Trump Plans to Shove What Where?

Episode of Pod Save America · October 6, 2026 · 1 h 21 min

Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor assess Democrats' red-state polling surge before the 2026 midterms, and Vietor interviews Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.

Summary

With under 30 days until the 2026 midterms, the hosts discussed New York Times/Siena polls showing Trump's approval at 40% in five red states and Democrats leading or tied in Senate races in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa. Vietor worried about response bias, Lovett noted that a modest polling miss could leave Democrats narrowly short of the Senate, and Favreau credited Democratic recruitment because candidates were seen as less left-wing than the national party. They also discussed underfunded governor's races, super PACs shifting money from North Carolina to Kansas, and Democrats expanding the House map.

The hosts covered Trump urging supporters to vote by mail while still alleging fraud, his posting of Sen. Tom Cotton's phone number over a daylight saving time bill (Lovett argued states should be allowed a third option to keep switching), and diesel prices tied to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Race updates included Abdul El-Sayed's Fox News appearance and a planned Obama visit to Michigan, leaked Ken Paxton fundraiser audio in Texas, Angie Nixon's Florida Senate campaign, a New York Times report on Kristi Noem approving marked-up jet purchases from a donor's company on her last day at DHS, and Vivek Ramaswamy nearly dropping a child at a rally.

In the interview, Hinojosa argued that a high-cost economy and anti-incumbent mood were driving voters away from Gov. Greg Abbott. She described anger over ICE raids among Latino voters, school closures and four-day weeks she attributed to Abbott's voucher program, and rural backlash against data centers such as Project Matador, including a "Break Ranks" movement among conservatives. She urged donors to invest, arguing a Democratic Texas governor could veto gerrymandered maps.

Chapters

2:15
Intro and Trump's rally boast
Favreau previews the episode and plays Trump promising Republicans will 'win big' in the midterms.
3:28
Red-state Senate polls
The hosts dissect New York Times/Siena polls showing Democrats leading or tied in Senate races in five Trump-won states.
14:36
Governor's races and funding gaps
Discussion of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, split-ticket voting, anti-incumbent mood and donors' neglect of governor's races.
Linked moment · 21:40Skip to 21:40 using a listen link in the info box.
21:40
Super PAC money moves and House map
The hosts read into Republican super PACs shifting money to Kansas and Democrats adding Trump-plus-15 and -20 House seats.
26:54
Trump on mail voting and doxxing Tom Cotton
Trump's reversal on mail voting and his posting of Cotton's phone number over a daylight saving time bill.
29:56
Diesel prices and farmers
Vietor and Lovett argue a small drop in fuel prices won't reassure farmers amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
33:40
Michigan Senate race
Abdul El-Sayed's Fox News interview and Barack Obama's planned campaign trip to Detroit.
39:59
Ken Paxton's leaked remarks
Paxton's fundraiser complaint that he doesn't control his own campaign and the limits of Republican spending for him.
43:16
Florida Senate race
Angie Nixon's emotional response to JD Vance and why her race has drawn little national investment.
49:06
Kristi Noem's jet purchases and Vivek Ramaswamy
The New York Times report on DHS buying marked-up jets from a donor's company, then Ramaswamy nearly dropping a child.
56:59
Interview: Gina Hinojosa on winning Texas
Hinojosa outlines her coalition, Latino voters' anger at ICE raids and the anti-incumbent mood against Greg Abbott.
1:06:23
Public schools, data centers and the case for donors
Hinojosa discusses vouchers, rural data center backlash, the Break Ranks movement and redistricting stakes.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Tommy Vietor
Vietor expresses concern that the favorable polls may reflect response bias from Democrats being more willing to answer surveys.
“I'm worried about the potential response bias. I'm worried about Democrats answering polls”
Listen from 7:56 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Lovett
Lovett warns that because the reach races are close, a modest polling error could produce a big Democratic wave that still falls just short of a Senate majority.
“if there was a two or three or four point polling mistake, you can imagine waking up in a huge democratic wave in which we almost win the Senate”
Listen from 10:13 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning the national party brand because far fewer voters see them as too far left.
“Only 35% say their actual Democratic Senate candidate is too far left. And so the candidate brands are all running, outrunning the national party brand”
Listen from 11:07 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues Democratic governor's races are chronically underfunded because donors see only Congress as a check on Trump.
“Democratic donors see the Senate and the House as a check on Trump. They don't think that way about governor's races”
Listen from 16:24 · Campaign finance in the United States
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues widespread anger at incumbent leadership in states and Congress will affect the midterm results.
“I think that there's something about incumbency and people just being fucking pissed at the leadership in their state and in Congress”
Listen from 18:39 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Lovett
Lovett asserts that Trump's claims of mail-voting fraud have no evidence behind them.
“There is no evidence. He's making it up. You know that. We know that”
Listen from 28:02 · Postal voting in the United States
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues the stalled daylight saving bill should let states keep switching clocks in addition to choosing permanent daylight or standard time.
“There should be a third option which states can be allowed to make the switch”
Listen from 29:08 · Daylight saving time
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues farmers are unmoved by a slight weekly dip because diesel prices remain far above recent levels.
“Farmers know that diesel prices are way up from a month ago and way, way, way up from a year ago”
Listen from 30:44 · Gas prices and inflation
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues Obama is uniquely placed to counter efforts to portray Abdul El-Sayed as dangerous or foreign.
“Obama could talk about Abdul and efforts to define Abdul as dangerous or foreign in a way that Many other politicians can't”
Listen from 36:10 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Tommy Vietor
Vietor says Paxton's leaked admission that he doesn't control his campaign is especially damaging in an anti-incumbent year.
“I don't control my campaign. It's controlled by Washington in the most anti-incumbent year ever”
Listen from 40:53 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Jon Favreau
Favreau suggests the only strategy that might have helped Republicans was Trump not endorsing Paxton so John Cornyn could win the primary.
“i guess the strategy would have been donald trump not endorsing him and letting john cornyn win”
Listen from 41:57 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Jon Lovett
Lovett suggests Democrats may have over-learned the lesson of past Florida disappointments in neglecting Angie Nixon's race.
“We used to hope that Florida would go for a Democrat, and then we felt like it became Lucy with the football, and maybe we've over-learned that lesson”
Listen from 46:20 · 2026 United States Senate election in Florida
Tommy Vietor
Vietor characterizes Noem's last-day approval of marked-up jet purchases from a donor's company as brazenly illegal.
“how much did she owe this donor that she would do something this brazenly illegal?”
Listen from 50:44 · Department of Homeland Security jet purchases
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa cites a 31-point swing in a Tarrant County state Senate special election as evidence Democrats are already winning in Texas.
“where we swung a state Senate seat in the county that's supposed to be the most Republican county in the country”
Listen from 57:35 · 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa blames Greg Abbott's tax breaks for the influx of data centers into rural Texas, which she says is turning conservatives against him.
“the data centers have really descended onto rural Texas because they were invited in by Greg Abbott with the richest tax breaks in the country”
Listen from 59:14 · Data centers in Texas
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa argues the high cost of living is the main driver of Latino voters' shift away from Trump, alongside anger at ICE raids.
“Latinos are voting their pocketbook as much, if not more than anyone else, right? It's probably the swingiest of demographics politically”
Listen from 1:03:09 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa says Texas public schools are in crisis, with many districts cutting to four-day weeks for lack of funds.
“We have over 150 school districts operating at four days a week because they can't afford to operate at five days a week”
Listen from 1:07:01 · School vouchers in Texas
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa says former Governor Rick Perry and his son are among the largest investors in Project Matador, which she calls a grift.
“And one of the largest investors is Rick Perry, our former governor, and his son”
Listen from 1:11:10 · Data centers in Texas
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa argues a Democratic governor who vetoes rigged maps in Texas is crucial to preserving Democrats' chances of controlling Congress.
“A governor in Texas... who will veto rigged maps, whether they're rigged for Republicans or Democrats, is a governor who can save the union”
Listen from 1:17:08 · Redistricting in the United States
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa says Abbott has vastly outspent her on paid communications, yet she has shown she need not match him dollar for dollar.
“Craig Abbott spent $80 million in paid communications in this campaign. I've spent seven”
Listen from 1:17:08 · 2026 Texas gubernatorial election

People

In the conversation

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama
Tommy VietorCo-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World who conducted the Josh Turek interview
Jon LovettCo-host of Pod Save America; diarization split of the same speaker during the economics segment
Gina HinojosaDemocratic nominee for governor of Texas

Discussed

Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Greg AbbottRepublican governor of Texas
Mary PeltolaDemocratic Senate candidate in Alaska
Sherrod BrownDemocratic Senate candidate in Ohio and former senator
Kristi NoemU.S. Secretary of Homeland Security discussed in connection with a DHS contract scandal
Corey LewandowskiFormer Department of Homeland Security aide named in reports about Kristi Noem
Vivek RamaswamyRepublican nominee for governor of Ohio
Tom CottonRepublican U.S. senator from Arkansas
Barack ObamaFormer president referenced in comparing 2010 midterm conditions
JD VanceVice President of the United States
Rick PerryFormer Texas governor involved in the Texas ibogaine initiative
Steve BannonAmerican political strategist who recorded conversations with Epstein
Nate CohnNew York Times election analyst
Ashley MoodyRepublican U.S. senator from Florida
Troy JacksonFormer Maine Senate president floated as a Platner replacement
Bernie SandersU.S. Senator from Vermont who discussed mail-in ballots before the 2020 election

Topics

Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?
Pod Save America · Oct 18, 2026 · 1 h 11 min
Dan Pfeiffer and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter assess the 2026 midterm landscape two weeks out, covering Senate and House races, polling, Trump, and redistricting.
Impeach Pete Hegseth?
Pod Save America · Sep 29, 2026 · 58 min
Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor and Jon Lovett discuss diesel prices, a Republican data center bill, rogue AI models, a possible Pete Hegseth impeachment and Trump's taxpayer-funded ads.
1064. Andy & DJ CTI: Iran Terror Plot Fears, Nor'easter Slams East Coast & Rising NASCAR Star Attacked
REAL AF with Andy Frisella · Sep 29, 2026 · 1 h 25 min
Andy Frisella and DJ discuss a foiled suspected Iranian plot at RAF Fairford, Andrew Bailey's FBI resignation, voter demoralization, a Nor'easter, sports fights and a pulled GoFundMe.
James Talarico’s HERETIC Pastor Exposed in Undercover Video (Pastors RESPOND) | Live Free with Josh Howerton
Live Free with Josh Howerton · Sep 28, 2026 · 1 h 46 min
Lakepointe pastors Josh Howerton, Carlos Erazo, and Paul Cunningham discuss 2 Timothy 4, outline five common false teachings, and critique a viral video of James Talarico's pastor.
Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido
Pod Save America · Sep 27, 2026 · 1 h 2 min
Live at the Texas Tribune Festival, the Pod Save America hosts assess Texas and national midterm races, Xi Jinping's visit, and interview congressional candidate Bobby Pulido.
“This Will Be The Most Violent Election Of Our Lifetime” - Robert Pape #1154
Modern Wisdom · Sep 24, 2026 · 1 h 43 min
Political scientist Robert Pape tells Chris Williamson that mass public support for political violence makes the coming US midterms the most dangerous election in living memory.

From the publisher

With less than 30 days until the midterms, Trump hits the campaign trail, promising Republican voters that they're going to "win big" and "shove it up their ass." (Whose? He didn't specify.) Meanwhile, the polls tell a different story, showing Democratic Senate candidates leading in five Republican states: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. Jon, Tommy, and Lovett discuss whether the Democratic momentum is too big to be true, Republican super PACs reallocating money to typically red states, and Trump doxxing Sen. Tom Cotton over daylight saving time dispute. Then the guys check in on the latest in the Michigan, Texas, and Florida Senate races, Kristi Noem's half-billion-dollar purchase of five jets on her way out the door at Homeland Security, and Vivek Ramaswamy's latest athletic passion: weightlifting. Finally, Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor in Texas, stops by the studio to talk to Tommy about opening up a lead on three-term Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Hate listening to ads? Become a Friends of the Pod subscriber for ad-free episodes of Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Lovett or Leave It, Runaway Country, Offline with Jon Favreau, and more—plus exclusive content, including bonus episodes of Pod Save America. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends , on Apple Podcasts, or through the Pod Save America YouTube channel. You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com . Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on October 7, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary