“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154

Episode of Modern Wisdom · September 24, 2026 · 1 h 43 min

Political scientist Robert Pape tells Chris Williamson that mass public support for political violence makes the coming US midterms the most dangerous election in living memory.

Summary

Robert Pape, a University of Chicago political scientist who studies terrorism and political violence, argued that the top threat to the United States comes not from foreign states or fringe militias but from tens of millions of ordinary Americans who now say political violence is justified. He described the present period as an era of "violent populism" comparable to the 1920s and 1960s, pointing to three assassination attempts against Donald Trump, attacks on Nancy Pelosi's husband, Brett Kavanaugh and Josh Shapiro, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the George Floyd protests, and January 6.

Pape revealed results from what he said was the 21st national survey conducted by his research center, reporting that 25% of American adults — roughly 65 million people, and 44% of self-identified Democrats — said force was justified to prevent Trump from being president, while 16% supported Trump using the military to suppress Democratic protesters. He said follow-up experiments indicated that 55% of the first group meant assassination. On that basis he predicted that the midterms, and particularly the certification of Congress on January 6, 2027, could produce collective violence larger than January 6, 2021, via a three-stage "domestic escalation trap" of legitimacy shock, a focal-point confrontation and prolonged violent opposition.

Pape disputed the common profile of the political violence supporter, saying his center's case-by-case review of all roughly 1,575 January 6 prosecutions found mostly middle-class, well-educated suburban defendants with only about 10% belonging to militia groups. He attributed the era to two underlying social changes — the shift from a white-majority to a white-minority democracy, and the concentration of wealth in the top 1% — estimating that social change accounts for about 50% of the phenomenon, Trump 25%, and social media and other factors the rest. He said foreign manipulation, including Iranian "Lagos" videos mocking Trump over the Iran war, has had only modest effects, and that a silent majority of 65–70% of Americans who abhor political violence lacks leaders or a vehicle to express that view.

Chapters

0:25
The number one threat to America
Pape argued that mass public support for political violence, not foreign states or militias, is America's greatest threat and marks a new era he calls violent populism.
2:38
Assassinations and unrest of the last five years
Pape catalogued recent attacks including three attempts on Trump, the Pelosi and Shapiro attacks, and the Charlie Kirk assassination.
5:53
Populism versus violent populism
Pape distinguished ordinary anti-establishment populism from violent populism, in which mainstream anger becomes support for violence.
7:15
New survey data on support for violence
Pape disclosed unpublished survey findings that 25% of adults back force against Trump and 16% back military suppression of Democratic protesters, totalling roughly 100 million Americans.
15:08
Is the violence coming from the right or the left?
Pape said studies attributing most violence to the right depend on their start date, and that since about 2015 violence has been balanced between pro-Trump and anti-Trump actors.
24:17
How peaceful protests turn violent
Pape described daily tracking of the 2020 George Floyd protests, the escalation of January 6 from Trump's Ellipse speech, and the 2023–24 campus protests.
43:53
Who supports political violence
Pape said the new profile is educated, middle-class suburban Americans with much to lose, citing January 6 defendants, Luigi Mangione and Cole Allen.
51:33
Radicalization and the silent majority
Pape explained normalization as a cascading phenomenon and argued that a 65–70% majority abhorring violence lacks leaders or vehicles to push back.
56:26
From sentiment to action
Using a wildfire analogy, Pape argued that mass support becomes violence when a focal point such as an election provides the spark, citing manifestos and the Pelosi attacker.
1:06:43
Violent populism abroad and its social drivers
Pape described work with the German, Canadian and British governments and identified demographic change and wealth concentration as the core drivers.
1:19:32
Why the midterms are dangerous
Pape recalled his June 2025 New York Times warning and laid out a three-stage escalation trap culminating on January 6, 2027.
1:25:38
Foreign interference and the Iran videos
Pape said Russian and Iranian influence operations have only modest effects, illustrated by Iranian videos failing to shift MAGA opinion on the Iran war.
1:36:11
How much of this is Trump?
Pape apportioned causes at 50% social change, 25% Trump and 25% social media, citing the failure of deplatforming and the rise of Mamdani.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Robert Pape
Pape argues America's greatest threat is domestic mass support for political violence rather than foreign adversaries or militias.
“It's from tens of millions of Americans who support political violence. Once you have support for political violence lodged in the mainstream of society, this changes everything”
Listen from 0:46 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says the present period is a historically anomalous era he calls violent populism, comparable only to the 1920s and 1960s.
“we are in an era. of historically high political violence and historically high support for political violence that will change the election that we are about to go through in ways we may not really be prepared for”
Listen from 1:43 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts that whichever side loses the midterms will mount violent protests potentially larger than January 6, 2021.
“We are likely to see violent protests, whoever loses, that may be larger than January 6th”
Listen from 8:22 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Robert Pape
Pape reports that his center's newest national survey found 25% of American adults support the use of force to prevent Trump from being president.
“25% of American adults support the use of force to prevent President Trump from being president. That equates to 65 million American adults”
Listen from 8:30 · Chicago Project on Security and Threats
Robert Pape
Pape says survey experiments show most respondents endorsing force against Trump mean assassination specifically.
“55% of the time, they mean assassinating President Trump with rifles as the attempt that failed at Butler”
Listen from 9:44 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape Prediction · due Jan 2027
Pape predicts the midterms will be the most dangerous US elections in living memory, with the danger concentrated on the certification date of January 6, 2027.
“This portends that the midterms will be the most dangerous elections in our lifetimes”
Listen from 12:31 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Robert Pape
Pape reports that 16% of Americans, around 40 million, support Trump using the military to suppress Democratic protesters.
“16% of Americans support President Trump's use of the military to suppress Democratic protesters. That is approximately 40 million Americans”
Listen from 13:14 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape argues that studies naming the right as the main source of domestic violence depend on their start date and that the character of US political violence changed about a decade ago.
“That means the nature of political violence in our country has changed over the last 10 years”
Listen from 15:37 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape argues mass support nudges psychologically volatile individuals into violence by promising social approval.
“it nudges those volatile individuals over the edge because they have an additional motive for carrying out the political violence, which is social approval”
Listen from 22:06 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says daily tracking of the 2020 protests in 50 cities showed a consistent pattern of peaceful daytime demonstrations splintering into violence after dark.
“most were peaceful. That's absolutely true. But there was a very clear pattern, which was the peaceful protests would start usually in the afternoon”
Listen from 24:54 · George Floyd protests
Linked moment · 32:48Skip to 32:48 using a listen link in the info box.
Robert Pape
Pape says Trump made no attempt to call off the Capitol crowd for about three hours and has since glorified and pardoned the participants.
“President Trump did nothing to call them off until the very end”
Listen from 32:48 · January 6 United States Capitol attack
Robert Pape
Pape suggests that stronger police resistance at the Capitol could have drawn far more than 1,600 people into the breach.
“I think there's a good chance you would have had many more than the 1600 come in”
Listen from 37:39 · January 6 United States Capitol attack
Robert Pape
Pape says the modern supporter of political violence is typically an educated, middle-class American with assets, not an unemployed rural militia member.
“the new stereotype, Chris, before I go into examples, are essentially well-educated, middle-class Americans, nice homes, and a 401k, and they wear a suit and tie”
Listen from 44:56 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says his center reviewed all roughly 1,575 January 6 prosecutions and found only 10% were militia members, with 45% business owners and professionals.
“Only 10% were members of militia groups”
Listen from 47:18 · January 6 United States Capitol attack
Robert Pape
Pape argues affluent people risk violence because they fear the other party winning will strip away their future.
“Because they think they're about to lose it all in the next couple of years”
Listen from 49:45 · Political violence in the United States
Chris Williamson
Williamson summarizes the dynamic as mutual fear of the opposition plus social media amplification producing acceptance of extreme measures on both sides.
“Both sides are increasingly worried about what the opposition is going to do to the future of the country and their ability to reverse the changes to the future of the country”
Listen from 52:25 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says a silent majority of two-thirds to 70% of Americans abhors political violence but has no leaders or vehicle to express it.
“we have routinely 65%, 70% of Americans who abhor political violence. They are the silent majority, Chris, but they don't have a good vehicle to express that”
Listen from 53:32 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape argues sympathizers are a bigger problem than violent extremists themselves.
“Oh, the people that sympathize with them, by far, by far”
Listen from 1:03:55 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape argues that mass public support precedes and gives birth to terrorist organizations, citing polling in Northern Ireland in 1969.
“As it actually grows, that's what gives birth to the IRA. It's not the other way around”
Listen from 1:04:59 · Provisional Irish Republican Army
Robert Pape
Pape identifies the shift from a white-majority to a white-minority democracy as the biggest driver of violent populism.
“For the first time in our country's 250-year history, the United States is transitioning from a white majority democracy to a white minority democracy”
Listen from 1:07:58 · Demographic history of the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says believing whites are being deliberately replaced makes respondents four times more likely to support pro-Trump political violence.
“you're not just more likely to vote for Trump, you're four times more likely to support political violence for Trump”
Listen from 1:12:22 · Great Replacement conspiracy theory
Robert Pape
Pape identifies the concentration of wealth in the top 1%, rising from 17% to 26% of national wealth, as the second driver creating a negative-sum society.
“Side by side with this demographic shift has been a mass wealth shift to the top 1%”
Listen from 1:13:55 · Wealth inequality in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says his June 2025 New York Times op-ed warned of imminent assassination attempts and militarized immigration enforcement, which he says occurred months later.
“I published a big piece in the New York Times that we're on the brink of a period of major political violence”
Listen from 1:19:57 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape argues a Democratic victory in 2024 would not have prevented the current violence because it is driven by underlying social change.
“I'm not sure how much it would have changed, Chris, because it's a function of the social changes”
Listen from 1:21:50 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Robert Pape
Pape says the evidence indicates foreign influence operations can magnify existing divisions only modestly and cannot manufacture them.
“the reason I say we are our own worst enemies and not it's China manipulation or Russia manipulation”
Listen from 1:25:49 · Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections
Robert Pape
Pape says the Iran war is the first American war since World War II to produce no rally-around-the-flag effect, with opinion splitting along pre-existing divisions.
“This is the first war where that's not true, the first war where it's not true”
Listen from 1:30:13 · United States war with Iran
Robert Pape
Pape says Russia and China benefit most from American internal division because it consumes US attention.
“without a doubt, it's going to be Russia and China for sure”
Listen from 1:33:16 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape attributes roughly half the phenomenon to social change, a quarter to Trump and a quarter to social media and other factors.
“I would say 50% of this is due to the social changes I laid out. 25% is due to President Trump”
Listen from 1:37:04 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape says the deplatforming of Trump and Tucker Carlson failed to reduce the underlying anger, vindicating his focus on social change.
“We did de-platform Trump. We did de-platform Tucker Carlson. And guess what happened, Chris? We did not actually diminish any of those fires”
Listen from 1:38:18 · Political violence in the United States
Robert Pape
Pape compares Zohran Mamdani's rapid rise on the left to Trump's, arguing both are propelled by the same existential social-change issues.
“Mamdami, almost exactly the same. What are the key issues they're running on? The key social change issues I'm talking about right here”
Listen from 1:39:32 · Political violence in the United States

People

In the conversation

Chris WilliamsonBritish podcaster and host of Modern Wisdom
Robert PapeAmerican political scientist, professor at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats

Discussed

Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
Charlie KirkAmerican conservative activist and podcast host assassinated in September 2025
Nancy PelosiUS congresswoman whose husband was attacked with a hammer in their San Francisco home
Luigi MangioneAccused killer of a health insurance executive, cited as an example of an affluent perpetrator
Josh ShapiroGovernor of Pennsylvania whose residence was set on fire in an arson attack
Brett KavanaughUS Supreme Court justice targeted in an assassination attempt
Mike PenceFormer US vice president who certified the 2020 election result on January 6, 2021
Tucker CarlsonConservative broadcaster cited as part of right-wing media
Zohran MamdaniNew York Democratic politician described by Pape as a left-wing parallel to Trump's rapid rise
Ronald ReaganFormer US president to whom Pape compared Trump's political skill
Melissa HortmanMinnesota legislative leader assassinated along with her husband in 2025
Cole AllenMan described by Pape as the third would-be assassin of Trump, an engineer who wrote a manifesto
Joe BidenFormer president whose economic approval is compared to Trump's
Jeb BushRepublican presidential candidate defeated by Trump in 2016 over immigration

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From the publisher

Robert Pape is a political scientist, professor at the University of Chicago, and author. Why is political violence on the rise in America? With the midterm elections approaching, could this be one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime? What’s driving the hostility, what’s actually at stake, and how could the outcome shape America for years to come? Expect to learn why we’ve entered into a new era of violent populism, why January 6, 2027, will be a major breaking point for both political parties, why the upcoming midterms might be the most dangerous election of our lifetimes, how normal people become radicalised on both sides of the spectrum, why Trump is at the center of political violence for both the left and right, and much more… Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: ⁠https://chriswillx.com/deals⁠ Sign up for a free trial from Shopify at https://shopify.com/modernwisdom Get a Free Sample Pack of LMNT’s most popular flavours with your first purchase at https://drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom Get up to $50 off the RP Hypertrophy App at https://rpstrength.com/modernwisdom Get 15% off your first order of my favourite Non-Alcoholic Brew at https://athleticbrewing.com/modernwisdom Get ChatGPT to explore ideas, solve problems, and learn faster at ⁠https://chatgpt.com Timestamps: (00:00) Is Political Violence America’s #1 Threat? (05:53) Populism vs Violent Populism: What’s the Difference? (07:15) How Much Do Americans Support Political Violence? (15:10) Is Political Violence Coming From the Right or Left? (20:53) Violent Populism Across the Political Spectrum (24:18) How Peaceful Protests Turn Violent (36:32) How Widespread Is Violent Populism? (43:52) What Does a Political Violence Supporter Look Like? (49:22) How Do Ordinary People Become Radicalised? (56:27) Does Supporting Political Violence Make It More Likely? (01:03:50) Are Violent Extremists or Their Sympathisers Worse? (01:06:40) Is Violent Populism Exclusive to America? (…

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 27, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary·Social Sciences