Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America

Episode of The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett · October 29, 2026 · 1 h 42 min

Historian Sarah Paine tells Steven Bartlett why the Iran war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and U.S. continentalism threaten the rules-based maritime order and risk World War III.

Summary

Steven Bartlett interviewed Sarah Paine, a retired U.S. Naval War College professor, about rising global conflict. Paine framed world politics as a contest between continental powers that seek territory and burn wealth and a maritime, rules-based order that compounds wealth through trade. She introduced a series of analytical concepts, including negative versus positive objectives, pivotal errors, limited versus unlimited objectives, "death ground," half-court tennis, and the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war.

Paine was sharply critical of the Trump administration, arguing that the U.S. war with Iran was among the most incompetent in history: it raised energy prices, damaged the U.S. alliance system, triggered closure of the Strait of Hormuz and, in her view, incentivized nuclear proliferation. She criticized Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, tariffs, threats toward Canada and Greenland, and the seizure of Nicolás Maduro, classing Donald Trump alongside Russia and China as a continentalist. She urged Americans to vote in the 2026 midterms and suggested impeachment by the next Congress.

On Ukraine, Paine described Vladimir Putin's invasion as a pivotal error with genocidal, unlimited aims, rejected the argument that NATO enlargement provoked Russia, and recounted living in the Soviet Union in 1988–89. She argued that Ukraine was winning by defending itself, that China was exploiting a weakened Russia, and that Putin's death would bring a chaotic succession struggle lasting perhaps a decade. Bartlett relayed accounts from his own conversations with Volodymyr Zelensky.

The discussion also covered Europe's rapid institution-building and Canada's organization of middle powers, the U.S. tax code and monopsony as drivers of inequality, China's twentieth-century wars, the persecution of Uyghurs, and Paine's advice to young people to read, talk across political divides and vote.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Opening and the risk of world war

    Paine warns that reckless leaders are pushing the world toward a world war and Bartlett asks where the current disorder began.

  2. 2:48

    Maritime versus continental order and negative objectives

    Paine contrasts land-grabbing continental empires with the wealth-compounding maritime rules-based order and explains why governments mostly pursue unseen negative objectives.

  3. 7:10

    The Iran war as a strategic failure

    Paine argues the U.S. war with Iran trashed the economy and alliances, overlooked the Strait of Hormuz, and incentivized nuclear proliferation.

  4. 15:56

    Pivotal errors, unlimited objectives and death ground

    Paine applies her concepts to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the collapse of norms, Europe's institution-building and the dangers of unlimited war aims.

  5. 27:07

    Gas prices, Russian history and sanctions

    Paine urges voters to respond to rising fuel costs, rejects ceding Ukraine to Russia, and explains Soviet collapse and the compounding cost of lost growth.

  6. 38:07

    Dictatorships and China's backing of Russia

    Paine discusses why dictators lack off-ramps, the fall of the Romanovs, and how China profits from a weakened Russia.

  7. 43:25

    Europe's pressures and the U.S. tax code

    Bartlett raises Europe's economic woes and Paine points to post-war institution building and argues U.S. inequality stems from the tax code and monopsony.

  8. 52:43

    Midterms and the democratic core

    Paine explains the 2026 midterms, criticizes the Republican Party, and discusses Taiwan and China's history of wars and tariffs.

  9. 1:01:16

    World War III, nuclear risk and America's isolation

    Paine discusses nuclear deterrence, NATO Article 5, Zelensky's legacy, and why the world is turning away from the United States.

  10. 1:10:40

    Message to the young and levels of warfare

    Paine apologizes to the younger generation, urges learning and voting, and explains the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war.

  11. 1:16:59

    NATO expansion and Ukraine's prospects

    Paine rebuts the NATO-provocation argument, recounts Soviet life, disputes claims about Russian diesel and argues Ukraine is winning.

  12. 1:30:44

    Post-Putin Russia, the maritime order and closing

    Paine predicts a chaotic succession after Putin, defends the maritime order, discusses the Uyghurs, and explains her lifelong interest in Russia and China.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine contends that governments are primarily about negative objectives, preventing disasters that go unnoticed.

    “And since I'm on this topic, governments, I believe, are primarily about negative objectives. Preventing disasters”

    Listen from 6:24 · Rules-based international order

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues the U.S. war with Iran is among the most incompetent wars in history.

    “Well, the Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history”

    Listen from 7:10 · United States war with Iran

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues the wars in Ukraine and Iran teach countries to acquire nuclear weapons, incentivizing proliferation.

    “It's like if you don't have one, you're toast. We have incentivized proliferation”

    Listen from 13:29 · United States war with Iran

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues the Iran war has cost the U.S. its alliance system and that it will never again be a trusted partner.

    “we've lost our alliance system sure someone else can reassess and we'll try to restore stuff but we will never be the trusted partner ever again it's done”

    Listen from 15:56 · United States war with Iran

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues Putin's full invasion was a pivotal error and he would have done better holding Crimea and Donbas while slowly destabilizing Ukraine.

    “Putin would have been much better when he did the easy walking with his little green men into Crimea and Donbass of just sitting with that”

    Listen from 16:27 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Steven Bartlett

    Bartlett relays that Zelensky told him invading Russian troops carried only a few days of food, expecting a quick war.

    “Zelensky told me that when the Russian soldiers rolled in, he found that they had brought food for three to 10 days”

    Listen from 24:21 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine explains that unlimited war aims put adversaries on 'death ground,' turning even dysfunctional states into lethal opponents.

    “it can transform the most dysfunctional country into a lethal adversary, as Hitler discovered”

    Listen from 25:26 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues dictators like Putin have no safe way to leave power alive, which drives them to keep escalating.

    “For many of them, there's no off-ramp where they're alive”

    Listen from 38:46 · Succession of power in Russia

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues China backs Russia to push the U.S. out while also benefiting from Russia weakening itself.

    “From their point of view, they want the United States just out of everyone's business. And they also don't particularly like Russia either”

    Listen from 41:26 · China–Russia relations

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine suggests the hardship facing young Americans stems from the tax code rather than immigration.

    “But in the United States, I suspect the answer is not immigrants. It's probably our tax code”

    Listen from 46:36

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine says polls now suggest Republicans could lose both the House and the Senate in the midterms, though she is uncertain.

    “The polls were originally he might well lose the House, maybe the Senate. Now it looks like both”

    Listen from 53:26 · 2026 United States midterm elections

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues 1930 U.S. tariffs provoked retaliatory tariffs that deepened the Great Depression and pushed Japan toward empire.

    “America puts up tariffs. What do you suppose everyone's going to do? Put up their tariffs”

    Listen from 57:36 · Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine proposes that the next Congress impeach and convict Trump as a way out of the Iran war.

    “There is a solution for the United States, is with the next Congress, impeach and convict him”

    Listen from 1:04:04

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine judges that history will regard Zelensky as a hero and a great statesman.

    “He's a hero for all time. Oh, he's, he's, you met a great statesman”

    Listen from 1:04:38 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Linked moment · 1:08:00Skip to 1:08:00 using a listen link in the info box.

    Sarah Paine

    Paine criticizes foreign-born tech billionaires for influencing U.S. elections, citing Elon Musk's spending in Texas.

    “Elon Musk has put $160 million into the state of Texas”

    Listen from 1:08:00

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine rejects the NATO-provocation argument, saying former Soviet-bloc states sought membership out of fear of Russia.

    “It was absolutely the opposite. These folks were stampeding to NATO's doors”

    Listen from 1:17:28 · Enlargement of NATO

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine recounts living in the Soviet Union in 1988–89 and finding grocery stores nearly empty.

    “went into one of their grocery stores, and it had a total of 77 items”

    Listen from 1:18:50

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine calls claims of a Trump–Putin diesel deal disinformation, saying Russia lacks meaningful diesel export capacity and blaming the Iran war for prices.

    “Russia has no capacity to export diesel in sufficient quantities to make any difference whatsoever”

    Listen from 1:23:34 · Gas prices and inflation

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine argues Musk's use of a Starlink kill switch will deter other countries from buying the service.

    “by Musk doing the kill switch on Starlink, has made it so no one's going to be”

    Listen from 1:25:48 · Starlink

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine expects European support for Ukraine to continue because Europeans believe Russia will come for them next.

    “I don't think it will from Europe. Why? Because Europe, Russia will be coming for the rest of Europe”

    Listen from 1:28:17 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine says she has never heard that Russians think taking Ukraine is a bad idea, making a democratic successor unlikely soon.

    “But I've never heard that Russians think it's a bad idea to take Ukraine”

    Listen from 1:32:53 · Succession of power in Russia

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine estimates post-dictatorship instability could take around a decade to resolve and urges democracies to plan for dictators' deaths.

    “But I'm going to make up a number and say 10 years. So the Democratic Corps should have a plan for when various dictators die”

    Listen from 1:34:32 · Succession of power in Russia

  • Sarah Paine

    Paine suggests Xi Jinping's treatment of Uyghurs stems from fear of China fracturing along ethnic lines as the Soviet Union did.

    “And Xi Jinping, I suspect that explains his genocide of all the Muslims”

    Listen from 1:36:10 · Persecution of Uyghurs in China

People

In the conversation

  • Steven BartlettBritish entrepreneur and host of The Diary Of A CEO podcast
  • Sarah PaineAmerican historian and geopolitical strategist, retired professor at the U.S. Naval War College specializing in Russian and Chinese history and maritime strategy

Discussed

Topics

More from The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

From the publisher

Are escalating geopolitical tensions hurtling humanity towards World War III? Dr. Sarah Paine highlights the historical roots of geopolitical conflicts and demonstrates how shifting away from a rules-based maritime order guarantees economic collapse. Dr. Sarah Paine is a renowned geopolitical strategist, historian, and retired professor from the U.S. Naval War College, specializing in Russian and Chinese imperial history and maritime strategy. She applies historical models such as the Peloponnesian War and World War II to decode the actions of leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. In this episode, she explains: ■ The Maritime vs. Continental Divide: How the world is split between maritime powers compounding wealth through free trade and continental empires burning wealth through territorial conquest. ■ The Cost of Isolationism: Why sudden, aggressive tariffs and the abandonment of key international alliances rapidly accelerate inflation, shrink global influence, and destabilize the U.S. economy. ■ The Death Ground Principle: How threatening an adversary's very existence removes all their strategic alternatives, transforming struggling nations into highly lethal, unyielding military opponents. ■ The Illusion of Dictatorial Stability: Why the lack of a peaceful transition of power in dictatorships guarantees that the death of a leader like Putin will trigger profound, unpredictable instability and violent internal power struggles. ■ The Power of Negative Objectives: Why a government's most vital job goes completely unnoticed, focusing on preventing catastrophic disasters before they happen rather than chasing highly publicized achievements. Chapters 00:00:00 Intro 00:02:11 How Did the World Get So Close to World War III? 00:07:03 Was the Iran War a Catastrophic Mistake? 00:09:17 Where the Trump Administration Went Wrong 00:15:51 Putin's Biggest Mistake in the Russia-Ukraine War 00:20:17 Should America Stop Fighting Other Countries' Wars? 00:21:22 Why Americans…

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 8, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·History·News Commentary