What Sarah Longwell has said about 2026 United States midterm elections

3 quotes · 1 episode · Oct 23, 2026

Sarah Longwell, Bulwark publisher who runs focus groups, has been quoted on 2026 United States midterm elections 3 times in 1 episode of The Ezra Klein Show, most recently on October 23, 2026. Each quote below is verbatim and links to the moment it was said.

In their words

Longwell argues anti-ICE sentiment will motivate turnout the way immigration once did for Republicans.
“ICE sentiment is a motivating factor for people that gets them to turn out in a way that immigration has been a turnout mechanism for Republicans in the past”
The Ezra Klein Show: What Hundreds of Focus Groups With Trump Voters Revealed (Oct 23, 2026) · Listen from 52:59
Prediction · due Nov 2026
Longwell predicts Josh Shapiro will win reelection as Pennsylvania governor by very large margins.
“Josh Shapiro is about to win by far. unreal margins in the largest swing state in the country”
The Ezra Klein Show: What Hundreds of Focus Groups With Trump Voters Revealed (Oct 23, 2026) · Listen from 1:04:33
Longwell argues low-information Trump-only voters may not turn out without him on the ballot, pushing the midterms into wave territory.
“a lot of these low information voters who turn out just for Donald Trump might not turn out in the midterms”
The Ezra Klein Show: What Hundreds of Focus Groups With Trump Voters Revealed (Oct 23, 2026) · Listen from 1:06:23

Prediction · due Nov 2026
Longwell predicts Josh Shapiro will win reelection as Pennsylvania governor by very large margins.
“Josh Shapiro is about to win by far. unreal margins in the largest swing state in the country”
The Ezra Klein Show: What Hundreds of Focus Groups With Trump Voters Revealed (Oct 23, 2026) · Listen from 1:04:33 · 2026 United States midterm elections

What Hundreds of Focus Groups With Trump Voters Revealed
The Ezra Klein Show · Oct 23, 2026 · 1 h 8 min
Ezra Klein and Sarah Longwell draw on hundreds of focus groups to explain why Trump voters are souring on his second term and what Democrats might do.