Iran Deal Risks and Fallout, with Curt Mills and Mark Halperin, Plus Jennifer Newsom's Wild Comments, with Damilare Sonoiki and Stepfanie Tyler | Ep. 1291

Episode of The Megyn Kelly Show · April 8, 2026 · 2 h 10 min

Megyn Kelly, Curt Mills and Mark Halperin dissect the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and 2026–28 politics, then a culture panel mocks Jennifer Siebel Newsom and Chelsea Handler.

Summary

Megyn Kelly opened with news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran following 38 days of strikes dubbed Operation Epic Fury, noting Pete Hegseth's declaration of victory and Dan Caine's warning that a ceasefire is only a pause. Kelly argued the outcome was not an American victory because Iran had gained effective control of the Strait of Hormuz and was proposing a per-barrel toll, and she reported that Israeli strikes on Lebanon had already prompted Iran to halt tanker traffic hours after the deal.

Curt Mills said the deal was better than continued war and that the anger of hawks such as Mark Levin and Laura Loomer was a good sign, but argued that no Middle East settlement will hold unless Washington says no to Israel; he called for ending arms sales and the alliance. Kelly and Mills discussed Pew polling showing 60% of American adults viewing Israel unfavorably, and Mills predicted a serious delegation including JD Vance would be needed in Islamabad.

Mark Halperin said most voters would find the conflict remote from their lives and that judgments would depend on how it ends. He walked through Trump's declining approval among men, Black, Latino and independent voters, argued Republicans will likely lose the House but retain the Senate, disagreed with Kelly about whether Democrats could block a Supreme Court nominee for two years if Samuel Alito retires, and said JD Vance remains the 2028 front-runner with Marco Rubio the consensus fallback, while Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro lead a weak Democratic field.

In the final hour, Damilare Sonoiki and Stepfanie Tyler joined to criticize Jennifer Siebel Newsom's remarks comparing her childhood accident that killed her sister to the crimes of San Quentin inmates, her claims about women in Silicon Valley, and her worries about Andrew Tate. They also discussed Chelsea Handler's dismissal of marriage, Kanye West's attempted comeback and his UK entry ban, revelations about Bryon Noem's online fetish payments, single women staging "wedding birthdays," and Chloe Fineman's account of pantsing a six-year-old camper, which Kelly called disgusting.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Iran ceasefire announced

    Kelly summarizes the two-week ceasefire after 38 days of strikes, Hegseth's victory claim, Caine's caution, and Trump's Truth Social post about business with Iran.

  2. 3:33

    Strait of Hormuz terms and Israeli strikes on Lebanon

    Kelly details Iran's ten-point plan, the proposed per-barrel toll, and reports that Israeli bombing of Lebanon has already closed the Strait again.

  3. 9:28

    Curt Mills on the deal and checking Israel

    Mills argues the ceasefire beats continued war but insists the U.S. must restrain Israel, end arms sales, and negotiate in American rather than Israeli interests.

  4. 20:10

    Hawks react: Levin, Graham and Loomer

    Kelly plays Mark Levin's emotional Hannity appearance and cites Lindsey Graham and Laura Loomer targeting JD Vance; Mills says pro-war figures are more mutinous than war skeptics.

  5. 25:56

    Collapsing American opinion of Israel

    Kelly cites Pew data showing 60% unfavorable views of Israel and majorities of under-50 Republicans and Democrats viewing it negatively; Mills calls Israel strategically blinkered.

  6. 36:22

    Halperin on the politics of the war

    Halperin says voters find the conflict remote, that everything depends on how it ends, and that scapegoating Netanyahu is difficult for American presidents.

  7. 52:06

    Trump's approval collapse and the 2026 midterms

    Kelly runs through Cook Political Report approval declines by demographic; Halperin says Republicans will probably lose the House but the Senate map favors them.

  8. 56:17

    Supreme Court succession debate

    Kelly and Halperin disagree over whether a Democratic Senate could block a Trump nominee if Samuel Alito retires, and float Ted Cruz and Mike Lee as candidates.

  9. 1:03:19

    Special election results and 2028 field

    They review the Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin Supreme Court results, then handicap Vance versus Rubio and the Democratic 2028 contenders.

  10. 1:16:23

    Jennifer Siebel Newsom's remarks

    Sonoiki and Tyler join to criticize Siebel Newsom's comparison of her sister's accidental death to prisoners' crimes and her claims about women, Silicon Valley and Andrew Tate.

  11. 1:30:50

    Chelsea Handler on marriage and Kanye West's comeback

    The panel critiques Handler's dismissal of marriage as patriarchal and discusses Ye's sold-out shows, his UK entry ban, and cancel culture.

  12. 1:43:41

    Bryon Noem's double life and modern dating

    Kelly reports new details about Kristi Noem's husband paying models in a bimbofication fetish, and the panel discusses whether it counts as cheating and why young people aren't dating.

  13. 1:51:51

    Wedding birthdays and the Chloe Fineman clip

    The panel mocks single women staging wedding-style 40th birthdays, then reacts to Chloe Fineman's Vanity Fair story about pantsing a six-year-old camper and the outlet's edit.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

  • Curt Mills

    Mills said he opposed the war from the start and that ending it, even on ambitious Iranian terms, is better for the United States than continuing.

    “so you know I oppose this war from the start I oppose the Marshall tour I oppose the assassination of Soleimani in 2020”

    Listen from 11:21 · United States war with Iran

  • Megyn Kelly

    Kelly argued the ceasefire is not an American victory because Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and can charge a toll that did not exist before.

    “The end result of this 38 days is the Strait is now controlled by Iran. It wasn't before. It now costs a toll potentially to get through. It didn't before”

    Listen from 12:43 · United States war with Iran

  • Curt Mills

    Mills predicted the war may end with something functioning like an Iranian tollbooth on the Strait, which he said would not wreck the global economy.

    “I do think the Iranian control of the straight may just happen, frankly, that the war may end with something functioning like an Iranian tollbooth”

    Listen from 13:32 · Strait of Hormuz

  • Curt Mills

    Mills argued the United States should cut Israel off, end arms sales and reconsider the alliance, calling Israel a global pariah.

    “I think we should cut them off. I I think we should not have a new memorandum of understanding of the israelis i don't think we should sell arms to them”

    Listen from 15:05 · Israel lobby in the United States

  • Megyn Kelly

    Kelly said Israel may have won the military battle but has lost the court of public opinion and is now viewed as a pariah.

    “This is a classic case for Israel of winning a war or winning a battle but losing the overall war”

    Listen from 25:56 · Israel lobby in the United States

  • Curt Mills

    Mills said Israel is trying to kill as many people as possible in Lebanon before a durable framework is signed, and that the strikes are not hitting known Hezbollah strongholds.

    “they're trying to kill as many as people as possible and kind of indiscriminately i mean the the places they've hit are not known hezbollah strongholds”

    Listen from 27:44 · Israeli strikes in Lebanon

  • Curt MillsDidn’t happen

    Mills said there is a reasonable chance a new war will begin within about three weeks despite the ceasefire.

    “i think there's a very reasonable chance uh if you have me back on we're gonna be talking about a new war in three weeks but i think this piece is worth trying”

    Listen from 31:28 · United States war with Iran

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin said most Americans would find the cost and risk of the Iran conflict baffling and that it is not a political winner regardless of outcome.

    “it's not a winner it's not a winner with voters and and and even if this ends spectacularly well and i think it still could i don't think voters are going to care much about it”

    Listen from 39:03 · United States war with Iran

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin said American presidents rarely scapegoat Netanyahu even when they feel manipulated by him.

    “So I'm not sure that he'd make me be the scapegoat. There's a lot of complex reasons why Netanyahu is not easily scapegoated by American presidents”

    Listen from 42:08 · United States war with Iran

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin said a multilateral arrangement giving Iran a financial incentive to keep the Strait open is the most likely durable solution.

    “If Iran has a financial incentive to keep the straight open, they'll keep the straight open”

    Listen from 44:57 · Strait of Hormuz

  • Mark HalperinPrediction · due Nov 2026

    Halperin predicted Republicans will almost certainly lose the House majority but that the Senate map makes a Democratic takeover very unlikely.

    “They'll almost certainly lose the majority, but we may not see a shellacking”

    Listen from 54:19 · 2026 United States midterm elections

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin said Trump losing the House could actually help him pass legislation in his final two years.

    “for getting stuff done in his last two years, he may be better off losing the House”

    Listen from 54:19 · 2026 United States midterm elections

  • Megyn Kelly

    Kelly said her sources indicate Samuel Alito is the justice most likely to retire under Trump and that a Democratic Senate would confirm no Trump nominee.

    “My sources are saying he is the most likely to retire under President Trump, and I believe he's likely to do it”

    Listen from 56:30 · Supreme Court of the United States

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin argued that a Democratic Senate could not realistically block a credentialed Trump nominee for two full years.

    “I don't know, two years is a long time to say the Supreme Court can't have a full bench”

    Listen from 59:01 · Supreme Court of the United States

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin said Vance is no longer a sure thing but Rubio would not challenge him, and Rubio would be the consensus choice if Vance passes.

    “Vance is not a sure thing anymore, but I don't believe there's any circumstances under which Rubio would challenge him”

    Listen from 1:09:48 · 2028 United States presidential election

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin named Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro as the two most likely Democratic contenders in an otherwise wide-open, weak field.

    “Guys who can build big national campaigns and handle the hurly-burly, Governor Newsom and Governor Shapiro, I think remain the two most likely”

    Listen from 1:11:37 · 2028 United States presidential election

  • Mark Halperin

    Halperin predicted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will not run for president and will instead take a Senate seat by forcing Chuck Schumer into retirement.

    “I think she'll force Chuck Schumer in retirement. She'll walk into a Senate seat. And I think that'll satisfy her for now”

    Listen from 1:14:12 · 2028 United States presidential election

  • Damilare Sonoiki

    Sonoiki argued that a decade of anti-male rhetoric drove young men rightward and created demand for manosphere figures.

    “I think it's men feeling like, they've been chased out or they've been painted as the enemy”

    Listen from 1:25:37 · Crisis of boys and young men

  • Linked moment · 1:33:00Skip to 1:33:00 using a listen link in the info box.

    Stepfanie Tyler

    Tyler said Handler's refusal to reconsider her views on marriage shows an unwillingness to grow.

    “It's like you're so attached to the things that you believe and you're not willing to update those beliefs at any time because of how it'll make you look”

    Listen from 1:33:00 · Marriage and long-term partnership

  • Damilare Sonoiki

    Sonoiki said longitudinal evidence shows coming from a stable two-parent household increases chances of success, contrary to the idea that marriage is patriarchal.

    “come from a stable two-parent household, whether it's sports, it's music, anything, you know, increases your chances for success in life”

    Listen from 1:34:14 · Marriage and long-term partnership

  • Damilare Sonoiki

    Sonoiki argued that the left's cancellation culture seeks total destruction rather than accountability, and praised Ye and Trump for refusing to be destroyed.

    “It's not cancel culture. It's consequence culture. We just want accountability. And I think one thing that's really good about Trump, he never apologizes”

    Listen from 1:37:54 · Cancel culture

  • Megyn Kelly

    Kelly said the best response to any attempted cancellation is simply to keep going.

    “Keep going is literally the best advice for anyone facing cancellation of any kind. Just keep going”

    Listen from 1:39:29 · Cancel culture

  • Megyn Kelly

    Kelly argued that online dating broke a long-working courtship system in which men asked and women decided.

    “I almost feel like online dating really screwed up the system for meeting people to the point where even that doesn't work anymore”

    Listen from 1:58:00 · Online dating

  • Damilare Sonoiki

    Sonoiki said Vanity Fair's decision to edit the clip shows political favoritism, arguing it would have promoted a similar moment involving a conservative.

    “If they had anything that made anyone look bad of the wrong political affiliation, they would have promoted it everywhere”

    Listen from 2:05:29 · Vanity Fair

  • Megyn Kelly

    Kelly condemned Chloe Fineman's account of pantsing a six-year-old camper and her lack of remorse in retelling it publicly.

    “I think you're disgusting. I think this was beyond the pale. You were a disgusting bully. You owe that boy an apology”

    Listen from 2:10:00 · Saturday Night Live

People

In the conversation

  • Megyn KellyConservative broadcaster and podcaster
  • Curt MillsExecutive director of The American Conservative
  • Mark HalperinAmerican political journalist and host of the podcast Next Up
  • Damilare SonoikiAmerican television writer whose credits include Black-ish and The Simpsons
  • Stepfanie TylerFounder of Bad Girl Media and the fashion brand Westly

Discussed

  • Donald TrumpPresident of the United States whose conduct of the Iran war is the episode's main subject
  • Benjamin NetanyahuPrime Minister of Israel
  • JD VanceVice President of the United States
  • Marco RubioU.S. Secretary of State who defended the Iran campaign at a cabinet meeting
  • Pete HegsethU.S. Secretary of Defense overseeing the Iran campaign
  • Mark LevinConservative radio host who pressed for strikes on Iran
  • Lindsey GrahamU.S. Senator named by Kelly as an advocate for the Iran war
  • Laura LoomerAmerican right-wing activist said to have met Ukraine's Chabad chief rabbi
  • Samuel AlitoSupreme Court justice rumored to be considering retirement
  • Gavin NewsomGovernor of California, cited for his 2018 primary strategy
  • Jennifer Siebel NewsomDocumentary filmmaker and California First Partner whose remarks are dissected
  • Chelsea HandlerComedian whose comments dismissing marriage are criticized
  • Kanye WestMusician cited as an example of someone being de-banked after controversial remarks
  • Kristi NoemU.S. Secretary of Homeland Security discussed in connection with a DHS contract scandal
  • Bryon NoemKristi Noem's husband, reported to have paid models in a fetish arrangement
  • Chloe FinemanSaturday Night Live cast member who described pantsing a six-year-old camper
  • Andrew TateOnline influencer cited as an example of the manosphere
  • Steve WitkoffU.S. envoy conducting negotiations with Iran
  • Jared KushnerBusinessman and Trump's son-in-law, adviser in the first Trump administration
  • Josh ShapiroGovernor of Pennsylvania whose residence was set on fire in an arson attack
  • Alexandria Ocasio-CortezCongresswoman ranked sixth by Halperin among 2028 Democrats
  • Ted CruzU.S. senator who called the Druski sketch beneath contempt
  • Mike LeeU.S. senator floated as a Supreme Court nominee
  • Nigel FarageBritish politician who criticized banning people for their speech
  • Elon MuskEntrepreneur behind X, xAI and SpaceX, discussed in AI competition
  • Dan CaineChairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who declined to reveal operation details

Topics

More from The Megyn Kelly Show

From the publisher

Megyn Kelly discusses the massive implications of the risky temporary ceasefire deal between America and Iran, President Trump teasing a possible “joint venture” deal with Iran to tax the Strait of Hormuz, and more. Then Curt Mills, executive director, The American Conservative, joins to discuss whether the ceasefire deal is possible to hold if Israel keeps bombing Lebanon, the truth about what happens next in the Middle East, Mark Levin and other war hawks now sounding sad and angry about the ceasefire deal, what happens to MAGA next, and more. Then Mark Halperin, host of "Next Up," joins to discuss the fallout and infighting the Iran war is causing on the right, why JD Vance will not face Marco Rubio in the 2028 GOP primary, who the 2028 frontrunners are on the Democratic side, and more. And Damilare Sonoiki, TV writer, and Stepfanie Tyler, founder of "Westly," join to discuss Jennifer Newsom’s shocking comments about why accidentally killing her sister makes her relate to prisoners, her outlandish comments about why women should run the world, Chelsea Handler’s desperation for attention, her bizarre comments about marriage and hookups, new details about Kristi Noem's husband Bryon’s cross-dressing double life, the "bimbo" he was paying thousands speaking out now, 40-year-old single women throwing themselves "wedding" birthdays, a shocking comment from an SNL cast member, and more. Subscribe to Mark's show Next Up: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/next-up-with-mark-halperin/id1810218232 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f0n8G4xqUo8aGxbbbtRjH YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nextuphalperin?sub_confirmation=1 Mills-https://x.com/CurtMills Sonoiki- https://x.com/dsonoiki Tyler- https://shopwestly.com/ Byrna: Go to https://Byrna.com or your local Sportsman's Warehouse today. Done with Debt: https://www.DoneWithDebt.com & tell them Megyn Kelly sent you! Relief Factor: Find out if Relief Factor can help you live pain-free—try the 3-Week QuickStart fo…

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on September 27, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

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