Trump Is Falling. Are Democrats Rising?

Episode of Pod Save America · May 5, 2026 · 1 h 39 min

Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor discuss the Iran war, Spirit Airlines, redistricting, Fetterman and the DNC, then Favreau interviews Melissa Murray on mifepristone, Callais and her Constitution book.

Summary

The hosts opened with the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and Trump's "Project Freedom" plan to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Vietor called the effort mostly PR and argued that pressuring Iran into capitulation was flawed because the IRGC does not care about its own people. They discussed record gas prices and the shutdown of Spirit Airlines, rejecting administration claims that the Biden Justice Department's blocking of the JetBlue merger caused the collapse; Lovett and Favreau noted the Spirit CEO had testified the airline was recovering and did not invoke the failing firm defense.

Turning to the 2026 midterms, the hosts weighed Trump's falling approval against Republican hopes. Favreau walked through redistricting after the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling, estimating a net Republican gain of about three seats if Virginia's and Florida's maps survive, while still considering Democrats favored to win the House. They discussed reports that Republicans were courting Senator John Fetterman to switch parties, with Lovett and Favreau arguing Democrats should avoid pushing him away. They criticized DNC chair Ken Martin over the unreleased 2024 autopsy and the committee's finances, and discussed why Democrats were not gaining on the generic ballot, praising Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message.

In the second half, Favreau interviewed Melissa Murray. She explained the Fifth Circuit's nationwide stay of telehealth mifepristone distribution in Louisiana v. FDA, which she said the Trump FDA had laid groundwork for, and Justice Alito's time-limited administrative stay. She described Callais as effectively eviscerating Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act while leaving it usable against remedial districts. Murray closed by discussing her book "The U.S. Constitution: A Comprehensive and Annotated Guide for the Modern Reader," including its treatment of slavery and its origin in tweets by Luther Campbell.

Chapters

0:58
Introduction
Favreau, Lovett and Vietor introduce the show and preview the episode.
3:03
Iran ceasefire collapses and Project Freedom
The hosts discuss renewed fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's shipping plan, and Iran's strategy.
10:41
Gas prices and Spirit Airlines
The hosts dispute the administration's claim that Biden-era antitrust enforcement caused Spirit Airlines' shutdown.
20:34
Midterm outlook and redistricting
Favreau details post-Callais redistricting efforts in several states and their likely impact on the House.
30:25
John Fetterman party-switch rumors
The hosts debate how Democrats should respond to Republican efforts to woo Fetterman.
42:47
Ken Martin and the DNC
The hosts criticize the DNC chair over the unreleased 2024 autopsy and finances.
55:01
Generic ballot and Ossoff's corruption message
The hosts discuss why Democrats lag on the generic ballot and whether an anti-corruption message is a model.
1:10:05
Melissa Murray on mifepristone
Murray explains the Fifth Circuit ruling and Justice Alito's stay in the Louisiana mifepristone case.
1:22:53
Louisiana v. Callais and the Voting Rights Act
Murray explains how the ruling guts Section 2 and why the court framed it modestly.
1:31:45
Murray's annotated Constitution
Murray discusses the purpose, approach and origin story of her new book on the Constitution.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues that trying to inflict enough pain to make Iran capitulate is a flawed strategy because the IRGC is indifferent to its people and holds the weapons.
“I still think that's a flawed strategy because the IRGC doesn't give a shit about their own people and they have all the guns”
Listen from 6:19 · United States war with Iran
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues the Trump administration's spin on high prices mirrors the way Biden spun inflation.
“it's very amazing how much it sounds like the way Biden was spinning this”
Listen from 12:55 · Gas prices and inflation
Tommy Vietor
Vietor cites a study finding that markets served by Spirit or discount airlines have substantially lower fares.
“there's a study that showed that, that markets with spirit or discount airlines in them have 21% lower fares as compared to markets without them”
Listen from 14:37 · Spirit Airlines shutdown
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues the blocking of the JetBlue–Spirit merger by a Reagan-appointed judge was a clear application of antitrust law to protect consumers.
“This was just a clear-cut case where the judge came in and said, the law is the law, and this would hurt consumers”
Listen from 15:42 · Spirit Airlines shutdown
Jon Favreau
Favreau notes Spirit's CEO testified at trial that the airline was recovering rather than invoking the failing firm defense.
“In fact, at the trial, the CEO said the opposite, testified the opposite, that we have turned around and things are going well in spirit now”
Listen from 16:16 · Spirit Airlines shutdown
Jon Favreau
Favreau estimates Republicans would net about three House seats from redistricting if Virginia's and Florida's maps both survive.
“if Virginia and Florida both survive, it's basically we net out at Republicans picking up three seats in the redistricting war net”
Listen from 26:58 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Linked moment · 30:25Skip to 30:25 using a listen link in the info box.
Jon Favreau Prediction · due Nov 2026
Favreau predicts Democrats remain favored to win the House, though redistricting could reduce their gains.
“I still think Democrats are favored to win the House, but this definitely could put a dent in the number of seats that we pick up”
Listen from 30:28 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues Democrats tend to push away people they deem disloyal, making the defection a self-fulfilling prophecy.
“we have this way on our side of deciding that someone isn't on our side and then making it true”
Listen from 33:29 · John Fetterman party-switch speculation
Jon Favreau
Favreau argues Democrats need not compromise positions but should avoid needlessly antagonizing Fetterman toward Republicans.
“you don't have to be a dick to him, like just for the fun of it and keep pushing him into the other side”
Listen from 35:19 · John Fetterman party-switch speculation
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues that withholding the 2024 autopsy has caused more damage than anything the report itself could contain.
“Nothing in that report could be as bad as the series of news cycles about spiking the report or going back on your promise to release it”
Listen from 44:53 · Democratic National Committee
Jon Favreau
Favreau, citing major Democratic fundraisers, says the DNC under Martin is spending more than it raises, amounting to mismanagement.
“The problem is he is spending more money than he is raising. That is very simple, and it is a mismanagement of funds”
Listen from 48:59 · Democratic National Committee
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues the corruption message is powerful because it is true and explains why government feels broken.
“I think the corruption message is really powerful because it's true. And it also gives you a why to explain why things are so broken”
Listen from 57:29 · Political corruption in the United States
Tommy Vietor
Vietor expects the midterms to be a referendum on Trump decided by turnout, favoring the more motivated Democratic base.
“I think they're going to be a referendum on Trump and the party in charge. I also think it's a turnout election”
Listen from 1:04:10 · 2026 United States midterm elections
Tommy Vietor
Vietor argues Hunter Biden's business dealings did more than anyone to undercut Democrats' corruption case against Trump.
“he did more to nullify the Democratic Party's position on waging this corruption mission against Trump than literally anybody else”
Listen from 1:04:22 · Political corruption in the United States
Jon Lovett
Lovett argues Democrats must commit to an anti-corruption agenda, including investigations, once in power even if polls discourage it.
“we have to be willing to actually like kind of put real kind of put our shoulders behind an actual anti-corruption agenda when we're in power”
Listen from 1:06:45 · Political corruption in the United States
Melissa Murray
Murray argues the Trump FDA's statements questioning mifepristone's approval enabled the Fifth Circuit's nationwide ruling.
“they certainly gave the Fifth Circuit a glide path for doing so”
Listen from 1:12:37 · Mifepristone
Melissa Murray
Murray suggests the Supreme Court may be less skeptical of anti-mifepristone claims now that public attention to abortion has waned.
“This might actually be a moment where the court is like, you know, nothing to see here”
Listen from 1:15:53 · Mifepristone
Melissa Murray
Murray says the case raises major questions for blue-state prescribers and untested post-Dobbs shield laws.
“likely to implicate the spate of shield laws that have been enacted in the wake of Dobbs that haven't really been tested at the Supreme Court yet”
Listen from 1:21:38 · Mifepristone
Melissa Murray
Murray warns that requiring proof of intentional discrimination will let states dilute minority votes while disguising it as partisanship.
“Most state officials aren't dumb. They're going to figure out how to do this without making it look intentional, and they're going to keep doing it”
Listen from 1:25:39 · Louisiana v. Callais
Melissa Murray
Murray argues preserving Section 2 in form lets non-African American litigants challenge remedial or blue-state opportunity districts.
“now non-African American litigants can come in and say, that violates my rights”
Listen from 1:29:43 · Voting Rights Act of 1965
Melissa Murray
Murray says she insisted the book be forthright about how slavery shaped the original Constitution despite the word never appearing.
“being absolutely forthright about all of the ways in which slavery is literally organized. all over the original Constitution, even though the document never says the word”
Listen from 1:34:10 · The U.S. Constitution: A Comprehensive and Annotated Guide for the Modern Reader

People

In the conversation

Jon FavreauCo-host of Pod Save America and former speechwriter for President Barack Obama
Jon LovettCo-host of Pod Save America; diarization split of the same speaker during the economics segment
Tommy VietorCo-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World who conducted the Josh Turek interview
Melissa MurrayLaw professor, co-host of Strict Scrutiny, and author

Discussed

John FettermanU.S. Senator from Pennsylvania reportedly courted by Republicans to switch parties
Ken MartinChair of the Democratic National Committee
Samuel AlitoSupreme Court justice rumored to be considering retirement
Joe ManchinFormer Democratic senator from West Virginia
Katie BrittRepublican U.S. Senator from Alabama
Dave McCormickRepublican U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
Hunter BidenSon of Joe Biden, subject of the laptop story
Jared KushnerBusinessman and Trump's son-in-law, adviser in the first Trump administration
Brett KavanaughUS Supreme Court justice targeted in an assassination attempt
Elena KaganSupreme Court justice who read her dissent from the bench
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Health secretary whose appointment Jesse Kelly cited as coalition-building
Luther Campbell2 Live Crew rapper whose tweets inspired Murray's book
Ron DeSantisGovernor of Florida
Joe LiebermanFormer U.S. Senator from Connecticut
Lakshya JainElections analyst writing at The Argument
Jonathan MartinPolitico journalist who reported on Fetterman
Pete HegsethU.S. Secretary of Defense overseeing the Iran campaign

Topics

Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?
Pod Save America · Oct 18, 2026 · 1 h 11 min
Dan Pfeiffer and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter assess the 2026 midterm landscape two weeks out, covering Senate and House races, polling, Trump, and redistricting.
Trump Plans to Shove What Where?
Pod Save America · Oct 6, 2026 · 1 h 21 min
Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor assess Democrats' red-state polling surge before the 2026 midterms, and Vietor interviews Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.
Impeach Pete Hegseth?
Pod Save America · Sep 29, 2026 · 58 min
Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor and Jon Lovett discuss diesel prices, a Republican data center bill, rogue AI models, a possible Pete Hegseth impeachment and Trump's taxpayer-funded ads.
1064. Andy & DJ CTI: Iran Terror Plot Fears, Nor'easter Slams East Coast & Rising NASCAR Star Attacked
REAL AF with Andy Frisella · Sep 29, 2026 · 1 h 25 min
Andy Frisella and DJ discuss a foiled suspected Iranian plot at RAF Fairford, Andrew Bailey's FBI resignation, voter demoralization, a Nor'easter, sports fights and a pulled GoFundMe.
James Talarico’s HERETIC Pastor Exposed in Undercover Video (Pastors RESPOND) | Live Free with Josh Howerton
Live Free with Josh Howerton · Sep 28, 2026 · 1 h 46 min
Lakepointe pastors Josh Howerton, Carlos Erazo, and Paul Cunningham discuss 2 Timothy 4, outline five common false teachings, and critique a viral video of James Talarico's pastor.
Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido
Pod Save America · Sep 27, 2026 · 1 h 2 min
Live at the Texas Tribune Festival, the Pod Save America hosts assess Texas and national midterm races, Xi Jinping's visit, and interview congressional candidate Bobby Pulido.

From the publisher

Just like the ceasefire with Iran, Trump's standing in the polls has effectively collapsed, but Democrats aren't performing better on the generic ballot. Jon, Lovett, and Tommy discuss why, and what Democrats can do about it. They also react to the latest chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration's effort to blame the demise of Spirit Airlines on Joe Biden, and whether Republicans really might convince John Fetterman to switch parties. Then, Jon talks to Strict Scrutiny's Melissa Murray about the recent court rulings on mifepristone, new threats to safe and legal abortion, and Melissa's new book "The U.S. Constitution: A Comprehensive and Annotated Guide for the Modern Reader." Friends of the Pod subscribers on Apple Podcasts will receive today’s ad-free episode a few hours later than the regular release due to a technical issue. Thanks for your patience! For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here . For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast, episode title, and episode date.

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 27, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary·Government