iran
Vietor assesses reporting from Tucker Carlson and others about a potential new attack on Iran after the election.
16:02
Michigan and the Haley Stevens endorsement
The hosts review El-Sayed's poll lead and debate Haley Stevens's endorsement of Mike Rogers and her CNN interview.
40:40
Kansas: Roger Marshall's ad
The hosts dissect Marshall's self-made ad on debt collection and Hamilton's polling strength in Kansas.
48:21
Alaska: Peltola and the Dan Sullivan ballot issue
Discussion of a tightening race and the ballot-stacking controversy involving two Dan Sullivans.
54:58
Texas: Talarico vs. Paxton
The hosts discuss Paxton's weak close and whether Texas could elect a Democrat.
58:11
Iowa: Turek vs. Hinson
Reaction to Trump's comments on Hinson's weight and analysis of a tied race and Rob Sands's coattails.
1:04:21
Ohio: Sherrod Brown vs. Husted
The hosts weigh Brown's lead against Ohio's partisan lean and Vivek Ramaswamy's drag on the ticket.
1:08:38
Maine: Jackson vs. Collins
Analysis of Troy Jackson's growing lead and Susan Collins's declining approval.
1:11:56
Final thoughts and expectations
The hosts discuss what better- or worse-than-expected results would reveal about polarization, money, and 2028.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Jon Lovett
Lovett argues that Trump's backing of Ken Paxton over John Cornyn was his cleanest unforced political error.
“I think Paxton over Cornyn is probably the cleanest because it just absolutely put”
Listen from 7:56 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Tommy Vietor
Vietor judges that Iran's deal terms make an agreement unlikely and renewed conflict more likely than not.
“that make it hard for me to imagine that Trump would take a deal. So I think renewed conflict is more likely than not”
Listen from 10:44 · United States war with Iran
Tommy Vietor
Vietor dismisses Tucker Carlson's report of a possible U.S. nuclear strike on Iran as implausible.
“I personally think the nuclear weapons part is made up. It doesn't make sense really militarily or strategically”
Listen from 11:08 · United States war with Iran
Tommy Vietor
Vietor predicts Haley Stevens's endorsement of Mike Rogers will not significantly affect the Michigan outcome because few voters remain undecided.
“I kind of think her antics won't have a big impact on the outcome. There was a very few undecided voters left in Michigan”
Listen from 22:50 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues the Stevens episode will unify Democrats behind El-Sayed and help his fundraising.
“So in the end, I think it becomes a unifying moment. Plus, he raises a bunch of money off of it”
Listen from 25:25 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues that demands that El-Sayed denounce an ad were really aimed at changing his position on Israel.
“And it's like, what you want is for him not to have the position he has on Israel. That's what you want”
Listen from 28:50 · Antisemitism
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues that El-Sayed was right to denounce the ad but that Stevens should not define what counts as antisemitism.
“Haley Stevens does not get to be the arbiter of what counts as anti-Semitism”
Listen from 32:18 · Antisemitism
Jon Favreau
Favreau cites the Times/Siena poll as showing almost no Harris voters defecting to Mike Rogers.
“Abdul is winning 96 percent of Kamala Harris voters and only two percent of Kamala Harris voters are voting for Mike Rogers”
Listen from 33:39 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues that Roger Marshall's ad is misleading because patients pursued by his debt collectors were still arrested after missing court summonses.
“It is still true that people, because of the debt collection, ended up arrested”
Listen from 42:36 · 2026 United States Senate election in Kansas
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues Democrats should compete in red states rather than talk about abolishing the Senate.
“And the idea that it's better to talk about abolishing the Senate than actually competing and winning these places, I think is pretty foolish”
Listen from 46:54 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Tommy Vietor
Vietor expects Trump to use the Dan Sullivan ballot story as a pretext to challenge results if Republicans lose.
“will Trump try to use this story as a pretext to overturn the results if Republicans lose? I think one, we don't know. Two, absolutely”
Listen from 49:28 · 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
Tommy Vietor
Vietor attributes Democratic optimism in Texas to the state's demographics and Paxton's weakness as a candidate.
“It's mostly because of the demographics, like 40% Latino. It's because Paxton is such a historically terrible candidate”
Listen from 56:28 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Tommy Vietor
Vietor says the pessimistic case for Josh Turek rests on heavy Republican spending and Ashley Hinson's strength as an opponent.
“The pessimistic case for Josh Turek in that Senate race is the Republicans spent, I think, $100 million against him”
Listen from 1:01:34 · 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues that the Iowa Senate race will be decided more by the national environment than by the candidates.
“This is a environment election more than it is candidate on the Senate side”
Listen from 1:02:03 · 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
Tommy Vietor
Vietor hopes Vivek Ramaswamy's unpopular campaign will drag down Republicans and help both Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown.
“I am hoping that Vivek Ramaswamy being the worst person in the world and running one of the most shameful ads in history against Amy Acton will collapse the electorate”
Listen from 1:06:05 · 2026 United States Senate election in Ohio
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues that, adjusted for the national environment, Maine leans strongly Democratic, undermining Collins's reputation for invincibility.
“and you're doing the generic ballot shifts nine or ten points, then Maine is like a plus 17 Democratic state”
Listen from 1:09:38 · 2026 United States Senate election in Maine
Jon Lovett
Lovett says that in this political environment, failing to win both chambers would be a loss for Democrats.
“vile, lawless administration, if we can't win both chambers, then yes, that will be a loss”
Listen from 1:13:08 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Favreau Prediction · due Feb 2027
Favreau predicts Democrats will probably win the House, citing Nate Silver's model at about 95 percent.
“We're probably going to win the House. Nate's up to like 95%, right?”
Listen from 1:13:32 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Favreau
Favreau frames Senate control as decisive for blocking Trump's future Supreme Court and judicial appointments.
“We can hold off two Supreme Court, one or two Supreme Court appointments and like dozens of other judges”
Listen from 1:13:57 · Supreme Court of the United States
Jon Lovett
Lovett says El-Sayed running close to Jocelyn Benson would be an important data point for left versus center-left dynamics heading into 2028.
“I think that would tell you a lot about about the left center left dynamics going into the presidential”
Listen from 1:18:15 · 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Jon Favreau
Favreau says a strong Democratic night would change his view on how much campaign spending matters, given record Republican spending.
“how important money is in politics, because they have spent more money than God”
Listen from 1:19:04 · Campaign finance in the United States
Tommy Vietor
Vietor says that if spending by Elon Musk and the crypto industry carries Paxton to victory, it would show that elections can be bought after Citizens United.
“it's a reminder that elections can be bought and we're in like a very terrible post-Citizens United new paradigm here”
Listen from 1:19:50 · Campaign finance in the United States
Linked moment · 1:21:13Skip to 1:21:13 using a listen link in the info box.
Jon Favreau
Favreau, citing Cook's Amy Walter, notes the historical rarity of the president's party losing multiple Senate seats the president carried by double digits.
“No election in at least the last 16 years has seen the party in the White House lose more than one Senate seat that the president had carried by double digits”
Listen from 1:21:13 · 2026 United States midterm elections

People

In the conversation

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama
Tommy VietorCo-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World who conducted the Josh Turek interview
Jon LovettCo-host of Pod Save America; diarization split of the same speaker during the economics segment

Discussed

Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
Mike RogersRepublican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee
Debbie DingellMichigan Democratic congresswoman
Cenk UygurProgressive media host whose group ran a controversial ad in Michigan
Adam HamiltonMethodist pastor in Kansas described as running for office
Mary PeltolaDemocratic Senate candidate in Alaska
Dan SullivanFounder of Strategic Coach
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
Josh TurekIowa state legislator, Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Iowa
Ashley HinsonRepublican congresswoman from Iowa, cited as tied with Turek in a poll
Sherrod BrownDemocratic Senate candidate in Ohio and former senator
Jon HustedRepublican senator from Ohio mentioned by Trump at a rally
Vivek RamaswamyRepublican nominee for governor of Ohio
Troy JacksonFormer Maine Senate president floated as a Platner replacement
Susan CollinsRepublican senator who noted Congress holds the power of the purse
Tucker CarlsonConservative broadcaster cited as part of right-wing media
JD VanceVice President of the United States
John FettermanU.S. Senator from Pennsylvania reportedly courted by Republicans to switch parties
Jocelyn BensonMichigan secretary of state and Democratic gubernatorial candidate

Topics

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Daily producer Lindsay Garrison reports on Rio Grande Valley builders, many Trump voters, turning against Republicans after ICE raids gutted their immigrant workforce.
900: Talk Me Into It
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Ira Glass and reporters examine persuasion before the 2026 midterms: a Detroit canvasser, Montana's Democratic Senate nominee pressured to quit, a sales trick, and an Allentown Republican organizer.
What the Final Polls Tell Us
Pod Save America · Nov 1, 2026 · 1 h 1 min
Tommy Vietor and CNN data analyst Harry Enten review final 2026 midterm polling, House outlook, key Senate races, polling error risks, and election-night timing.
#2574 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin
The Joe Rogan Experience · Oct 31, 2026 · 2 h 44 min
Joe Rogan talks with TRIGGERnometry hosts Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster about online misinformation, climate policy, religion, the Iran war, immigration, AI and universal income.
We take John Turturro to the Cheesecake Factory
Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me! · Oct 31, 2026 · 47 min
Guest host Negin Farsad quizzes panelists Faith Salie, Hari Kondabolu and Paula Poundstone on the week's news, and John Turturro plays a Hot Pockets quiz.
Elon Musk’s Endgame
The Ezra Klein Show · Oct 30, 2026 · 1 h 11 min
Ezra Klein and historian Quinn Slobodian examine Elon Musk's record campaign spending, AI vision, ideology, and the political dependencies his companies create.

From the publisher

Election Day is here at last. Jon, Lovett, and Tommy go through the final batch of polls and make the case for optimism (and pessimism) in each of the battlegrounds, from the Haley Stevens drama in Michigan, to Roger Marshall's desperate ad in Kansas. Then they zoom out and discuss the expectations game, baseline assumptions that might need updating, and what a better- or worse-than-expected night would tell us about 2028. Crooked Con is this Saturday! Today and tomorrow ONLY, get $30 off your ticket purchase with code CCMIDTERMS26. Hate listening to ads? Become a Friends of the Pod subscriber for ad-free episodes of Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Lovett or Leave It, Runaway Country, Offline with Jon Favreau, and more—plus exclusive content, including bonus episodes of Pod Save America. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends , on Apple Podcasts, or through the Pod Save America YouTube channel. You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 4, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary