80-Year-Old Man Loses War

Episode of Pod Save America · June 16, 2026 · 1 h 15 min

Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, and Tommy Vietor assess Trump's Iran war-ending memo, the White House UFC event, and the Newsom probe; Sen. Mark Warner discusses Iran and intelligence nominees.

Summary

The hosts discussed a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran that extended a ceasefire by 60 days, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and ended the U.S. naval blockade while deferring nuclear and sanctions issues. Favreau argued Trump had lost the war and achieved none of his stated goals; Lovett called the agreement a U.S. surrender rather than a deal, and Vietor contrasted it with the JCPOA, arguing Trump might at best obtain a similar deal he could have gotten without war. They also discussed Netanyahu's strikes in Lebanon, Israeli criticism of the deal, hawkish Republican reaction including Lindsey Graham's comments about JD Vance, and how Democrats should message the war and lingering gas prices ahead of the midterms.

The hosts then turned to Trump's 80th birthday UFC event on the White House South Lawn. Lovett and Vietor said they did not object to the spectacle itself but criticized its corruption, including the Paramount Plus broadcast owned by David Ellison, Trump's purchase of TKO stock, World Liberty Financial's USD1 bonus pool, TrumpCoins medallions, and alleged betting DMs between Eric Trump and Daniel Cormier. They also discussed export controls imposed on Anthropic's AI models and a fighter's slur against Michelle Obama.

Next they reacted to Gavin Newsom's announcement that the Justice Department was investigating his wife, with Lovett describing a completely politicized DOJ and Favreau predicting Trump would target whichever Democrats lead the 2028 primary polls.

In the interview, Warner told Vietor the Iran agreement was less than it appeared, that the regime and IRGC were more hardline, and that public estimates of destroyed ballistic missiles were untrue. He criticized Netanyahu's conduct in Lebanon and the West Bank, explained his push to quickly confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence to keep Bill Pulte out of the role, defended reauthorization of FISA Section 702, and voiced concern about Kash Patel at the FBI.

Chapters

1:23
Introduction
Favreau, Lovett, and Vietor preview the episode on the Iran deal, the White House UFC event, the Newsom probe, and the Mark Warner interview.
2:35
The Iran memorandum of understanding
The hosts assess the MOU's terms and argue Trump achieved none of his war aims, comparing it unfavorably with the JCPOA.
11:21
Netanyahu, Lebanon, and Israel's reaction
The hosts discuss Trump's dispute with Netanyahu over Lebanon strikes and the negative reaction to the deal in Israel.
16:44
MAGA world reacts
The hosts examine Lindsey Graham's comments about Vance and fury among Republican Iran hawks, and possible 2028 implications.
21:57
Midterm politics and gas prices
The hosts debate how Democrats should message the war and how long high fuel prices will persist.
27:45
The White House UFC event
The hosts react to Trump's birthday cage fight on the South Lawn, its production, and its partisan framing.
35:17
Corruption around the fight
The hosts detail the Paramount Plus deal, Trump's TKO stock purchase, crypto sponsorships, and the Eric Trump betting DMs.
39:58
Anthropic export controls
The hosts discuss the administration's export controls on Anthropic's AI models and its ongoing feud with the company.
44:04
DOJ investigation of the Newsoms
The hosts discuss Newsom's disclosure that the DOJ is targeting his wife and what it portends for 2028 Democrats.
53:51
Warner on the Iran deal
Warner says the deal is less than it appears, Iran's leadership is more hardline, and missile damage estimates were overstated.
59:31
Lebanon, Netanyahu, and messaging
Warner criticizes Netanyahu's conduct in Lebanon and the West Bank and explains how Democrats should talk about ending the war.
1:03:13
Bill Pulte and the DNI post
Warner explains why he wants Jay Clayton confirmed quickly to keep Pulte out of the Director of National Intelligence role.
1:06:42
FISA Section 702 debate
Warner defends reauthorizing Section 702 and describes the uncertainty over telecom participation after its lapse.
1:12:43
Kash Patel and intelligence professionals
Warner voices concern about Kash Patel and the firing of career intelligence officials.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Jon Lovett
Lovett argues the MOU is not a real deal but a U.S. surrender to restart negotiations.
“So this is not a deal. This is the U.S. surrendering in order to reopen the negotiations”
Listen from 5:13 · United States war with Iran
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues the war taught Iran it can disrupt the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
“And Iran now knows it can shut down the global economy at any time. by closing the Strait of Hormuz”
Listen from 6:13 · Strait of Hormuz
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues Trump will at best get a deal similar to the JCPOA that he could have obtained without war.
“it sounds like Trump is maybe at best going to get a similar deal after launching this disastrous war that he could have gotten if he just tried to renegotiate”
Listen from 11:09 · Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues the deal is a major political blow to Netanyahu's image as Israel's security leader.
“this is a huge hit for Netanyahu himself. He was Mr. Iran. He was Mr. Security”
Listen from 13:59 · Israeli strikes in Lebanon
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues Trump cannot simply wash his hands of the region because Iran can draw the U.S. back in by closing the strait.
“Iran, of course, knows that it can get us back into the whole thing just by closing the straight again”
Listen from 15:33 · Strait of Hormuz
Tommy Vietor
Vietor urges Democrats to more strongly back diplomacy and oppose regime-change wars.
“I think Democrats need to be more full-throated in support of diplomatic solutions to problems, stop being afraid of their own shadow on this stuff”
Listen from 23:21 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Favreau Prediction · due Nov 2026
Favreau predicts gas prices will fall by November but not return to pre-war levels.
“gas prices come down between now and November, but they don't end up where they were before this conflict started at all”
Listen from 25:12 · Gas prices and inflation
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues that forecasts of falling gas prices are unreliable because markets already price in known expectations.
“Nobody knows what gas prices will be in September or October. If they did, that's what the price would be”
Listen from 26:52 · Gas prices and inflation
Jon Lovett
Lovett says he has no problem with a spectacle on the White House lawn, objecting instead to its corruption and partisan framing.
“It is the corruption and then making it about him and it being a right wing MAGA thing like that is the problem”
Listen from 30:01 · UFC White House event
Tommy Vietor
Vietor cites a Reuters investigation finding the Trump family profited massively from crypto while retail investors lost money.
“They found the Trump family has made $2.3 billion in profit. And then, of course, on the other side of that, you have a million retail investors”
Listen from 38:10 · Political corruption in the United States
Linked moment · 41:13Skip to 41:13 using a listen link in the info box.
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues it is hard to tell whether the Anthropic export controls reflect a real security issue or administration retaliation.
“it is just very hard to tell the difference between penalizing Anthropic because it's now an enemy of the administration versus actually stepping in”
Listen from 41:13 · Anthropic
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues the Justice Department is more politicized than ever before.
“We have a completely politicized Department of Justice, unlike anything we've ever had before in our history”
Listen from 45:38 · United States Department of Justice
Jon Favreau
Favreau predicts Trump's DOJ will target whichever Democrats lead the 2028 primary polls.
“they're going to go after the people who are leading in the polls. And really, I think the only way you're going to avoid investigation”
Listen from 47:35 · United States Department of Justice
Tommy Vietor
Vietor reads Newsom's public response as a sign the Newsoms feel confident legally and see it as a political fight.
“they view this as a PR battle, which tells you they probably feel confident about the legal side of things”
Listen from 50:23 · United States Department of Justice
Mark Warner
Warner says the war has left neither the U.S., Gulf allies, nor Israel stronger.
“None of that makes us, none of that makes our Gulf allies, none of it even frankly makes Israel stronger than when we started 107 days ago”
Listen from 56:04 · United States war with Iran
Mark Warner
Warner criticizes the U.S. for rejecting Ukraine's offer of anti-drone technology.
“it was so insane that we didn't take the Ukrainians offer in December, where they were going to say, we will give you our anti-drone technology”
Listen from 56:37 · United States war with Iran
Mark Warner
Warner says public claims that most of Iran's ballistic missiles were destroyed are untrue.
“The earlier estimates, and I can say this because it's in the public, that we had eliminated 70, 80, 90% are just factually not true”
Listen from 56:44 · United States war with Iran
Mark Warner
Warner says there is no intelligence evidence that Iran's new leadership is more pragmatic, and that the IRGC has gained power.
“absolutely zero evidence that anybody in the new crowd is more pragmatic, that is more westward leaning”
Listen from 58:45 · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Mark Warner
Warner says Trump deserves no credit for the war but that ending it was better than continuing.
“I'm not going to give him credit, but I'm glad he ended it rather than continued what could have led to even a worse circumstance”
Listen from 1:02:53 · United States war with Iran
Mark Warner
Warner calls Bill Pulte unfit to be DNI, citing his background and use of private mortgage data against critics.
“Bill Pulte is a third generation rich kid who literally got thrown out of his own family's company”
Listen from 1:03:41 · Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act
Mark Warner
Warner says Section 702 provides a large share of the presidential daily brief.
“It is 70% of what was in the presidential daily brief”
Listen from 1:07:50 · Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act
Mark Warner
Warner says reforms have sharply improved FBI compliance with Section 702 safeguards.
“They went from only 60% compliance to 98% compliance on making sure that appropriate checks and balances are dealt with”
Listen from 1:08:02 · Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act
Mark Warner
Warner says Kash Patel should not lead the FBI and deeply worries him.
“But no, Kash Patel scares the hell out of me. And what also scares the hell out of me”
Listen from 1:13:20

People

In the conversation

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama
Tommy VietorCo-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World who conducted the Josh Turek interview
Jon LovettCo-host of Pod Save America; diarization split of the same speaker during the economics segment
Mark WarnerDemocratic U.S. senator from Virginia who called the data center moratorium idiocy

Discussed

Benjamin NetanyahuPrime Minister of Israel
JD VanceVice President of the United States
Lindsey GrahamU.S. Senator named by Kelly as an advocate for the Iran war
Marco RubioU.S. Secretary of State who defended the Iran campaign at a cabinet meeting
Mark LevinConservative radio host who pressed for strikes on Iran
John BoltonFormer U.S. national security adviser who agreed to plead guilty to retaining classified documents
Dana WhitePresident and CEO of the UFC
David EllisonParamount chief pursuing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Eric TrumpSon of Donald Trump
Daniel CormierAmerican former UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight champion and Olympic wrestler
Mark ZuckerbergCo-founder of Facebook
Michelle ObamaFormer First Lady of the United States
Gavin NewsomGovernor of California, cited for his 2018 primary strategy
Bill PulteFHFA director named acting Director of National Intelligence
Jay ClaytonU.S. attorney and former SEC chair nominated as Director of National Intelligence
Tulsi GabbardDirector of National Intelligence
Kash PatelDirector of the Federal Bureau of Investigation
James ComeyFormer FBI director cited as another target of unusual federal prosecution
Ron WydenDemocratic senator and civil libertarian
Todd BlancheDeputy Attorney General named acting Attorney General
Ted CruzU.S. senator who called the Druski sketch beneath contempt

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From the publisher

Trump ends his war against Iran without accomplishing any of the goals he set at the war's onset. Jon, Tommy, and Lovett discuss how real the deal to end the war actually is, how it's playing out in MAGA world, and its implications for the economy and the midterms. Then, they react to the corruption at the UFC fight at the White House and Gov. Gavin Newsom's announcement that he and his wife are being targeted by Trump's Justice Department. Finally, Sen. Mark Warner talks to Tommy about the situation in Iran and Trump's nominee for Director of National Intelligence. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here . For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast, episode title, and episode date.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 29, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary