NBA Hot Takes, OKC’s Red Flag, and Giannis vs. Father Time With Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House
Episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast · March 26, 2026 · 1 h 36 min
Bill Simmons, Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House debate OKC's vulnerabilities, All-NBA cases, Houston's bad vibes and whether any team should trade for Giannis.
Summary
Bill Simmons opened with Kirk Goldsberry to examine the Oklahoma City Thunder after their loss in Boston. Goldsberry argued that Jalen Williams' diminished form is the team's biggest red flag, while Simmons contended that the Thunder's eleven-man rotation creates a "too many guys" problem that will not hold up in a playoff series. Both praised the Celtics' showing, with Simmons arguing Jaylen Brown had matched the league's best players all season and Goldsberry calling Boston the clear Eastern Conference favorite following Jayson Tatum's return.
Simmons then ran a series of quick takes past Goldsberry: that Cade Cunningham's injury ultimately helped Detroit by developing Daniss Jenkins, that Atlanta's surge is real but limited by relying on CJ McCollum in crunch time, that Jamal Murray belongs on an All-NBA second team, and that the Houston Rockets' body language and offense have collapsed. Joe House joined to say Houston is "not a serious team" and a first-round exit candidate. The three also debated MVP, with Goldsberry making the case for Victor Wembanyama as the most impactful player while Simmons and House stayed with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whom Simmons placed in the historical company of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson.
The second half centered on a research project Simmons assigned Goldsberry: whether history warns teams off trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Simmons cited that only Moses Malone has averaged 20-10 in a 14th season or later, and only four players have averaged 24-10 at age 32 or older, none in 28 years. Goldsberry compared Giannis to Rob Gronkowski rather than Tom Brady, noted Giannis has been fouled more than 6,000 times in the player-tracking era, and said elite big men peak at 30 and decline quickly. Both expected a team such as Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Charlotte or Portland to talk itself into overpaying.
The episode closed with NCAA tournament talk, including praise for Arkansas guard Darius Acuff, House's bet on a three-point prop, and nostalgic recollections of early-1990s college basketball and the Fab Five.
Chapters
- 0:06
Opening and show business
Simmons previewed The Rewatchables, a Netflix live show, and an upcoming San Francisco live event before setting up the basketball discussion.
- 3:46
OKC's red flags after losing in Boston
Simmons and Goldsberry dissect the Thunder's rotation depth, Jalen Williams' decline and Boston's size advantage.
- 9:20
Boston's ceiling and lineup wrinkles
The two discuss Tatum's return, Jaylen Brown's dominance and the possibility of Tatum playing center in the playoffs.
- 19:19
Hot takes: Detroit, Atlanta, All-NBA ballots
Simmons floats rapid-fire takes on Cade Cunningham's injury helping Detroit, Atlanta's legitimacy, and second-team All-NBA candidates.
- 29:46
Houston's broken vibes
Simmons and Goldsberry describe the Rockets' disconnected body language and 22nd-ranked offense, and Joe House joins to call them a first-round exit candidate.
- 40:36
Amen Thompson and the MVP race
The group questions Amen Thompson's shooting regression and debates whether a Spurs one seed would change the MVP verdict from SGA to Wembanyama.
- 46:34
Jaylen Brown's historic season and SGA's place in history
Simmons lays out statistical company for Brown's 28-7-5 season and argues SGA is approaching the tier of Jordan, Kobe and Magic.
- 59:07
The Giannis longevity project
Simmons presents historical data on aging stars and Goldsberry presents research on wear and tear, arguing against trading assets for Giannis.
- 1:10:37
Where Giannis might land
The three speculate about Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Charlotte, Minnesota and Portland as potential desperate suitors.
- 1:20:18
Wizards all-time five and franchise hypotheticals
A mailbag question prompts a debate over whether Washington's best five would lose to every other franchise's best five.
- 1:23:57
March Madness and college basketball nostalgia
The group previews Sweet 16 matchups, praises Darius Acuff, and reminisces about Kenny Anderson, the Fab Five and early-90s college hoops.
Key points
What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry argued the Thunder's biggest playoff red flag is Jalen Williams not performing at his prior level as the clear number two option.
“I think one of the reasons they didn't win last night is because J-Dub wasn't simply at the level we expect him to be at”
- Bill Simmons
Simmons predicted the Celtics' ultimate playoff lineup in big games will be Tatum at center with Brown, a shooter, White and Pritchard.
“I do wonder if that's the ultimate destiny of them in huge, huge games”
- Kirk GoldsberryDidn’t happen
Goldsberry said the loss reestablished Boston as the best team in the Eastern Conference and that they can win the East.
“this game really reestablished the Boston Celtics as the best team, at least in the Eastern Conference”
- Bill SimmonsCame true
Simmons said if Jalen Williams does not return to last year's form, San Antonio could beat Oklahoma City in a playoff series.
“If they don't get J-Dub back the way he was last year, I think they're really vulnerable against San Antonio. I think San Antonio could absolutely beat them”
- Bill Simmons
Simmons offered the take that Cade Cunningham's injury was the best thing that could have happened to Detroit, assuming a full recovery.
“Cade's injury was the best thing that could have happened in Detroit”
- Bill Simmons
Simmons said Atlanta's reliance on CJ McCollum in crunch time is the reason he doubts them in a playoff series.
“this is the problem with the playoffs. If this is your guy and he has to match the best guy in the other team, you have CJ McCollum in that spot. And that's what makes me nervous about them”
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry noted Houston has ranked 22nd in offense since January 1 despite having Kevin Durant.
“they've ranked 22nd in the NBA in offense for half the season, Bill”
- Bill Simmons
Simmons called Houston the most disconnected playoff team and blamed one of the year's worst coaching jobs.
“I think this has been one of the worst coaching jobs of the year”
- Joe HouseCame true
House said this version of the Rockets is not a serious contender in the West and is a first-round exit candidate.
“This version of the Houston Rockets is not a serious team, not in this West”
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry said Amen Thompson has regressed and currently ranks last among 216 high-volume jump shooters in the NBA.
“he's arguably the worst shooter in the NBA right now. He has the worst jump shooting efficiency and the worst shot-making impact in the entire NBA”
- Joe House
House said he would still vote Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP even if San Antonio took the one seed.
“But the answer to me is no, still. It's still SGA to me”
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry argued Victor Wembanyama is the most impactful player in the NBA and therefore the MVP.
“This is the most impactful player in the NBA right now is Victor Wemby Yama”
- Bill Simmons
Simmons argued Jaylen Brown deserves first-team All-NBA because his 28-7-5 production in a tenth season is historically rare.
“I don't think he's getting enough credit for the season. And I'm not saying that as like Boston Homer guy”
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry said he would give the Eastern Conference MVP nod to Cade Cunningham over Jaylen Brown if Cunningham reaches 65 games.
“if Cade gets to 65, which is a big if, I'm giving it to Cade just because of what they've done, where they've come from”
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry said Gilgeous-Alexander's mid-range and three-level scoring make him the best guard of his generation, though he dislikes the foul baiting.
“his ability to score at all three levels as a guard is the best in class by far of his generation at the rim, in the mid-range, and beyond the arc”
- Bill Simmons
Simmons cited that only Moses Malone has averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds in a 14th season or later.
“Moses Malone. He had a 2012 in 1989 and a 2011 in 1988. And it's the only time it's ever happened with the year 14 or older guy”
Listen from 1:01:46 · Aging curves in professional basketball
- Bill Simmons
Simmons said only four players have averaged 24 points and 10 rebounds at age 32 or older, and none in 28 years, making a Giannis trade a bet against history.
“only four guys ever have done it. Kareem twice. Four. Hakeem twice, Carl Malone once, Elgin Baylor three times, have averaged 24 and 10 when they were 32 years old or later. It has not happened in 28 years”
Listen from 1:03:02 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry compared the aging bet on Giannis to Rob Gronkowski rather than Tom Brady and said history warns against paying a big man into his mid-30s.
“this isn't Tom Brady at 32. This is Gronk at 32. And it's not just the miles on the car”
Listen from 1:04:33 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry cited that Giannis has been fouled more than 6,500 times in the player-tracking era, more than any other player.
“he's been fouled 6,500 times. He's the only player that has been fouled more than 6,000 times”
Listen from 1:05:04 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry said his plotting of aging curves shows the best modern big men all peak at age 30 and decline quickly.
“They all peak at 30. They all peak at 30. It's apex mountain at age 30. And not only that, the second biggest feature of these curves is they go down fast”
Listen from 1:06:30 · Aging curves in professional basketball
- Kirk Goldsberry
Goldsberry reported hearing that Orlando has been active in pursuing Giannis, though they lack picks after the Desmond Bane trade.
“somebody who knows stuff told me that Orlando has actually been very active in seeking out Giannis Antetokounmpo services”
Listen from 1:11:50 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
Linked moment · 1:14:03Skip to 1:14:03 using a listen link in the info box.
Bill SimmonsSimmons said he would be the voice in a front-office war room arguing against trading assets for Giannis.
“if I was in that inner circle war room, I would probably be the voice saying, it makes me nervous”
Listen from 1:14:03 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Joe House
House suggested Giannis' calf history could be used as cover for load management in a faster modern NBA.
“I wonder if that is a new way to conduct some load management, especially with Giannis”
Listen from 1:16:44 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Kirk GoldsberryPrediction · due Mar 2027
Goldsberry predicted some team will overpay for Giannis relative to the risk involved.
“I think that somebody will probably overpay for the amount of risk they'll have to absorb to add Giannis Antetokounmpo to their roster”
Listen from 1:18:57 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Bill Simmons
Simmons noted that San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston all passed on Giannis despite having the assets.
“I thought it was notable that San Antonio and OKC were like, we're good”
Listen from 1:20:11 · Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Bill Simmons
Simmons rejected comparisons of Darius Acuff to Allen Iverson or Derrick Rose, likening him instead to Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul and Damian Lillard.
“No, it's a little Kyrie and a little Chris Paul. He's dame to me”
Listen from 1:25:14 · 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament
- Joe House
House said he bet on a player to make at least two three-pointers at minus 122 based on recent shooting form.
“I have him at minus 122 in the FanDuel Sportsbook for at least two three-pointers”
Listen from 1:25:44 · 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament
- Kirk GoldsberryCame true
Goldsberry said Purdue is probably the safer bet over Texas in their Sweet 16 matchup.
“As much as I'd love to pick the Longhorns, I think the Boilermakers are probably a safe bet tonight”
Listen from 1:27:17 · 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament
People
In the conversation
- Bill SimmonsSportswriter and founder of The Ringer, host of The Bill Simmons Podcast
- Kirk GoldsberryBasketball analytics writer and visual analyst, contributor to The Ringer
- Joe HouseRinger podcaster and longtime friend of Bill Simmons, known for sports betting talk
Discussed
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMilwaukee Bucks forward and two-time NBA MVP whose future trade value is the episode's central subject
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOklahoma City Thunder guard and reigning MVP
- Jalen WilliamsOklahoma City Thunder wing described as the team's number two offensive option
- Jaylen BrownBoston Celtics guard-forward at the center of the hosts' first-team All-NBA case
- Jayson TatumBoston Celtics forward returning from injury
- Victor WembanyamaSan Antonio Spurs center and MVP candidate
- Cade CunninghamDetroit Pistons guard sidelined by injury
- Kevin DurantHouston Rockets forward cited as both a scorer and an aging outlier
- Alperen ŞengünHouston Rockets center whose play went unacknowledged by teammates
- Amen ThompsonHouston Rockets guard whose shooting regression is discussed
- CJ McCollumAtlanta Hawks guard relied on in crunch time
- Jalen JohnsonAtlanta Hawks forward described as a likely All-NBA selection
- Jalen DurenDetroit Pistons center praised for consistency
- Moses MaloneHall of Fame center, the only player to average 20-10 in his 14th season or later
- Shaquille O'NealHall of Fame center used as an aging comparison for Giannis
- Dwight HowardFormer Orlando Magic center cited as a cautionary aging example
- Kevin GarnettHall of Fame forward whose Celtics trade is used as a precedent
- LeBron JamesLos Angeles Lakers forward cited as a longevity outlier
- Tom BradyRetired NFL quarterback cited as a longevity outlier
- Rob GronkowskiRetired NFL tight end used as Goldsberry's aging analogy for Giannis
- Darius AcuffArkansas freshman guard praised by the hosts as an NBA prospect
- Kenny AndersonFormer Georgia Tech and NBA point guard remembered fondly by Simmons and House
- Rick PitinoSt. John's head coach discussed by House
- Joe MazzullaBoston Celtics head coach credited for the team's consistency
- Zach LoweRinger NBA analyst referenced repeatedly
- Kawhi LeonardClippers forward whose games-played total affects All-NBA eligibility
- Jamal MurrayDenver Nuggets guard proposed for second-team All-NBA
- Donovan MitchellCleveland Cavaliers guard weighed against Jaylen Brown for All-NBA
- Sean MillerTexas head coach quoted praising Darius Acuff
Topics
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Boston Celtics
- Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation
- Aging curves in professional basketball
- All-NBA Team
- NBA Most Valuable Player Award
- Houston Rockets
- Atlanta Hawks
- Detroit Pistons
- San Antonio Spurs
- 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Washington Wizards
- Fab Five (Michigan)
- Sports betting
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From the publisher
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kirk Goldsberry to talk about how vulnerable the OKC Thunder are after their loss to the Celtics before Joe House joins for some quick NBA takes (3:38). Then, they discuss whether there are enough historical signs to indicate that teams shouldn't trade for Giannis at this point in his career (59:51). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Sam’s Club | Join The Club of Yes And Learn More at https://linkedin.com/simmonsbill The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 27, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.