A Political Rebellion in the Rio Grande Valley

Episode of The Daily · November 2, 2026 · 1 h 17 min

Daily producer Lindsay Garrison reports on Rio Grande Valley builders, many Trump voters, turning against Republicans after ICE raids gutted their immigrant workforce.

Summary

Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Michael Barbaro introduced a report by Daily producer Lindsay Garrison on the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, a heavily Hispanic region that swung toward Donald Trump in 2024. Garrison described how the 2021 border surge fueled perceptions of unfairness and how builders, many of whom saw Trump as the embodiment of the American dream, voted for him expecting deportations of criminals. Beginning in 2025, ICE raids on construction sites detained long-settled workers, and members of the South Texas Builders Association, led by executive director Mario Guerrero and vice president Julio Carranza, said the losses threatened the region's construction economy.

The builders sought help from local officials and members of Congress, held a Martin Luther King Day meeting with lawmakers including Monica De La Cruz and Henry Cuellar, and traveled to Washington, where Guerrero said ICE officials told them job sites were not private property unless fully enclosed and that pre-Trump immigration paperwork would not be considered valid. Guerrero said he told officials the valley would never be red again. Raids briefly slowed, then surged after new federal funding, and an ICE agent killed a framer in Houston.

The report also followed A, an anonymous undocumented framer brought from Mexico as a child, who was detained, released on bond, and later lost his final immigration case. A said he felt betrayed by contractors who voted for Trump and argued they cared mainly about their profits; Carranza acknowledged financial self-interest played a role, while board member Ronnie Cavazos defended the association's advocacy. The STBA planned a trade school to train American workers. Barbaro closed with Times polling showing Texas Latino voters favoring James Talarico over Ken Paxton by nearly 40 points, and a news item on Haley Stevens endorsing Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Chapters

1:01
Raids reach the Rio Grande Valley
Garrison describes the 2025 ICE raids on construction sites and Mario Guerrero's public alarm about their effect on the economy.
5:33
The valley and the border surge
Garrison profiles the region's culture and recounts how the 2021 immigration surge bred perceptions of unfairness that helped turn the valley red.
11:45
Trump voters' regret
Builders explain that they voted for Trump as a businessman and expected only criminals to be deported, not their longtime workers.
15:25
A, the framer, and his arrest
An anonymous undocumented framer describes learning the trade from his father, the craft of framing, and his detention by ICE.
23:53
A disappearing workforce
Builders describe stalled projects, layoffs, bankruptcies and their belief that Americans neither want nor are trained for construction jobs.
29:26
Julio Carranza's American dream
STBA vice president Julio Carranza recounts rising from poverty to become a millionaire developer.
38:03
Organizing and seeking answers
STBA leaders seek help from officials, fence job sites, raise racial profiling concerns, and hold a Martin Luther King Day meeting with members of Congress.
48:47
Lobbying in Washington
The builders meet lawmakers and ICE officials in Washington, where Guerrero warns that the valley will never be red again.
55:35
Renewed raids and A's perspective
Raids surge after new funding, and A recounts detention, wage theft, and his sense that builders acted out of self-interest.
1:06:17
Builders respond and a trade school
Carranza and Cavazos respond to A's criticism, builders say they will change their votes, and Guerrero launches a trade school.
1:11:43
A loses his case
A's final immigration case is denied, and he resolves to run if ICE comes again.
1:15:05
Polling and election news
Barbaro reports Times polling on Texas Latino voters and Haley Stevens's endorsement of Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Mario Guerrero
Guerrero argues that Donald Trump embodies the American dream because he inherited and built on his father's business.
“I believe that Donald Trump is the epitome of the American dream. His dad started something, right?”
Listen from 12:02 · American Dream
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero says valley builders voted for Trump expecting him to target murderers and rapists, not all immigrants.
“Because that's what the Mr. Trump and his administration said. that they were going to come after the murderers and the rapists”
Listen from 13:30 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero argues that U.S. citizens do not want to work in construction even when offered jobs on the spot.
“Dude, people are telling you that they'll hire you on the spot. The thing is, United States citizens don't want to work in construction”
Listen from 25:50 · Immigrant labor in the construction industry
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero contends that apprentice pay is more than double the state minimum wage, so the labor shortage stems from the difficulty of the work rather than low pay.
“That's more than double the state's minimum wage. So I think to myself, like, no, it's not that it's slave labor pay”
Listen from 26:09 · Immigrant labor in the construction industry
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero warned that the valley's construction economy would not survive another year under current conditions.
“I can guarantee you this. The Valley's construction economy will not last another year in this constituency”
Listen from 28:29 · Immigrant labor in the construction industry
Julio Carranza
Carranza argues that agents conduct warrantless entries based on racial profiling of brown construction workers.
“The racial profiling, when you don't have a warrant, they're using the bare minimum to say, hey, let me go in there”
Listen from 42:02 · Racial profiling
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero recounts that an ICE official told the STBA that property is not considered private unless fully enclosed, so no warrant is needed for job sites.
“the United States government doesn't consider any property to be private property unless it is fully enclosed. No law enforcement needs to show any warrant”
Listen from 52:01 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero says an ICE official told the builders that immigration paperwork issued before the Trump administration would not be considered valid.
“this administration is not going to consider any paperwork valid. Not that was given by Biden's administration, Obama's or Bush's or anyone's prior to Trump”
Listen from 53:01 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero says he told ICE officials, as a three-time Trump voter, that Republicans had tricked valley voters and would lose the region permanently.
“You fucking tricked us. What you guys are doing, you're gonna fucking lose, bro. And I can guarantee you, the valley will never be red again”
Listen from 53:51 · Hispanic and Latino American voting patterns
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero says an ICE client told him that after the Washington trip agents were ordered to stop raiding job sites.
“I don't know what the hell you did in Washington, but we just got strict orders that we need to stop attacking job”
Listen from 55:23 · U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
A (anonymous framer)
A says he was not surprised by the raids because Trump had promised them, and he feels betrayed that most valley contractors voted for him.
“Because, I mean, he did say he was going to do this. He did say it. And what bothered me a lot, the majority of contractors here in the Valley voted for Trump”
Listen from 1:02:13 · Hispanic and Latino American voting patterns
A (anonymous framer)
A argues that valley contractors owe their wealth to immigrant labor and are advocating mainly out of concern for their profits.
“They're in that wealth they have because of the immigrants, because of people like us that frame their homes, that do the hard job with cheap labor”
Listen from 1:02:50 · Immigrant labor in the construction industry
A (anonymous framer)
A says the labor shortage let him raise his framing price, telling a contractor it was what he voted for.
“I mean, that's what you voted for. And I didn't have any more framers. I'm one of the few framers that are left”
Listen from 1:04:05 · Immigrant labor in the construction industry
Linked moment · 1:06:17Skip to 1:06:17 using a listen link in the info box.
Julio Carranza
Carranza acknowledges he would not be speaking out if the raids did not affect his finances, and says they changed how he will vote.
“If it wasn't affecting my wallet, I really wouldn't make any issue about it”
Listen from 1:06:39 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero says he decided to start a trade school to save the South Texas construction workforce after failing to get help from officials.
“I'm going to take matters into my own hands and I'm going to figure out how I can start a school so that we can save our workforce in South Texas”
Listen from 1:08:02 · Vocational education
Mario Guerrero
Guerrero argues the government has failed to establish a proper legal pathway for immigration and should protect people's opportunity to work.
“we have people in our government that have not been able to set rules to establish a proper way of people coming into this country”
Listen from 1:10:09 · Illegal immigration to the United States

People

In the conversation

Michael BarbaroAmerican journalist and host of The New York Times podcast The Daily
Lindsay GarrisonProducer for The Daily who reported and narrated the episode
Mario GuerreroRio Grande Valley developer and executive director of the South Texas Builders Association
A (anonymous framer)Undocumented framer in the Rio Grande Valley who asked to remain anonymous
Julio CarranzaDeveloper, mortgage company owner and vice president of the South Texas Builders Association
Ronnie CavazosSouth Texas Builders Association board member and chairman, son of a framer

Discussed

Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
Monica De La CruzRepublican U.S. Representative for Texas's 15th district
Henry CuellarTexas Democratic congressman pardoned by Trump, per Leah
Kristi NoemU.S. Secretary of Homeland Security discussed in connection with a DHS contract scandal
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
Martin Luther King Jr.American civil rights leader who nominated Thich Nhat Hanh for the Nobel Peace Prize
Haley StevensU.S. Representative running for Senate in Michigan
Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
Mike RogersRepublican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee
Chuck SchumerSenate Democratic leader
Julio César ChávezMexican boxer whom Carranza recalled watching as a child

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From the publisher

In 2024, Hispanic voters in the region delivered a political earthquake: majority support for Republicans. Now, that support appears to be evaporating.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 3, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·Society & Culture