Strait of Hormuz

Vietor predicts Trump's Hormuz toll plan is an empty threat for leverage that the White House will soon walk back.

“my guess is that this is an empty threat designed to create leverage from the white house and they'll probably walk the whole thing back in a couple days”

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Vietor worried that Iran's threats would leave shipping and energy prices unsettled for a long time.

“I'm worried about this just kind of bumping along in an unsettled fashion for a while. I'm worried about ongoing high energy prices”

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Vietor argues the war taught Iran it can disrupt the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

“And Iran now knows it can shut down the global economy at any time. by closing the Strait of Hormuz”

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Vietor warns that Houthi involvement in the Red Sea could push oil prices to $300 a barrel.

“If the Houthis get involved and they choke off those access points too, like prices could hit $300 a barrel”

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Favreau argued the U.S. gained essentially nothing, since the strait was previously open international waters and will now be jointly controlled by Iran and Oman with fees.

“The theoretical opening of the Strait that Iran and Oman are going to jointly control and can charge fees whenever they want”

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Favreau argues Trump cannot simply wash his hands of the region because Iran can draw the U.S. back in by closing the strait.

“Iran, of course, knows that it can get us back into the whole thing just by closing the straight again”

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Favreau argues the Iranian regime's survival would itself count as a victory for Tehran against the U.S. and Israel.

“For them, the regime surviving, even with all this damage, is a win for them because then they can say and they can show the world the United States and Israel gave it everything they had”

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Favreau said the worst of the oil crisis has not hit because supplies shipped before the war are still in circulation, and that fertilizer and other goods will also be affected.

“the worst of the oil crisis hasn't hit yet because there are still tankers that took off before the war began”

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Kelly argues the war set a global precedent that waterways can be used as leverage.

“The waterways are a leverage point in war in international relations”

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Kelly argued the U.S. should urgently develop oil routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz to remove Iran's leverage.

“my first takeaway after that was we better make damn sure somehow – that there are ways around the Strait of Hormuz”

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Kelly argued the war empowered Iran by giving it control of the Strait of Hormuz, a lever she considered more powerful than a nuclear weapon.

“We've given them a new tool, even more powerful than a nuke. That's what this war has done to Iran”

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Kelly says Iran is now earning far more from oil because it controls the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the U.S. bombing campaign began.

“Mae Iran yn gwneud arian oherwydd maen nhw wedi cymryd drosodd Hormuz”

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Pfeiffer predicts shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to prewar levels for at least six months.

“we're not going to see anywhere near the sort of traffic going through the Strait that we had before for six months at the earliest”

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Pfeiffer argues that economic damage from the war will persist because clearing mines from the Strait would take months.

“Even if you open the Strait today, the United States government estimates it'll take six months to clear it of mines”

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Ryan argues the U.S. failure to stop Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz means gas prices will not come back down and has made Iran a global power.

“hello, new gas prices, like they're not fucking coming back down. We just turned Iran into”

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Vance argues that military force alone cannot keep the Strait of Hormuz open because cheap drones make shipping easy to disrupt, so diplomacy is necessary.

“To the extent you shut it down, you shut down 25% of the world's energy supply, okay?”

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Lovett argues it is not the traditional role of the U.S. military to be a permanent security detail for oil tankers.

“it's not traditionally, in the conception of Americans, the role of the U.S. military to be the permanent security detail for oil tankers”

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Wagner argued the unresolved dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz will keep harming the global economy and Republicans before the midterms.

“that is an unresolved dispute that is going to continue to fuck the global economy and could make life incredibly painful for Republicans heading into the midterms”

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Ahmari argues Iran is overplaying its leverage over the strait by attacking civilian ships.

“I think the Iranians are overplaying a good hand, right? They had this capacity, which they didn't even weren't fully aware of it, which is to choke this global energy point”

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Davis argues the Strait of Hormuz is mainly a European concern that NATO and Europe should resolve.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not something that's particularly essential for America. We don't get most of our oil through there, but Europe does”

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Claver says he predicted the Strait of Hormuz shutdown well before it happened.

“I called that about eight months, a year before it happened”

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Lowry argues that winning the war would have required forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a risky operation Trump was unwilling to undertake.

“Winning the war would have required at least freeing up the straight of her moves by force of arms which have been very complicated risky and protected operation”

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