What Happened on Tuesday? (Live from Crooked Con)

Episode of Pod Save America · November 8, 2026 · 1 h 40 min

Dan Pfeiffer's Crooked Con panel dissects Democrats' 2026 midterm wave, then Jon Favreau interviews Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro on governing, AI, Iran, and 2028.

Summary

Recorded live at Crooked Con in Washington days after the 2026 midterm elections, the episode opened with a panel moderated by Dan Pfeiffer featuring Sarah Longwell, Carlos Odio, Rebecca Katz and Addisu Demissie. Panelists described surprises including Gina Hinojosa's win in Texas, a House majority Demissie estimated at 260 to 265 seats, and Annie Andrews' victory in South Carolina. Demissie estimated the result as roughly two-thirds turnout and one-third persuasion, while Odio cited record diversity in the electorate, strong turnout among young Latinas, and defection by around 15% of Latino Trump voters. Longwell, drawing on post-election focus groups, characterized the result as a repudiation of Trump over tariffs, the Iran war and data centers.

The panel credited message discipline on costs and corruption, a shared populist message across factions, and candidates skilled in new media. Katz argued national party institutions failed to invest in Texas and criticized establishment interference in primaries such as Abdul El-Sayed's in Michigan. Panelists discussed advertising effectiveness, warned against overlearning 2026's lessons for 2028, and debated whether a contentious presidential primary is harmful. Odio closed by explaining that polls underestimated Democrats largely because of weighting on recalled 2024 vote.

In the second half, Jon Favreau interviewed Governor Josh Shapiro after his reelection. Shapiro urged Democrats to adopt a "370, not 270" mindset, called for stopping Medicaid cuts, described his executive order giving local communities veto power over data centers, and proposed an FDA-like federal agency to test AI models. He backed the national popular vote, called for overhauling the Department of Homeland Security including ICE, urged Democrats to use the power of the purse against the Iran war, said Israel should be treated like other nations on arms sales, and deflected questions about a 2028 presidential run.

Chapters

0:20
Introduction
Jon Favreau introduces the Crooked Con panel and the Josh Shapiro interview.
1:08
Biggest surprises of election night
Panelists name the results that surprised them, from rural defections to Gina Hinojosa's win and the size of the House majority.
5:00
Turnout versus persuasion
Demissie and Odio break down the mix of base turnout, low Republican turnout and Trump-voter defection, and Katz credits strong tickets in Texas.
11:22
Focus groups and the repudiation of Trump
Longwell describes post-election focus groups and argues the election was a referendum on Trump's failures and bad Republican candidates.
21:24
What Democrats did differently
The panel discusses message discipline, institutional failure to invest in Texas, and a shared populist message against billionaire influence.
31:51
Money, advertising and communication
Panelists explain how campaigns overcame spending disparities through constant content, varied ads and focusing on affordability.
48:39
Locking in gains and the 2028 primary
The panel debates how to hold new voters, the value of new-media messengers, and how nasty the 2028 primary might become.
1:01:48
Why the polls missed
Odio explains that polls underestimated Democrats largely due to weighting choices and urges treating polls as ranges.
1:07:22
Shapiro on the midterm results
Shapiro discusses Democratic wins in red states, his bipartisan record, and the need for fundamental change.
1:13:43
Cost of living and health care
Shapiro calls for stopping Medicaid cuts, removing middlemen like PBMs and adding a public option.
1:15:37
2028 ambitions
Favreau presses Shapiro on a memo touting his crossover appeal; Shapiro deflects and says he will serve his full term.
1:23:05
AI and data centers
Shapiro describes his data center executive order and calls for a federal agency to test AI models.
1:29:27
Popular vote, ICE, Iran and Israel
Shapiro backs the national popular vote, an overhaul of DHS, defunding the Iran war, and treating Israel like other arms buyers, then jokes about the ballroom.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Addisu Demissie
Demissie estimated that Democrats' win was roughly two-thirds turnout and one-third persuasion.
“My guess it is about two thirds turnout, one third persuasion, roughly speaking, right?”
Listen from 5:56 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Carlos Odio
Odio said early estimates suggest the 2026 electorate was the least white ever.
“I think if the early estimates hold up, this will be the least white electorate ever”
Listen from 7:12 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Carlos Odio
Odio reported that young Latinas turned out at a higher rate than young white women, an unusual pattern.
“young Latinas, Latinas under the age of 30, turned out at a higher rate than young white women”
Listen from 7:45 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Sarah Longwell
Longwell argued the election delivered the thorough repudiation of Trump that Never Trumpers had sought for a decade.
“that we finally got, was a thorough repudiation of everything that Trump is”
Listen from 14:01 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Carlos Odio
Odio said most of the Latino shift back to Democrats came from defection by Trump voters.
“At least around 15% of Latinos who had voted for Donald Trump switched sides”
Listen from 18:03 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Rebecca Katz
Katz said national Democratic institutions failed to believe in or invest in Gina Hinojosa's Texas campaign.
“But in Texas, we couldn't get anyone to believe in Gina”
Listen from 23:56 · 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
Dan Pfeiffer Prediction · due Dec 2030
Pfeiffer predicted Texas would gain three or four electoral votes and California would lose a similar number after the 2030 census.
“After the 2030 census, Texas is going to have three, maybe four more electoral votes”
Listen from 25:09
Addisu Demissie
Demissie argued that high gas prices functioned as Democrats' most effective advertising.
“I think we had the best advertising campaign in the history of America, and it was the gas prices”
Listen from 36:09 · Political advertising
Sarah Longwell
Longwell argued Democrats should give red-state candidates flexibility on issues like transgender policy so they can win.
“let them talk about affordability and do whatever they need to do to get elected because winners make policy and losers go home”
Listen from 42:12 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Rebecca Katz
Katz argued that helping Texas Democrats succeed is the top priority because flipping Texas would decide 2028.
“if we can take Texas off the table in 2028, it's ballgame”
Listen from 49:21 · 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Sarah Longwell
Longwell argued Democrats should not impeach Trump because it would trigger a rally-around-Trump effect.
“impeaching Trump because I think you end up then with repolarizing your audience or your voters with a rally around Trump effect”
Listen from 54:09 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Addisu Demissie
Demissie predicted the 2028 Democratic primary would resemble the more contentious 2008 or 2016 contests rather than 2020.
“I think this one is honestly more likely to be like 2008 or 2016”
Listen from 59:24 · 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Carlos Odio
Odio said the generic ballot polling average underestimated Democrats by about five points.
“The average of generic ballot was D plus nine. The result was D plus 14”
Listen from 1:03:18 · Opinion polling
Carlos Odio
Odio urged consumers to treat polls as ranges of possibilities rather than emotional guides.
“And so the real message to consumers is don't use polls as therapy”
Listen from 1:05:08 · Opinion polling
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro argued Democrats have aimed too narrowly at 270 electoral votes and should compete everywhere.
“I think for a long time, politically, our party has had a 270 attitude”
Listen from 1:08:26 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro said Pennsylvania Republicans in Congress promised to oppose the budget bill and then voted for it, prompting him to recruit challengers.
“And then these cowards went to D.C. the next week and they voted for it”
Listen from 1:11:20 · Medicaid
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro said the new Congress should use its leverage to stop Medicaid cuts affecting hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians.
“Five hundred and ten thousand Pennsylvanians are in the process of losing access to health care”
Listen from 1:14:02 · Medicaid
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro described his executive order giving local communities final say to block data centers.
“it says if a local community. through their board of supervisor, whatever, votes down a data center, it's dead on arrival”
Listen from 1:23:59 · Artificial intelligence
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro proposed a federal agency, analogous to the FDA or FAA, to test AI models before release.
“We need a similar federal initiative, a similar federal agency to test these models before they go out”
Listen from 1:26:13 · Artificial intelligence
Linked moment · 1:28:54Skip to 1:28:54 using a listen link in the info box.
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro argued AI company CEOs should not be left to regulate themselves and that oversight must come within months.
“We cannot rely on the CEOs of these companies to do what is in the best interest of America”
Listen from 1:28:54 · Artificial intelligence
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro reaffirmed his support for a national popular vote.
“I think the national popular vote makes sense. My views on that have not changed”
Listen from 1:29:54 · National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro argued that reforming ICE alone is too limited and the whole Department of Homeland Security needs an overhaul.
“But I would say just focusing on overhauling, whatever the word is, ICE is too limited”
Listen from 1:31:21 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro said Democrats should refuse to vote for funding that continues the Iran war.
“I think this is a moment where our party needs to stand firm and use the power of the purse strings”
Listen from 1:33:48 · United States war with Iran
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro said he supports ending subsidized military aid to Israel and applying the same arms-sale rules as for other nations.
“And I think Israel should be treated as other nations are”
Listen from 1:38:21 · United States military aid to Israel

People

In the conversation

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama
Dan PfeifferCo-host of Pod Save America, author of the Message Box newsletter, and former White House communications director
Josh ShapiroGovernor of Pennsylvania whose residence was set on fire in an arson attack
Sarah LongwellBulwark publisher who runs focus groups
Carlos OdioCo-founder of Equis Research, a Latino polling firm
Rebecca KatzDemocratic strategist and founder of the ad firm Fight
Addisu DemissieDemocratic campaign strategist

Discussed

Gina HinojosaDemocratic nominee for governor of Texas
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
JD VanceVice President of the United States
Pete HegsethU.S. Secretary of Defense overseeing the Iran campaign
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
John CornynIncumbent Republican U.S. senator from Texas
Annie AndrewsCharleston pediatrician and Democratic Senate candidate in South Carolina
Randy VillegasDemocratic House candidate in California's 22nd district
Elon MuskEntrepreneur behind X, xAI and SpaceX, discussed in AI competition
Barack ObamaFormer president referenced in comparing 2010 midterm conditions
Nate SilverElections analyst whose polling model and averages are cited
Paige CognettiMayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania, and Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district

Topics

Stephen Miller’s Promotion, Big Tech’s Reality Check, and Guest Harvey Levin
Pivot · Nov 8, 2026 · 1 h 10 min
Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, live in Los Angeles, interview TMZ founder Harvey Levin and discuss Stephen Miller's promotion, post-midterm tech stocks, data centers, and Elon Musk.
Midterm Blood Bath, $4T AI Sell Off, Data Center Freeze, What's Next for Trump
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Nov 7, 2026 · 1 h 33 min
The All-In hosts dissect the Republicans' 2026 midterm collapse, Trump's path forward, a $4 trillion AI stock sell-off over data center fears, and OpenAI's exponential time hypothesis result.
How the Democrats Did It
The Ezra Klein Show · Nov 7, 2026 · 1 h 7 min
Ezra Klein and Michelle Goldberg dissect how Democrats won the 2026 midterms across Texas, Georgia, Michigan, Kansas and the South, and what the new party looks like.
We learn The Lowdown Hoedown with Sterlin Harjo
Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me! · Nov 7, 2026 · 47 min
Peter Sagal and panelists joke about Democrats' midterm sweep and other news, and Sterlin Harjo discusses his Oklahoma upbringing and plays a square-dancing quiz.
#2578 - Calley Means
The Joe Rogan Experience · Nov 6, 2026 · 2 h 25 min
Calley Means tells Joe Rogan why he resigned from the Trump administration, alleging lobbyist-driven obstruction of MAHA health policies on glyphosate, vaping, kratom and food.
Afternoon Breaking Updates with Ben 11/5/2026
The MeidasTouch Podcast · Nov 5, 2026 · 1 h 17 min
Ben Meiselas reacts to the Democrats' 2026 midterm sweep, urging aggressive oversight and impeachment while attacking Trump's Iran war policy and officials.

From the publisher

Live from Crooked Con, Dan sits down with leading Democratic strategists to break down the party’s historic midterm victory. The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell, pollster Carlos Odio, and campaign strategists Rebecca Katz and Addisu Demissie discuss the tactics that finally flipped Texas blue, the new ways campaigns are thinking about advertising, and how the 2026 results will shape the 2028 Democratic presidential race. Then, Jon sits down with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to discuss his campaign, how the new Democratic majority can keep its voters’ trust, how the party should approach AI regulation, and the governor’s 2028 ambitions. Hate listening to ads? Become a Friends of the Pod subscriber for ad-free episodes of Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Lovett or Leave It, Runaway Country, Offline with Jon Favreau, and more—plus exclusive content, including bonus episodes of Pod Save America. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends , on Apple Podcasts, or through the Pod Save America YouTube channel. You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com . Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 9, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary