Blue Wave Building in the Strait of Hormuz

Episode of Pod Save America · March 27, 2026 · 1 h 4 min

Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer discuss Trump's Iran war, record-low approval ratings, Florida special election wins, the TSA pay crisis, and California's chaotic governor primary.

Summary

Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer opened by reviewing reports that President Donald Trump had grown bored with the war he started against Iran even as the Pentagon prepared options for a ground invasion and a renewed bombing campaign. They played clips from a cabinet meeting in which Trump denied being desperate for a deal and claimed the United States did not need the Strait of Hormuz, and argued that his claims of ongoing negotiations were likely exaggerated or invented. Pfeiffer said Trump was behaving like a passive observer of his own war, and both hosts pointed to rising gas, diesel and jet fuel prices, displacement of millions in Iran and Lebanon, and global fertilizer and energy shortages as evidence that the conflict was affecting Americans directly.

The hosts then turned to politics, citing classified Pentagon briefings that left Republicans including Mike Rogers, Roger Wicker and Nancy Mace visibly unsettled. Pfeiffer summarized polling showing Trump's approval below 40 percent in three surveys, with a Fox poll putting disapproval at 59 percent, and argued that Trump had lost his historic advantage on the economy. He said the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump was roughly double those who strongly approve, that the enthusiasm gap had reversed, and that conditions resembled 1994, 2006 and 2018 wave elections — though he cautioned that Democrats' own party brand remained weak and that candidates still had to earn trust on cost of living. They highlighted Democratic flips of two Florida state legislative seats, including the district containing Mar-a-Lago, and noted Trump had voted there by mail after denouncing mail-in ballots.

Favreau and Pfeiffer covered the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that had left TSA agents unpaid for a month, producing long airport lines and roughly 500 resignations. Trump announced during taping that he would order DHS to pay TSA workers; the hosts questioned the legality, noting Bloomberg's Eric Wasson had reported a similar likely illegal move to pay troops during an earlier shutdown, and Pfeiffer explained that the negotiating sticking point involved funding CBP and Homeland Security Investigations without immigration enforcement reforms.

The episode closed on California's jungle primary for governor, where polls commissioned by the state Democratic Party showed Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton leading with no Democrat above 10 percent. Pfeiffer called it a collective action problem, urged lower-polling candidates to drop out and endorse a viable contender, and said figures such as Gavin Newsom, Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla would eventually need to tell voters which candidates could win. Favreau suggested Democrats could copy Newsom's 2018 tactic of elevating one Republican, though Pfeiffer argued the math differed this time.

Chapters

0:20
Opening and subscriber pitch
Favreau previews the episode and promotes Crooked Media's Friends of the Pod subscription.
2:30
Trump's boredom with the Iran war
The hosts discuss Wall Street Journal and Axios reports that Trump wants the war over while the Pentagon plans a ground invasion, and play cabinet meeting audio.
6:51
What is actually happening in the negotiations
Favreau and Pfeiffer try to parse conflicting claims about mediators, Iranian officials, and Trump's shifting deadlines.
10:30
Economic fallout and domestic lies
Rising gas, diesel, jet fuel and mortgage costs are discussed alongside refugee displacement and global supply disruptions.
15:21
Hegseth's cabinet meeting performance
A clip of the defense secretary comparing Iran to the Iraq surge prompts mockery and discussion of curated battlefield highlight reels for Trump.
23:19
Republicans rattled by classified briefings
Mike Rogers, Roger Wicker and Nancy Mace express concern about a possible ground invasion, and the hosts assess the political implications.
29:15
Trump's record-low approval and the midterm map
Pfeiffer previews his Message Box analysis of polling, the generic ballot, enthusiasm gaps and the 2026 and 2028 Senate maps.
38:40
Florida special election flips
Democrats win two state legislative seats including the Mar-a-Lago district, and Trump's mail-in ballot hypocrisy is examined.
44:55
The DHS shutdown and TSA pay order
Breaking news that Trump will order DHS to pay TSA agents prompts discussion of legality, the ICE funding standoff, and airport chaos.
51:16
California's governor primary crisis
Polls showing two Republicans advancing in the jungle primary lead to debate over debate criteria, candidate drop-outs and endorsements.
1:02:53
Closing notes
Favreau promotes No Kings Day and an upcoming Alex Wagner interview with Don Lemon.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argued that reporting shows Trump lacks the attention span for the war he started and is behaving like a passive observer.
“the takeaway is that Trump just simply doesn't have the attention span for the war he started. And when you read the story, he's like a passive observer of the war”
Listen from 6:03 · United States war with Iran
Jon Favreau
Favreau said Trump treats the war like an episode of a television show whose run has ended.
“it's another episode of The Trump Show, and he feels like the episode has run its course and it's time for a new episode because otherwise he's going to lose the audience”
Listen from 6:22 · United States war with Iran
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said Trump is likely fabricating or overstating negotiations, possibly to manipulate markets.
“It appears he's making up negotiations of some kind, or at least he's dramatically overstating what's happening in order to manipulate the market”
Listen from 9:23 · United States war with Iran
Jon Favreau
Favreau said the worst of the oil crisis has not hit because supplies shipped before the war are still in circulation, and that fertilizer and other goods will also be affected.
“the worst of the oil crisis hasn't hit yet because there are still tankers that took off before the war began”
Listen from 11:19 · Strait of Hormuz
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argued the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is plainly affecting Americans through gas, diesel and airline costs.
“if the Strait being closed doesn't affect us, why are our gas prices up more than a dollar? Why are they about to hit an average of $4 nationally any day now?”
Listen from 12:21 · Gas prices and inflation
Jon Favreau
Favreau predicted Trump will keep postponing the deadline to destroy Iran's power plants because doing so would send energy prices soaring across the Middle East.
“my guess on this like pushing back the deadline thing is the deadline is just going to keep getting pushed back”
Listen from 13:26 · United States war with Iran
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said aides shield Trump from bad war news the way parents placate a toddler to avoid a meltdown.
“we're making decisions around war and military, quote unquote, excursions the same way parents treat a hangry toddler”
Listen from 18:57 · United States war with Iran
Nancy Mace
Mace said the classified briefing produced frustration and that putting troops on the ground carries far greater gravity than prior steps.
“there was frustration that reverberated throughout based on the information that we were receiving”
Listen from 24:11 · United States war with Iran
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argued the Iran campaign has no strategy, objective or endgame a month in.
“We're a month into it. There is no strategy. There is no objective. There is no end game”
Listen from 27:09 · United States war with Iran
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said Marco Rubio is defining success as whatever has already occurred so that later developments can be blamed on Hegseth.
“he basically has tried to define success as what's already happened”
Listen from 28:40 · United States war with Iran
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said Trump no longer boosts Republican turnout, citing strong disapproval at twice the level of strong approval.
“the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump is two times the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump. Republicans like Trump, they don't love him anymore”
Listen from 30:33 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said Trump is more unpopular than any modern president at this point in a presidency, including himself in his first term.
“Trump is not just unpopular. He's more unpopular than any modern president at this point in the presidency, including Donald Trump in his first term”
Listen from 30:45 · Donald Trump approval rating
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argued Trump has lost his longstanding advantage on the economy, now trailing badly on economic and inflation ratings.
“He has 20 points underwater on the economy, 30 points underwater on inflation”
Listen from 31:10 · Donald Trump approval rating
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said conditions resemble past wave elections but Democrats still must improve their party brand and win trust on cost of living.
“this is a historic opportunity for the party. The political Storm clouds have aligned as such that we have a shot to have a very, very big election. We have work to do to get there”
Listen from 35:53 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Favreau
Favreau argued a future Democratic president without a congressional majority would be reduced to executive actions blocked by the Supreme Court.
“A Democratic president without a congressional majority passing a bunch of executive actions Not going to fly”
Listen from 38:46 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer noted that Trump's own 2024 campaign encouraged mail balloting and that Florida's mail voting long benefited Republicans.
“His campaign aggressively encouraged mail balloting in 2024”
Listen from 41:27 · Mail-in voting
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said Democratic vote totals in the Florida special elections exceeded the number of registered Democrats, indicating crossover support.
“The number of votes received by both the Democrats in these districts dramatically exceeded the number of registered Democrats in the district”
Listen from 42:47 · Florida state legislative special elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer cited Amy Walter's analysis that special election margins have historically tracked midterm popular vote outcomes.
“special elections have been pretty predictive of midterms. So both in 2018, Democrats were winning special elections by about 11.5 points, and they won the national popular vote by nine points”
Listen from 43:02 · Florida state legislative special elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said Trump's announcement signals no shutdown deal exists and questioned where the money to pay TSA would legally come from.
“that says there's no deal, which means there's no law being passed that sends money to the Department of Homeland Security that they can then take that money and give it to the workers”
Listen from 46:40 · Department of Homeland Security shutdown
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer explained the negotiating sticking point was that funding DHS minus ICE would still fund CBP and HSI immigration enforcement without reforms.
“if you fund all of DHS except ICE, you're still funding CBP and HSI, Homeland Security Investigations, and they do immigration enforcement”
Listen from 47:48 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Jon Favreau
Favreau questioned why Republicans blocked Democratic efforts to fund TSA when Trump is now paying agents through emergency authority.
“Why then, for the last two weeks, have Republicans blocked Democrats' efforts to simply just fund TSA?”
Listen from 49:17 · Department of Homeland Security shutdown
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer urged low-polling Democratic candidates without money or name recognition to drop out and endorse a viable contender.
“the best thing you can do is drop out and endorse someone who has a chance to win”
Listen from 57:36 · 2026 California gubernatorial election
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer said California's size, ad costs and hollowed-out local media make it nearly impossible for underfunded candidates to become known.
“The system here sucks because of how expensive it is to run ads. And the state's too big to go around and meet everyone”
Listen from 59:11 · 2026 California gubernatorial election
Jon Favreau
Favreau suggested Democrats copy Newsom's 2018 strategy of elevating a single Trump-aligned Republican such as Steve Hilton to consolidate GOP votes.
“I would imagine if they all decided we're going to all go after Steve Hilton, he's the boogeyman. He loves Trump. He's on Fox all the time and make him the big, the big bad guy”
Listen from 1:00:29 · 2026 California gubernatorial election
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer countered that elevating one Republican now may simply raise Hilton without lowering Bianco because the situations differ.
“I'm not sure you're going to lower Bianco. You might just raise Hilton”
Listen from 1:01:32 · 2026 California gubernatorial election

People

In the conversation

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama
Dan PfeifferCo-host of Pod Save America, author of the Message Box newsletter, and former White House communications director

Discussed

Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
Pete HegsethU.S. Secretary of Defense overseeing the Iran campaign
Nancy MaceRepublican U.S. Representative from South Carolina running for governor
Mike RogersRepublican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee
Roger WickerRepublican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee
Marco RubioU.S. Secretary of State who defended the Iran campaign at a cabinet meeting
JD VanceVice President of the United States
Nate SilverElections analyst whose polling model and averages are cited
Gavin NewsomGovernor of California, cited for his 2018 primary strategy
Katie PorterDemocratic candidate for governor of California
Eric SwalwellDemocratic U.S. Representative and candidate for governor of California
Tom SteyerDemocratic candidate for governor of California and billionaire investor
Xavier BecerraFormer U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California attorney general running for governor
Antonio VillaraigosaFormer Los Angeles mayor running for governor of California
Matt MahanMayor of San Jose and candidate for governor of California
Steve HiltonRepublican candidate for governor of California and former Fox News host
Chad BiancoRiverside County sheriff and Republican candidate for governor of California
Chris MurphyDemocratic U.S. Senator from Connecticut quoted on the TSA emergency
John ThuneSenate Republican leader mentioned in relation to shutdown negotiations
Amy WalterEditor of the Cook Political Report cited on special election predictiveness
Lakshya JainElections analyst writing at The Argument
Kamala HarrisFormer Vice President mentioned as a potential California endorser
Sergey BrinGoogle co-founder who Rose said toured him through Google X
John CoxRepublican businessman who advanced to the 2018 California gubernatorial general election
Harry ReidLate Senate Democratic leader invoked by Hegseth over the Iraq War
Eric WassonBloomberg congressional reporter cited on Trump's shutdown payment tactics
Barack ObamaFormer president referenced in comparing 2010 midterm conditions
Joe BidenFormer president whose economic approval is compared to Trump's
Alex WagnerMSNBC host who hosts episodes in the Pod Save America feed
Don LemonIndependent journalist and former CNN anchor scheduled as an upcoming guest

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From the publisher

Donald Trump's approval rating hits historic lows as voters react to soaring gas prices caused by his war of choice with Iran. Dan and Jon discuss what those new figures mean for the upcoming midterms and react to Florida Democrats flipping the state legislative seat that includes the president's home at Mar-a-Lago. Plus: the new report that Trump is tiring of the war even as he plans a ground invastion, his likely illegal attempt to pay TSA workers by executive order, and the election crisis facing Democrats in California. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here . For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 27, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary·Government