What the Final Polls Tell Us

Episode of Pod Save America · November 1, 2026 · 1 h 1 min

Tommy Vietor and CNN data analyst Harry Enten review final 2026 midterm polling, House outlook, key Senate races, polling error risks, and election-night timing.

Summary

Two days before the 2026 midterm elections, Tommy Vietor interviewed CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten about what final polling suggested. Enten noted that the White House party has rarely avoided midterm House losses and that only Harry Truman in 1946 and George W. Bush in 2006 had net approval ratings as low as Donald Trump's; both saw their parties lose Congress. He argued that a Democratic House majority of about 225 seats looked more like a floor than a ceiling and that a blowout above 230 was increasingly likely.

Vietor raised concerns about polling error and non-response bias, citing a New York Times Minnesota outlier and difficulties reaching Republicans in Kansas. Enten acknowledged that polls in the Trump era have underestimated Republicans by about four points in close Senate races in Trump-won states, but noted that Democrats outperformed their polls in 2022. He also suggested watching early bellwethers such as Kentucky's 6th district and Florida Latino areas.

The two then went through the Senate map. Enten said he trusted the Texas polling showing James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton, saw a large gap between media narrative and polling in Michigan favoring Abdul El-Sayed, viewed Alaska as historically difficult for Democrats despite Mary Peltola's strength, ranked Ohio as the state where he was most skeptical of polls though Sherrod Brown was still favored, and argued Susan Collins's negative favorability made Maine different from past cycles. He called Iowa less likely to be the decisive 51st seat, named Kansas the likeliest stretch flip, and described South Carolina as inelastic.

They closed with discussion of elevated Black early-vote turnout after the Louisiana v. Callais decision, a likely drop in mail voting, Enten's expectation that results would be largely clear by 2 or 3 a.m., and the health of the polling industry, which Enten argued has not become less accurate even as elections have grown closer.

Chapters

1:36
Introduction and Trump's favorite pollster
Vietor introduces Harry Enten, promotes the election-night livestream, and jokes about Trump's praise for Enten.
4:29
Historical midterm patterns
Enten explains how unpopular presidents' parties have fared in midterms and why a Democratic House blowout is plausible.
7:00
Polling error and response bias
Vietor reads a New York Times note on a Minnesota outlier and Enten weighs Trump-era Republican underestimation against Democrats' 2022 overperformance.
10:22
House outlook and bellwethers
Enten argues 225 Democratic seats is a floor and names early districts to watch on election night.
18:29
Texas Senate race
Enten details Talarico's strength with independents, Latinos, and non-MAGA Republicans and says he trusts the Texas polls.
22:53
Michigan and fake polling
Enten says the narrative against Abdul El-Sayed does not match polling, and discusses fake pollsters like Wedgwood.
26:12
Alaska Senate race
The pair discuss the Dan Sullivan recruitment story and Alaska's historic difficulty for Democrats.
33:09
Ohio and Maine
Enten flags Ohio as the state where he is most skeptical of polling and argues Collins's poor favorability changes the Maine picture.
40:12
Iowa and split-ticket governor races
Enten says Iowa is unlikely to be Democrats' 51st seat and discusses ticket-splitting in governor races.
45:44
Stretch Senate states
Enten ranks Kansas as the likeliest stretch flip and calls South Carolina inelastic.
49:21
Black turnout and early vote
Enten discusses rising Black early turnout after the Callais decision and the limits of early-vote data, including a likely drop in mail voting.
55:08
Election night timing and future of polling
Enten predicts results by early morning and argues polls remain accurate while elections have grown closer.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Harry Enten
Enten argued that historical comparisons to unpopular presidents suggest Democrats could retake the House rather easily.
“it's quite the possibility that Democrats don't just take back the House, but take it back rather easily”
Listen from 5:04 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Harry Enten
Enten said polls in the Trump era have underestimated Republicans by about four points in close Senate races.
“there has been an underestimation of Republican strength. It's been four points on average in close Senate races”
Listen from 8:42 · Opinion polling accuracy and non-response bias
Harry Enten Prediction · being checked
Enten said a Democratic House total of about 225 seats looked more like a floor than a ceiling.
“The 225 sort of almost feels much more like a floor than it does like a ceiling”
Listen from 11:44 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Harry Enten
Enten said Texas ranks low on his list of states where he is skeptical of the polling.
“But in terms of the list of states where I am the most skeptical of the polling, Texas is actually in the middle of the group or down near the bottom”
Listen from 19:21 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Harry Enten
Enten said Ken Paxton is historically unpopular as a Texas Republican Senate nominee.
“Ken Paxton is the least popular GOP nominee for the Senate in Texas this entire century”
Listen from 19:21 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Tommy Vietor
Vietor said he was bullish on Texas because private campaign information matched public polls.
“I feel bullish on Texas and trust the polling in Texas in part because what I'm hearing privately from campaigns tracks with what I'm seeing publicly”
Listen from 22:08 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Linked moment · 22:53Skip to 22:53 using a listen link in the info box.
Harry Enten
Enten argued that the media narrative about the Michigan race diverges from polling more than in any other state.
“I'm not sure there's a state in which the two of them are further apart than the Wolverine state”
Listen from 25:13 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Harry Enten
Enten predicted more fabricated pollsters like the fake Wedgwood operation, especially with AI.
“I'd be very surprised if we don't see more attempts at the Wedgwoods”
Listen from 26:01 · Opinion polling accuracy and non-response bias
Tommy Vietor
Vietor criticized the Democratic effort to recruit a second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska's ballot.
“But the effort to recruit this guy seems so goddamn ham-handed”
Listen from 29:21 · 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
Harry Enten
Enten estimated the Sullivan recruitment story might cost Peltola a point or two.
“my baseline is maybe you take a point or two off of Patola”
Listen from 30:18 · 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
Harry Enten Prediction · being checked
Enten predicted Sherrod Brown is more likely than not to win in Ohio.
“I still think Sherrod Brown's more likely to win than not”
Listen from 35:01 · 2026 United States Senate election in Ohio
Harry Enten
Enten ranked Ohio near the top of states where he is skeptical of the polling.
“I would put Ohio closer to the top of the list of where I'm the most skeptical of the polling data”
Listen from 36:05 · 2026 United States Senate election in Ohio
Harry Enten
Enten noted that unlike past cycles, Susan Collins has a negative net favorability rating.
“Her net favorable rating, net favorability rating, I think in our CNN poll was like minus 10, minus 11, minus 12”
Listen from 39:04 · 2026 United States Senate election in Maine
Harry Enten
Enten said Iowa would not be the Senate seat that delivers Democrats their majority.
“It's not the 51st seat if I'm a Democrat. That's what it's telling me”
Listen from 41:51 · 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
Harry Enten
Enten ranked Kansas as the most likely of the stretch states to flip to Democrats.
“I think Kansas is the one that's most likely to flip”
Listen from 46:05 · 2026 United States Senate election in Kansas
Harry Enten
Enten described South Carolina as racially polarized and inelastic, doubting a Democrat can reach 50 percent.
“I see a Democrat getting to 45, 46, 47 percent of the vote. The question is, can you really get to 50 percent?”
Listen from 48:56 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Harry Enten Prediction · being checked
Enten predicted the share of mail voting would decline in 2026 as Democrats chose to vote in person.
“I do think the percentage of people voting by mail will be down this year”
Listen from 54:22 · Postal voting in the United States
Harry Enten Prediction · due Nov 2026
Enten predicted the overall outcome would likely be clear by 2 or 3 a.m. on election night.
“I think 2, 3 a.m., we will very likely know what is going on”
Listen from 55:37 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Harry Enten
Enten said he considers all available data, including prediction markets, believing more data is better.
“I'm of the belief that the more data that you have in there, the better”
Listen from 57:54 · Prediction markets
Harry Enten
Enten argued horse-race polling has not become less accurate; elections have simply become closer.
“if you look at the horse race polling, it actually hasn't become less accurate over time, really”
Listen from 58:20 · Opinion polling accuracy and non-response bias

People

In the conversation

Tommy VietorCo-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World who conducted the Josh Turek interview
Harry EntenCNN data reporter cited for polling on the Iran war

Discussed

Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
Mike RogersRepublican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee
Haley StevensU.S. Representative running for Senate in Michigan
Mary PeltolaDemocratic Senate candidate in Alaska
Sherrod BrownDemocratic Senate candidate in Ohio and former senator
Jon HustedRepublican senator from Ohio mentioned by Trump at a rally
Susan CollinsRepublican senator who noted Congress holds the power of the purse
Troy JacksonFormer Maine Senate president floated as a Platner replacement
Graham PlatnerPresumptive Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine
Josh TurekIowa state legislator, Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Iowa
Ashley HinsonRepublican congresswoman from Iowa, cited as tied with Turek in a poll
Roger MarshallRepublican U.S. senator from Kansas
John BermanCNN anchor and Enten's on-air partner
Keisha Lance BottomsDemocratic candidate for governor of Georgia
Jon OssoffU.S. senator from Georgia cited as connecting corruption and economics

Topics

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On Election Day 2026, Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, and Tommy Vietor review final Times/Siena polls in Senate battlegrounds and discuss what results would mean for Democrats and 2028.
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The Daily · Nov 2, 2026 · 1 h 17 min
Daily producer Lindsay Garrison reports on Rio Grande Valley builders, many Trump voters, turning against Republicans after ICE raids gutted their immigrant workforce.
900: Talk Me Into It
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Ira Glass and reporters examine persuasion before the 2026 midterms: a Detroit canvasser, Montana's Democratic Senate nominee pressured to quit, a sales trick, and an Allentown Republican organizer.
#2574 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin
The Joe Rogan Experience · Oct 31, 2026 · 2 h 44 min
Joe Rogan talks with TRIGGERnometry hosts Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster about online misinformation, climate policy, religion, the Iran war, immigration, AI and universal income.
We take John Turturro to the Cheesecake Factory
Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me! · Oct 31, 2026 · 47 min
Guest host Negin Farsad quizzes panelists Faith Salie, Hari Kondabolu and Paula Poundstone on the week's news, and John Turturro plays a Hot Pockets quiz.
Elon Musk’s Endgame
The Ezra Klein Show · Oct 30, 2026 · 1 h 11 min
Ezra Klein and historian Quinn Slobodian examine Elon Musk's record campaign spending, AI vision, ideology, and the political dependencies his companies create.

From the publisher

CNN's Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten joins Tommy for one last deep dive ahead of Election Day. They break down the rising chance of a Democratic blowout in the House, how much to trust the polls, and what to watch for as results come in on Tuesday night. They also crunch the numbers on the most nail-biting Senate races and take a look at the most surprising states that are now in play. Then, Harry tells Tommy what it's like being Trump's favorite pollster. Hate listening to ads? Become a Friends of the Pod subscriber for ad-free episodes of Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Lovett or Leave It, Runaway Country, Offline with Jon Favreau, and more—plus exclusive content, including bonus episodes of Pod Save America. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends , on Apple Podcasts, or through the Pod Save America YouTube channel. You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com . Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 2, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary