Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm

Episode of The Ezra Klein Show · October 27, 2026 · 55 min

Ezra Klein and forecaster Nate Silver assess the 2026 midterms a week out, including Democrats' Senate chances, polling reliability, redistricting and Trump's weakening position.

Summary

Recorded about a week before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, Ezra Klein spoke with election forecaster Nate Silver about why Democrats appeared competitive for the Senate in states Donald Trump won by double digits, such as Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas. Silver said that if results matched the polls, the election could mark the end of the Trump era, attributing the shift to an unusually large midterm swing of roughly 11 points against the president's party, strong Democratic recruits, weak Republican nominees, and high gas prices tied to the war with Iran.

The two discussed Democratic overperformance in redder states, which Silver linked to diesel prices, a possible unwinding of Trump-era coalition gains and proximity to data centers, while Klein proposed that Democrats had nominated more moderate candidates in red states. On polling accuracy, Silver noted that polls had underestimated Trump in presidential years but were accurate in the 2018 and 2022 midterms and underestimated Democrats in 2025 off-year races; he recounted the 2024 Ann Selzer Iowa poll miss and described polls as increasingly model-like.

Silver explained that redistricting and voter sorting limited the House map, so his model's 90-percent-plus chance of a Democratic House translated to roughly 22 seats, and attributed Florida's rightward shift mostly to migration. They discussed Trump's approval decline, its correlation with gas prices, his unpopular stance on data centers and AI, Elon Musk's campaign spending, and Klein's concern about risks in a lame-duck presidency. Silver said his gut was more contradictory than in 2024, worrying more about state polls than the national picture, and closed with three book recommendations.

Chapters

0:58
Introduction and a 'momentous' election
Klein frames Democrats' unexpected Senate path and Silver explains why a Democratic win could mark the end of the Trump era.
3:47
Why Democrats are competitive
Silver cites the historical midterm backlash, an unusually large swing and strong Democratic candidates against weak Republicans.
9:13
Overperformance in red states
The pair weigh explanations for Democratic strength in redder states, including diesel prices, depolarization, candidate moderation and data centers.
17:47
How resilient are Democratic hopes to polling error
Silver reviews midterm polling accuracy, the 2024 Ann Selzer Iowa poll, and how pollsters now operate like modelers.
25:52
Scenarios and Democratic factional narratives
They discuss what a Republican overperformance would mean, how progressive versus moderate results will be read, and a rising elder-millennial Democratic class.
33:27
The House, redistricting and Florida
Silver explains why the House majority may be modest in seats and attributes Florida's red shift mostly to migration.
37:57
Trump's role, approval and the war with Iran
They examine Trump's indifference to Senate candidates, his approval decline tied to gas prices, and his stance on AI and data centers.
45:12
Risk in a lame-duck presidency
Klein and Silver discuss geopolitical, economic and AI risks in Trump's final two years and blame for the Iran war.
49:31
Money, and model versus gut
Silver argues money is overrated in high-profile races and compares his gut feeling to his model.
52:20
Book recommendations
Silver recommends books by Robert J. Gordon, Cate Hall and Al Alvarez.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Nate Silver
Silver argues that if the election goes as polls suggest, it would in some ways mark the end of the Trump era and make Trump a super lame duck.
“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era, I think”
Listen from 2:43 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Nate Silver
Silver says the average midterm swings 7.5 points against the president's party, but this year the swing looks closer to 11 points.
“in the average midterm, the environment shifts by seven and a half points against the president's party versus the previous presidential year. This year, it looks more like 11 points”
Listen from 5:27 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Nate Silver
Silver says Democrats could survive losing Michigan or Maine, but losing both would likely end their chance of flipping the Senate.
“they'd still have a chance if they were to lose both, then probably game over for a Democratic Senate flip”
Listen from 7:47 · 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Nate Silver
Silver links Democratic strength in colder Midwestern states to diesel prices, since diesel is consumed heavily by agriculture, trucking and home heating.
“If you look at where diesel fuels are consumed, not usually by passenger vehicles, but by agriculture, trucking, petroleum, home heating oils, right?”
Listen from 10:02 · Gas prices and inflation
Nate Silver
Silver cites Economist data showing that Trump voters living closer to data centers are more likely to flip to Democrats.
“the closer that Trump voters live to data centers, the more likely they are to flip and vote democratic in this election”
Listen from 14:37 · Artificial intelligence
Ezra Klein
Klein observes that there is almost no connection between which candidates dominate social media and which are performing well in polls.
“there is almost no connection between who are the candidates who are everywhere on social media and my feeds and who are the candidates who are doing particularly well”
Listen from 15:40 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Nate Silver
Silver notes that polls underestimated Democrats by five to ten points in the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia races, one of the largest misses in a well-polled general election.
“In New Jersey and Virginia last year, the polls were five to ten points low on Democrats”
Listen from 19:57 · Opinion polling accuracy
Nate Silver
Silver explains that screening likely voters by self-reported intent produces very Democratic samples, while models using other data show more modest Democratic results.
“if you ask people, are you going to vote? How enthusiastic are you about voting? That produces a very democratic sample”
Listen from 24:59 · Opinion polling accuracy
Ezra Klein
Klein argues Democrats are entering an era of elder-millennial talent more native to the current communication environment.
“the Democrats are coming into an era of like elder millennial talent, right?”
Listen from 30:41 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Nate Silver Prediction · due Nov 2026
Silver says that because of redistricting and sorting, his model's 90-percent-plus chance of a Democratic House translates to only about 22 seats gained on average.
“even our model that has them with a 90% plus chance of winning the House that only translates, quote unquote, into 22 seats or something on average”
Listen from 34:20 · Redistricting in the United States
Nate Silver
Silver attributes Florida's shift to the right mostly to migration and partly to a self-reinforcing decline of the state Democratic Party.
“I think it's 75% migration and 25% kind of a death spiral for the Democratic Party that might be self-reinforcing”
Listen from 36:09 · Politics of Florida
Ezra Klein
Klein argues Trump could have secured the Texas Senate nomination for John Cornyn, which would have strengthened Republicans' position.
“Trump easily could have just ended that primary and made Cornyn the winner”
Listen from 38:48 · 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Linked moment · 39:43Skip to 39:43 using a listen link in the info box.
Nate Silver
Silver argues Democrats would not be favored in the Senate if Trump had not gone to war with Iran and driven up gas prices.
“I don't think we'd be talking about Democrats being favored in the Senate if Trump hadn't decided to go to war with Iran and spike gas prices”
Listen from 39:43 · United States war with Iran
Nate Silver
Silver says Trump's approval rating, modeled statistically, is closely correlated with gas prices, alongside a steady downward time trend.
“If you want to like model it statistically, then it's quite correlated with gas prices, frankly”
Listen from 41:17 · Donald Trump approval rating
Nate Silver
Silver says opposition to data centers is roughly an 80-20 issue and that few voters want AI to accelerate.
“Like data centers are like a 80-20 issue against data centers now, roughly”
Listen from 41:17 · Artificial intelligence
Ezra Klein
Klein suggests Trump backs the AI industry partly because he believes the U.S. is in a race with China and partly to protect the stock market.
“I think he actually is persuaded we're in a military and geopolitical and economic race with China”
Listen from 43:15 · Artificial intelligence
Nate Silver
Silver says that if Republicans lose the Senate, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should be among the first blamed for the Iran war.
“if Republicans lose the Senate, probably one of the first people that should be blamed is Pete Hegseth, I think, right?”
Listen from 46:35 · United States war with Iran
Nate Silver
Silver argues money is generally overrated in high-profile races, though it matters more in House races and state legislatures.
“I think money is generally overrated in politics, or I qualify that by saying for any high-profile race”
Listen from 49:37 · Campaign finance in the United States
Nate Silver
Silver says his gut is contradictory this year, and he worries more about state polls being wrong than the national picture being miscalibrated.
“I worry more about the state polls being wrong than the national race being miscalibrated”
Listen from 50:50 · Opinion polling accuracy

People

In the conversation

Ezra KleinNew York Times Opinion columnist and host of The Ezra Klein Show (diarization also merged one PopCast promo line into this label)
Nate SilverElections analyst whose polling model and averages are cited

Discussed

Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee
James TalaricoDemocratic Senate nominee in Texas
Susan CollinsRepublican senator who noted Congress holds the power of the purse
Troy JacksonFormer Maine Senate president floated as a Platner replacement
Graham PlatnerPresumptive Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine
Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan
Roy CooperFormer North Carolina governor running for Senate
Mary PeltolaDemocratic Senate candidate in Alaska
Josh TurekIowa state legislator, Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Iowa
Sherrod BrownDemocratic Senate candidate in Ohio and former senator
Jon OssoffU.S. senator from Georgia cited as connecting corruption and economics
Roger MarshallRepublican U.S. senator from Kansas
Ann SelzerIowa pollster whose final 2024 poll missed badly
Pete HegsethU.S. Secretary of Defense overseeing the Iran campaign
Elon MuskEntrepreneur behind X, xAI and SpaceX, discussed in AI competition
Heather Cox RichardsonAmerican historian and author of the Substack newsletter Letters from an American
Ron DeSantisGovernor of Florida
John CornynIncumbent Republican U.S. senator from Texas
Barack ObamaFormer president referenced in comparing 2010 midterm conditions
Robert J. GordonEconomic historian, author of The Rise and Fall of American Growth
Cate HallFormer poker player and author of You Can Just Do Things
Al AlvarezBritish poet and critic, author of The Biggest Game in Town

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Dan Pfeiffer and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter assess the 2026 midterm landscape two weeks out, covering Senate and House races, polling, Trump, and redistricting.

From the publisher

“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era,” Nate Silver told me. The midterms are a week away, and it looks entirely possible that Democrats will win not just the House, but also the Senate. Democrats are polling competitively deep into red territory – Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas – states that Trump won in 2024 by double digits. But Democrats have been burned by big polling misses before. So can we really trust what the polls are telling us? And what stories have emerged in the data that we might see play out on election night? Silver is an internationally famous elections nerd, one of the people who made election forecasting a core part of American political discourse. He edits The Silver Bulletin on Substack, co-hosts the podcast “Still Counting” and is the author, most recently, of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” Mentioned: “Data centres are turning Trump voters into Democrats” by The Economist “We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.” by Nate Cohn “FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson Book Recommendations: The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon You Can Just Do Things by Cate Hall, with Sasha Chapin The Biggest Game in Town by Al Alvarez Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Jack McCordick. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Kate Sinclair, Julie Beer and Jordyn Flaherty. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota and Pat McCusker. Our recording engineer is Aman Sahota. Cin…

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on October 28, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary