What Hundreds of Focus Groups With Trump Voters Revealed
Episode of The Ezra Klein Show · October 23, 2026 · 1 h 8 min
Ezra Klein and Sarah Longwell draw on hundreds of focus groups to explain why Trump voters are souring on his second term and what Democrats might do.
Summary
Ezra Klein interviewed Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark and a prolific conductor of focus groups with Trump voters, about the collapse of Donald Trump's approval rating ahead of the 2026 midterms. Longwell argued that the decline was easy to explain: Trump's unilateral tariffs and the war with Iran were choices voters attribute solely to him, and both raised prices for people who had elected him to lower them and to avoid new wars. She described voters who experience politics through prices at the grocery store and who absorb political "vibes" through algorithmic feeds rather than deliberate news consumption.
The two discussed why corruption has become a top concern, with Longwell attributing it to economic pain and a partisan backlash dynamic, and praising Jon Ossoff's step-by-step storytelling on Trump's dealings. Longwell said the failure to release the Epstein files broke trust with a strain of Trump voters, described a schism between the MAGA establishment and "America First" dissidents, and said younger voters on the right increasingly blame Israel for the Iran war, which she characterized as closer to blatant antisemitism. Klein argued the country has entered an era of price politics and a coming period of health care politics as Medicaid cuts take effect; Longwell agreed that some form of universal health care is gaining support even among Trump voters.
On immigration, Longwell said most Trump voters distinguish dangerous criminals from long-settled workers and object to masked agents and inhumane enforcement, while Klein argued the administration created disorder rather than order. They also discussed data centers as a rising issue driven by energy costs, community disruption and job fears, and the sense of powerlessness voters express. Longwell named Ossoff, Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg as Democrats who appeal to Trump-leaning voters, predicted depressed Republican turnout could produce a wave, and recommended Intermezzo, Stoner and The Poisonwood Bible.
Chapters
- 0:54
Why Trump's approval collapsed
Longwell attributes the decline to tariffs and the Iran war, which raised prices and broke Trump's promises.
- 5:28
America First and the businessman myth
Longwell explains voters' desire to be prioritized and how The Apprentice shaped their belief Trump could fix prices.
- 10:16
Low-information voters and vibes
The two discuss disengaged voters who absorb politics through algorithmic feeds and culture rather than news.
- 14:35
Corruption breaks through
Longwell explains why corruption became a top issue and praises Jon Ossoff's storytelling approach.
- 23:08
Epstein and the MAGA schism
Longwell discusses the Epstein files, the split between the MAGA establishment and America Firsters, and Hegseth's standing.
- 28:05
The Iran war and Israel
They examine how voters' views of the Iran war evolved, including a rising frame blaming Israel.
- 32:57
Price politics and health care
Klein and Longwell discuss persistent price anxiety, Medicaid cuts and growing support for universal health care.
- 42:41
Immigration enforcement
Longwell describes Trump voters' distinctions on immigration and backlash to masked ICE agents and disorder.
- 54:27
Data centers and AI anxiety
They discuss data centers as a cross-cutting local issue and the absence of good political communication on AI.
- 1:03:49
Democrats who connect and the turnout picture
Longwell names Ossoff, Shapiro and Buttigieg and explains why loyal Trump voters stay and why turnout may produce a wave.
- 1:08:21
Book recommendations
Longwell recommends Intermezzo, Stoner and The Poisonwood Bible.
Key points
What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell argues Trump's unilateral tariffs and the Iran war are choices voters attribute entirely to him.
“The first one was when he did all of the unilateral tariffs. Didn't consult Congress, just... Got into trade wars with a whole bunch of people”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says voters elected Trump primarily to lower prices and avoid new wars, and see him as having broken those promises.
“elected Donald Trump to do one thing, which was lower prices. And as a secondary matter, they said, no more stupid wars”
- Ezra Klein
Klein argues Trump won because of inflation but does not personally care about it.
“He won because inflation was high, but he didn't really care about inflation. That's not what gets him out of bed in the morning”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell argues The Apprentice was central to voters' belief that Trump the businessman could fix the economy.
“I cannot tell you how important The Apprentice is and was to the lore that sort of sits inside voters”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says corruption is breaking through mainly because voters are suffering economically and resent Trump focusing on himself.
“The reason that corruption is breaking through right now is for two reasons. The first is people are suffering economically”
Listen from 17:07 · Political corruption in the United States
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell argues the scale of Trump's corruption becomes white noise unless explained step by step, as Ossoff does.
“the level of Donald Trump's corruption is so big and so multifaceted and so difficult to follow that it can become white noise”
Listen from 22:01 · Political corruption in the United States
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says failing to release the Epstein files broke trust with a strain of Trump voters, especially young men.
“for him to not do that, not come through on that, broke trust with a specific strain of Trump voter”
- Ezra Klein
Klein argues the Epstein episode exposed that Trump is now the establishment and can no longer blame a deep state.
“he's the establishment now. MAGA is in charge. He can't say it's like these guys over here are stopping me from doing it”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell guesses Pete Hegseth will be pushed out to take the fall for the Iran war.
“Well, I do think that Donald Trump needs somebody to take the fall for the war. My guess is that Pete Hegseth goes”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says younger right-leaning voters' belief that Israel drove the Iran war is close to blatant antisemitism and serves as a scapegoat for Trump's failures.
“What I hear, especially from younger voters, it is closer to a very blatant kind of anti-Semitism. It is related to Trump can never fail”
- Ezra Klein
Klein argues that after the recent price surge every incremental increase is politically agonizing even though inflation is modest.
“prices went up so much over the past couple of years that now every incremental increase is just agonizing because what they are not doing ever is going down”
- Ezra Klein
Klein argues the delayed Medicaid cuts will throw millions off coverage and usher in a new era of health care politics in 2028.
“The Medicaid cuts are enormous. They're going to throw millions of people off of health care, millions of Trump voters off of health care”
- Sarah LongwellPrediction · due Dec 2028
Longwell predicts some Republicans will start talking about universal health care in the 2028 debates.
“One of my pet theories is that actually in 2028 in the debates, you're going to see some Republicans starting to talk about universal health care”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says most Trump voters want dangerous criminals deported but long-settled taxpaying immigrants left alone.
“But the person who's paying taxes and has been here for 25 years who lives down the street, like leave that guy alone”
Listen from 47:40 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says Americans who demand immigrants come 'the right way' have little idea how difficult the legal immigration process is.
“they assume that there is some easy process by which one can become a naturalized citizen. They have no idea what it looks like, though”
Listen from 48:10 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
- Ezra Klein
Klein argues masked federal agents signal the government knows its actions are bad and creates a wider zone of anonymous action.
“It also means that the government knows that the thing they're doing is bad enough that it is a problem their faces can be seen”
Listen from 51:42 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell argues anti-ICE sentiment will motivate turnout the way immigration once did for Republicans.
“ICE sentiment is a motivating factor for people that gets them to turn out in a way that immigration has been a turnout mechanism for Republicans in the past”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell says data centers activate voters through energy prices, community disruption and fears of job loss to AI.
“are we building these things in our communities that are ultimately setting up to take our jobs from us?”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell argues Democrats would miss an opportunity if they simply oppose data centers rather than guiding voters through AI's changes.
“If Democrats come in and just say we're anti data centers, we're just going to take the opposite role of Republicans. I think they will miss an opportunity”
- Ezra Klein
Klein observes that AI is an unsettled, non-polarized issue on which politicians do not yet know what they think.
“It is unsettled. It's non-polarizing. I mean, the data center, if you look at the polling, it's not like Democrats oppose data centers and Republicans don't”
- Sarah LongwellPrediction · due Nov 2026
Longwell predicts Josh Shapiro will win reelection as Pennsylvania governor by very large margins.
“Josh Shapiro is about to win by far. unreal margins in the largest swing state in the country”
- Sarah Longwell
Longwell argues low-information Trump-only voters may not turn out without him on the ballot, pushing the midterms into wave territory.
“a lot of these low information voters who turn out just for Donald Trump might not turn out in the midterms”
People
In the conversation
- Ezra KleinNew York Times Opinion columnist and host of The Ezra Klein Show (diarization also merged one PopCast promo line into this label)
- Sarah LongwellBulwark publisher who runs focus groups
Discussed
- Jon OssoffU.S. senator from Georgia cited as connecting corruption and economics
- Josh ShapiroGovernor of Pennsylvania whose residence was set on fire in an arson attack
- Pete ButtigiegFormer U.S. Secretary of Transportation
- Pete HegsethU.S. Secretary of Defense overseeing the Iran campaign
- Kash PatelDirector of the Federal Bureau of Investigation
- Dan BonginoCommentator and former FBI deputy director
- Pam BondiU.S. Attorney General reported fired during the episode
- Marjorie Taylor GreeneRepublican former congresswoman who called Fox News 'fake news' over its war coverage
- Tucker CarlsonConservative broadcaster cited as part of right-wing media
- Benjamin NetanyahuPrime Minister of Israel
- Stephen MillerWhite House deputy chief of staff and architect of the administration's immigration agenda
- Jared KushnerBusinessman and Trump's son-in-law, adviser in the first Trump administration
- Steve WitkoffU.S. envoy conducting negotiations with Iran
- Joe RoganAmerican comedian and host of The Joe Rogan Experience
- Joe BidenFormer president whose economic approval is compared to Trump's
- Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
- Sherrod BrownDemocratic Senate candidate in Ohio and former senator
Topics
- Donald Trump approval rating
- United States war with Iran
- Gas prices and inflation
- Tariffs in the second Trump administration
- Political corruption in the United States
- Jeffrey Epstein
- Antisemitism
- Medicaid
- Universal health care
- U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
- Data centers
- 2026 United States midterm elections
- Focus groups
- Artificial intelligence
- The Apprentice
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From the publisher
Sarah Longwell has probably conducted more focus groups with Trump voters than anyone else in America — hundreds of them, starting in Trump’s first term. So she has a treasure trove of qualitative evidence of how voters have evolved in the Trump era and why many of the president’s voters are souring on him now. Trump’s approval rating has plummeted since the start of his second term, especially among the groups that swung toward him in the last election — young, Black and Hispanic voters. But I wanted to have Longwell on the show to hear what these people are really saying. What exactly has disappointed them about Trump’s second term? And what opportunities could that open for Democrats? Longwell is a founder and the publisher of The Bulwark, the host of “The Focus Group Podcast” and the author of “How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time.”
Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on October 26, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.