Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?

Episode of Pod Save America · October 18, 2026 · 1 h 11 min

Dan Pfeiffer and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter assess the 2026 midterm landscape two weeks out, covering Senate and House races, polling, Trump, and redistricting.

Summary

Dan Pfeiffer interviewed Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report less than two weeks before the 2026 midterm elections. Walter described the environment as the most brutal for Republicans in at least 20 years, comparing it to 2006 because of a president with sub-40% approval, an unpopular war in Iran, corruption, and anger over costs. Pfeiffer argued the environment was worse for Republicans than 2006 and that heavy Republican spending had failed to move Democratic candidates' favorability.

Walter argued that Republican attacks on socialism, immigration, and cultural issues were failing against voter concern about gas prices and inflation, noting polling suggesting the MAGA label was more toxic than the socialist label. Discussing Charlie Cook's "blue wave" versus "red undertow" framing, she said Democratic enthusiasm and independents formed the wave, while disengaged Republicans staying home would determine whether Democrats won deep-red seats in states like Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. Both discussed whether polls could be trusted, with Pfeiffer noting polls underestimated Democrats in 2025.

Walter said she saw little strategic upside to Trump's rally schedule, attributing it to a "let Trump be Trump" approach and his desire to prove critics wrong. On the House, she argued that Republican redistricting in Texas and Florida assumed 2024-level Latino support that was not materializing, and outlined bellwether districts in Kentucky, Iowa, Virginia, and elsewhere, likening the wave to an uneven tornado. The pair discussed Democratic underperformance in blue states such as Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, and New York, which Walter attributed to limited elasticity in polarized states and local factors like Minnesota's welfare fraud scandal. They closed on Kansas, where Walter credited farm-economy pain, Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton's profile as a pastor, and Senator Roger Marshall's weaknesses.

Chapters

0:21
Introduction and final stretch
Pfeiffer introduces Amy Walter and they discuss the exhausting final two weeks before the midterms.
2:56
A 2006-style environment
Walter explains why the environment is brutal for Republicans, citing Trump's approval, the Iran war, costs, and an enthusiasm gap.
8:20
Why Republican attacks aren't landing
Walter and Pfeiffer discuss the failure of socialism, immigration, and culture-war messaging against cost-of-living concerns.
18:02
Blue wave or red undertow
Walter analyzes Charlie Cook's framing, independents' shift, and the expectations of the Democratic base.
23:04
A map running through red America
They compare the number of competitive seats in past wave years and note how deep into Trump territory Democrats must go.
25:19
Can the polls be trusted?
They discuss Democratic poll anxiety, possible errors in either direction, and the Senate races in Maine, Michigan, Texas, and Ohio.
36:03
Trump's rally blitz
Walter questions the strategic logic of Trump's campaigning, citing declining identification as Trump Republicans.
43:56
House races and redistricting
Walter explains Cook's ratings shifts and argues Republican redistricting in Texas and Florida is underdelivering.
53:11
An uneven wave
They discuss regional and demographic variation, comparing the wave to a tornado, and farm-belt pain from tariffs and diesel prices.
58:21
Democratic underperformance in blue states
Walter attributes weaker Democratic margins in Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, and New York to polarization and local factors.
1:06:00
Kansas Senate race
Walter explains why Kansas has become a toss-up, citing the farm economy, Adam Hamilton's profile, and Roger Marshall's weaknesses.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Amy Walter
Walter says Republican voters are unenthusiastic mainly because of costs and the war in Iran.
“They're frustrated with the president for a whole range of reasons, but mostly the cost of stuff and the war in Iran”
Listen from 3:12 · United States war with Iran
Amy Walter
Walter argues the 2026 environment resembles 2006, with a president's approval below 40% as Bush's was then.
“This feels very 2006 deja vu because you have a president with an approval rating under 40%, which is where George W. Bush was”
Listen from 3:17 · 2006 United States elections
Amy Walter
Walter notes that despite heavy Republican spending, Democratic candidates remain viewed favorably while Republicans are underwater.
“opinions of the Democrats remain above water. And opinions of the Republican candidates are below water”
Listen from 4:27 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argues the environment is worse for Republicans than 2006 was.
“This is a worse political environment for Republicans than 2006 was”
Listen from 6:50 · 2006 United States elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argues Republicans have fewer tools than in 2006 because TV advertising matters less.
“I do feel like they have fewer levers to pull than they did in 2006, in part because TV ads clearly matter less than they did back then”
Listen from 7:47 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Amy Walter
Walter cites polling showing the MAGA label is more toxic than the socialist label because voters understand it better.
“And the MAGA label, is more toxic than the socialist label, in part because people know what MAGA is, right?”
Listen from 9:59 · Socialism in United States politics
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argues Republicans' shift away from cost messaging reinforces the critique that they ignore costs.
“the main thing is always the main thing. And if you're off the main thing, you look like you're ignoring”
Listen from 15:14 · Gas prices and inflation
Amy Walter
Walter says Republican non-turnout, the 'undertow,' determines whether Democrats have a good, great, or historic night.
“that, I feel like, is the difference between Democrats having a good night, a great night, or like a historic night is the undertow piece”
Listen from 18:44 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Amy Walter
Walter argues the Democratic base now expects more than a check on Trump, posing a challenge for party leaders in 2027.
“They want a real change to the system and they want something more substantive than just, you know, we're kind of moving around the edges”
Listen from 21:05 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer notes that polls in 2025 erred in Democrats' favor by underestimating them.
“And the polls were quite wrong in 2025. They underestimated Democrats”
Listen from 35:10 · Opinion polling in the United States
Amy Walter
Walter sees little upside in Trump's rallies because his presence only reminds voters of him.
“I don't see much upside at a time where, you know, when he is on the, when he's in people's consciousness, it only reminds people of him, right?”
Listen from 37:05 · Donald Trump approval rating
Amy Walter
Walter cites an Echelon poll showing the share of Republicans identifying as Trump Republicans fell from about 60% to 34%.
“Back in January of 2025, I think it was something like 60% of Republicans identified as a Trump Republican, and now it's like 34% identify as Trump Republican”
Listen from 37:54 · Donald Trump approval rating
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer argues Trump campaigning in Michigan, where he is deeply underwater, cannot help Republicans.
“What I can't, what you can't tell me is that him going to Michigan is helpful”
Listen from 40:54 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Amy Walter
Walter says the Texas and Florida maps assumed Republicans would retain 2024-level Latino support, which is not happening.
“the Texas and Florida maps were redrawn basically with the theory that the Republicans would do as well with Latinos as they did, as Trump did”
Listen from 45:11 · Redistricting in the United States
Dan Pfeiffer
Pfeiffer recommends watching Kentucky's 6th district as an early indicator because Kentucky's polls close first.
“if you're looking for a canary in the coal mine in either direction, how things come in in that Kentucky six race”
Listen from 51:21 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Amy Walter
Walter argues a wave election is uneven, more like a tornado than a uniform sweep.
“I think people hear wave and they assume that it means that everything goes. And it's like, it's more, it's more like a tornado”
Listen from 54:18 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Linked moment · 59:48Skip to 59:48 using a listen link in the info box.
Amy Walter
Walter attributes Democratic underperformance in blue states to a lack of elasticity in highly polarized electorates.
“A state like Minnesota, New York, Maine, there's not a lot of elasticity. It's as polarized as it's ever going to get, right?”
Listen from 59:48 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Amy Walter
Walter notes Republicans are not investing in Minnesota's Senate race while spending in Kansas and Nebraska.
“They're spending more in Kansas and Nebraska and spending zero in Minnesota”
Listen from 1:00:40 · 2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Amy Walter
Walter says a New York Times report on Roger Marshall suing his patients was especially damaging amid affordability concerns.
“the piece that came out in the New York Times about suing his patients, I think that one just really”
Listen from 1:06:17 · 2026 United States Senate election in Kansas
Amy Walter
Walter says flipping Kansas requires every factor to break Democrats' way.
“in order to flip a state like this, you have to have everything go right, right? It has to be serendipity”
Listen from 1:06:22 · 2026 United States Senate election in Kansas

People

In the conversation

Dan PfeifferCo-host of Pod Save America, author of the Message Box newsletter, and former White House communications director
Amy WalterEditor of the Cook Political Report cited on special election predictiveness

Discussed

Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
George W. BushPresident criticized for cutting taxes while going to war
Charlie CookFounder of the Cook Political Report who coined the 'red undertow' framing
Zohran MamdaniNew York Democratic politician described by Pape as a left-wing parallel to Trump's rapid rise
Bernie SandersU.S. Senator from Vermont who discussed mail-in ballots before the 2020 election
Susan CollinsRepublican senator who noted Congress holds the power of the purse
Troy JacksonFormer Maine Senate president floated as a Platner replacement
Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
Mike RogersRepublican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Jared MoskowitzDemocratic congressman in Florida's 25th district
Sam ForstagFormer smokejumper running as a Democrat in Montana's 1st district
Peggy FlanaganMinnesota lieutenant governor and Democratic Senate nominee
Amy KlobucharU.S. senator from Minnesota
Roger MarshallRepublican U.S. senator from Kansas
Adam HamiltonMethodist pastor in Kansas described as running for office
Zach DemboDemocratic House candidate in Kentucky's 6th district
Jim WebbFormer Democratic senator who won an upset in Virginia in 2006

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From the publisher

With two weeks until the midterms, Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, sits down with Dan to break down what she calls the most brutal political environment Republicans have faced in twenty years. They discuss whether the numbers indicate a "blue wave" or a "red undertow," whether the polls can be trusted, and why massive Republican spending can't outrun Trump's cost-of-living crisis and his war in Iran. They also dig into the strategy—or lack thereof—behind Trump's rally blitz, whether gerrymandering has backfired on the GOP, and why Democrats may actually perform better in red states than in blue ones this November. Hate listening to ads? Become a Friends of the Pod subscriber for ad-free episodes of Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Lovett or Leave It, Runaway Country, Offline with Jon Favreau, and more—plus exclusive content, including bonus episodes of Pod Save America. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends , on Apple Podcasts, or through the Pod Save America YouTube channel. You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com . Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on October 20, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary