Sarah Paine
American historian and geopolitical strategist, retired professor at the U.S. Naval War College specializing in Russian and Chinese history and maritime strategy
Sarah Paine (American historian and geopolitical strategist, retired professor at the U.S. Naval War College specializing in Russian and Chinese history and maritime strategy) has appeared as a guest on 1 episode in TMT. Topics they speak about most include Russian invasion of Ukraine, Succession of power in Russia, United States war with Iran.
In their words
Positions and remarks grouped by topic, each with the exact quote and where it was said.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Paine expects European support for Ukraine to continue because Europeans believe Russia will come for them next.
“I don't think it will from Europe. Why? Because Europe, Russia will be coming for the rest of Europe”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:28:17
Paine judges that history will regard Zelensky as a hero and a great statesman.
“He's a hero for all time. Oh, he's, he's, you met a great statesman”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:04:38
Paine explains that unlimited war aims put adversaries on 'death ground,' turning even dysfunctional states into lethal opponents.
“it can transform the most dysfunctional country into a lethal adversary, as Hitler discovered”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 25:26
Paine argues Putin's full invasion was a pivotal error and he would have done better holding Crimea and Donbas while slowly destabilizing Ukraine.
“Putin would have been much better when he did the easy walking with his little green men into Crimea and Donbass of just sitting with that”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 16:27
Other remarks
Paine recounts living in the Soviet Union in 1988–89 and finding grocery stores nearly empty.
“went into one of their grocery stores, and it had a total of 77 items”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:18:50
Paine criticizes foreign-born tech billionaires for influencing U.S. elections, citing Elon Musk's spending in Texas.
“Elon Musk has put $160 million into the state of Texas”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:08:00
Paine proposes that the next Congress impeach and convict Trump as a way out of the Iran war.
“There is a solution for the United States, is with the next Congress, impeach and convict him”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:04:04
Paine suggests the hardship facing young Americans stems from the tax code rather than immigration.
“But in the United States, I suspect the answer is not immigrants. It's probably our tax code”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 46:36
Succession of power in Russia
Paine estimates post-dictatorship instability could take around a decade to resolve and urges democracies to plan for dictators' deaths.
“But I'm going to make up a number and say 10 years. So the Democratic Corps should have a plan for when various dictators die”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:34:32
Paine says she has never heard that Russians think taking Ukraine is a bad idea, making a democratic successor unlikely soon.
“But I've never heard that Russians think it's a bad idea to take Ukraine”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:32:53
Paine argues dictators like Putin have no safe way to leave power alive, which drives them to keep escalating.
“For many of them, there's no off-ramp where they're alive”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 38:46
United States war with Iran
Paine argues the Iran war has cost the U.S. its alliance system and that it will never again be a trusted partner.
“we've lost our alliance system sure someone else can reassess and we'll try to restore stuff but we will never be the trusted partner ever again it's done”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 15:56
Paine argues the wars in Ukraine and Iran teach countries to acquire nuclear weapons, incentivizing proliferation.
“It's like if you don't have one, you're toast. We have incentivized proliferation”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 13:29
Paine argues the U.S. war with Iran is among the most incompetent wars in history.
“Well, the Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 7:10
Persecution of Uyghurs in China
Paine suggests Xi Jinping's treatment of Uyghurs stems from fear of China fracturing along ethnic lines as the Soviet Union did.
“And Xi Jinping, I suspect that explains his genocide of all the Muslims”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:36:10
Starlink
Paine argues Musk's use of a Starlink kill switch will deter other countries from buying the service.
“by Musk doing the kill switch on Starlink, has made it so no one's going to be”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:25:48
Gas prices and inflation
Paine calls claims of a Trump–Putin diesel deal disinformation, saying Russia lacks meaningful diesel export capacity and blaming the Iran war for prices.
“Russia has no capacity to export diesel in sufficient quantities to make any difference whatsoever”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:23:34
Enlargement of NATO
Paine rejects the NATO-provocation argument, saying former Soviet-bloc states sought membership out of fear of Russia.
“It was absolutely the opposite. These folks were stampeding to NATO's doors”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 1:17:28
Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act
Paine argues 1930 U.S. tariffs provoked retaliatory tariffs that deepened the Great Depression and pushed Japan toward empire.
“America puts up tariffs. What do you suppose everyone's going to do? Put up their tariffs”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 57:36
2026 United States midterm elections
Paine says polls now suggest Republicans could lose both the House and the Senate in the midterms, though she is uncertain.
“The polls were originally he might well lose the House, maybe the Senate. Now it looks like both”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 53:26
China–Russia relations
Paine argues China backs Russia to push the U.S. out while also benefiting from Russia weakening itself.
“From their point of view, they want the United States just out of everyone's business. And they also don't particularly like Russia either”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 41:26
Rules-based international order
Paine contends that governments are primarily about negative objectives, preventing disasters that go unnoticed.
“And since I'm on this topic, governments, I believe, are primarily about negative objectives. Preventing disasters”
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America (Oct 29, 2026) · Listen from 6:24
Appearances
Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From AmericaThe Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett · Oct 29, 2026 · 1 h 42 min
Historian Sarah Paine tells Steven Bartlett why the Iran war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and U.S. continentalism threaten the rules-based maritime order and risk World War III.
Often appears with
- Steven Bartlett · 1 shared episode