Midterm forecasts, the Iran war and data centers dominate

On The Ezra Klein Show, forecaster Nate Silver said the typical midterm shifts about 7.5 points against the president's party, while this year's environment looks closer to 11 points. He argued that an outcome in line with the polls would in some ways mark the end of the Trump era. Klein observed that the candidates most visible on social media bear little relation to those doing well in polls, and suggested Democrats are entering an era of elder-millennial talent.

On REAL AF with Andy Frisella, co-host DJ said he believes both parties cheat in elections, while Frisella urged disaffected listeners to vote anyway, arguing that cheating can only shift results so far.

Silver argued that Democrats would not be favored in the Senate had Trump not gone to war with Iran and driven up gas prices, and said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would be among the first to blame if Republicans lose the Senate. On The Joe Rogan Experience, Rogan said Trump supporters are disappointed because ending wars was one of his most popular promises, and reported that many people fear further action in Iran after the midterms.

Konstantin Kisin, also on Rogan's show, relayed Robert Pape's argument that the war has set Iran on a path to becoming a more powerful regional hegemon. On the Danny Jones Podcast, Simon Dixon framed the apparent chaos as the Middle East realigning with China.

Silver cited Economist data indicating that Trump voters living closer to data centers are more likely to flip to Democrats, and described opposition to data centers as roughly an 80-20 issue. Klein suggested Trump backs the AI industry partly out of a belief that the U.S. is in a race with China and partly to protect the stock market.

On Tomorrow, Today, Shekhar Natarajan predicted significant public backlash against AI adoption before a balance is reached, and argued that traits such as ADHD could become strengths. His guest, Pilar Mendiola Fernandez, described AI as a partnership that amplifies human capability, while acknowledging a need for regulation.

On The Daily, Michael Barbaro reported that Anthropic's IPO, expected the following month, could value the company at up to $2 trillion; Moonshots with Peter Diamandis also covered the offering. On The Builders, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman told Walter Isaacson he respects Anthropic but rejects the idea that loving AI will make it safe, and declined to endorse Peter Thiel's description of the company as a cult, calling for less tribalism. On The Joe Rogan Experience, Rogan argued that Anthropic's use of a code name for destructive book scanning showed it expected public objection.

In a second Ezra Klein Show episode, historian Quinn Slobodian argued that Elon Musk's political spending aims to entrench the dependency governments and markets already have on him, and Klein described Musk's entanglement with the state as an unstable equilibrium. Klein added that he also objects to large late donations from Democratic-aligned billionaires such as Michael Bloomberg. Silver, by contrast, argued that money is generally overrated in high-profile races. Frisella said large donations strip ordinary people of a voice and that he will no longer donate to any candidate.

Social media algorithms appeared on four podcasts after none the week before. On the Danny Jones Podcast, Simon Dixon argued that platforms deliberately feed users ideological content to produce the most extreme version of themselves, and Jones said Epstein-related content that was once throttled on YouTube now performs extremely well. On Mayim Bialik's Breakdown, Jonathan Cohen argued that digital consumption makes people more suggestible than they realize.

On The Mel Robbins Podcast, Robbins told her daughter Sawyer that sharing household upkeep is a basic adult skill rather than a gender role, and Sawyer Robbins concluded that communication was the common thread in her mother's advice. On Call Her Daddy, La La Anthony said her move to New York marked the start of her marriage's decline and advised that happiness should not revolve only around a relationship.