Prof Robert Pape: Are We Entering The Eight Most Dangerous Weeks In Our Lives?

Episode of The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett · November 5, 2026 · 1 h 30 min

Political scientist Robert Pape tells Steven Bartlett why the eight weeks after the 2026 US midterms could escalate political violence, the Iran war, and Russia–Ukraine tensions.

Summary

Robert Pape argued that the roughly eight-week period between the November 2026 US midterm elections and the seating of the new Congress could be the most dangerous of a lifetime. He pointed to three overlapping dynamics: a contested transfer of power amid what he calls violent populism, a possible US escalation in the Iran war after the elections, and a threatened Russian campaign against Ukrainian power infrastructure. He cited his surveys showing over 40 million Americans supporting military suppression of anti-Trump protesters and over 60 million supporting force to keep Trump from power.

Pape described the Iran conflict as an escalation trap, comparing President Trump to a roulette gambler chasing losses rather than a chess player. He said a leaked 'three-day plan' resembled the 1991 Instant Thunder air campaign against Iraq, which he said lasted 43 days, and predicted it would drag on, kill many civilians, provoke Iranian retaliation, and possibly lead to US ground operations. He also discussed an attempted hijacking near Tel Aviv that he judged likely an inspired suicide attack, a summer outage in Minnesota he attributed to a likely Iranian cyberattack, and the prospect of the Insurrection Act being invoked.

On Ukraine, Pape argued Trump cannot deliver the territory Putin wants, so Putin would likely escalate around Thanksgiving by attacking power in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa, and that European retaliation against Moscow for cyberattacks would amount to World War III. He proposed three firebreaks: Congress opposing Iran escalation until the new Congress is seated, a two-month moratorium on federal armed agents in cities, and a mediator-led 'hands off civilians' pledge. He dismissed stockpiling in response to the UK's Be Ready campaign, and when pressed by Bartlett, said only that people in positions of power had contacted him.

Chapters

  1. 1:29

    The eight most dangerous weeks

    Pape frames the post-midterm transfer of power, the Iran war and the Ukraine war as converging dangers.

  2. 3:35

    Midterms and checks and balances

    Pape explains midterms and how Democratic control of Congress could bring subpoenas and impeachments of Trump officials.

  3. 14:59

    The escalation trap: chess versus roulette

    Pape uses chess and roulette analogies to argue Trump is chasing losses in the Iran war, with crypto and legacy raising the stakes.

  4. 27:14

    The three-day plan and Instant Thunder

    Pape compares the leaked Iran strike plan to the 1991 Instant Thunder campaign and predicts a prolonged war with civilian casualties.

  5. 35:10

    Inspired attacks and the Tel Aviv flight

    Pape analyzes an attempted cockpit takeover on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight as a likely inspired suicide attack.

  6. 43:08

    Putin's aims in Ukraine

    Using maps, Pape argues Putin wants territory Trump cannot deliver and will likely strike Ukrainian power grids in winter.

  7. 52:22

    Violent populism as wildfire

    Pape defines violent populism and uses January 6 and riots in France to illustrate how sparks ignite combustible sentiment.

  8. 59:08

    UK Be Ready campaign and cyberattacks

    The pair discuss UK stockpiling advice and Pape's claim that a Minnesota outage was likely an Iranian cyberattack downplayed in media.

  9. 1:07:55

    Insurrection Act and ground troops

    Pape warns of troops on US streets and possible US ground operations in Iran.

  10. 1:13:45

    World War III and proxy wars

    Pape distinguishes proxy wars from World War III, which he says would come if Europe retaliated directly against Moscow.

  11. 1:17:05

    Three firebreaks and public action

    Pape proposes three de-escalation measures and urges the public to contact leaders rather than stockpile.

  12. 1:22:00

    Contact from people in power

    Bartlett presses Pape on whether the White House has contacted him; Pape confirms only that people in power have reached out.

Key points

What was said, by whom, with the exact words. Timestamps jump to the moment.

  • Robert Pape

    Pape claims his surveys show over 40 million Americans support using the military against anti-Trump protesters, double the 2024 levels.

    “over 40 million Americans support the use of the U.S. military to suppress Democratic protesters against the Trump agenda”

    Listen from 7:26 · Political violence in the United States

  • Robert Pape

    Pape argues that Democratic control of both houses of Congress would mean the virtual political destruction of the Trump presidency through subpoenas and impeachments.

    “This is going to mean the virtual political destruction of the Trump presidency”

    Listen from 7:26 · 2026 United States midterm elections

  • Robert Pape

    Pape argues international politics is better modeled as roulette than chess, with losing powers doubling down rather than accepting a draw.

    “International politics, especially when a strong power is ahead, is not a chess game”

    Listen from 17:53 · Escalation trap

  • Robert Pape

    Pape argues Trump's personal and family fortunes in crypto depend on his political power, giving him a financial incentive not to accept defeat.

    “when President Trump's power goes poof, A lot of crypto, not all of it, but a lot of it will go poof”

    Listen from 22:31 · United States war with Iran

  • Robert Pape

    Pape argues the leaked three-day Iran strike plan mirrors Instant Thunder, which was planned for days but lasted 43 days without paralyzing Iraq's military.

    “It was planned as three days with an extra three days of backup strikes, but it went on for 43 days”

    Listen from 30:22 · Operation Instant Thunder

  • Robert Pape

    Pape estimates the attempted cockpit takeover on the Dubai–Tel Aviv flight was 90% likely an attempted suicide terrorist attack aimed at Tel Aviv.

    “my estimate is that it's gone from being, say, 75% certain to 90% certain that this is an individual who wanted to not just kill himself”

    Listen from 38:40 · Suicide terrorism

  • Robert Pape

    Pape predicts Trump cannot deliver the Ukrainian territory Putin wants because only Ukraine can surrender it.

    “Trump can say that he'll deliver it, but he can't do that on his own. Only Ukraine could deliver that territory”

    Listen from 47:43 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Robert Pape

    Pape predicts Putin will escalate by attempting to knock out most electricity in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa this winter.

    “the plan is to knock out 90 percent of the power in those cities and that would keep that out”

    Listen from 49:32 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Linked moment · 52:22Skip to 52:22 using a listen link in the info box.

    Robert Pape

    Pape defines violent populism as political violence moving from the fringe to the mainstream with many actors rather than isolated ones.

    “Political violence moves from the fringe to the mainstream, where you have not just small numbers of violent actors, but large numbers of violent actors”

    Listen from 53:05 · Political violence in the United States

  • Robert Pape

    Pape believes the July power and water outage in Minnesota was most likely an Iranian cyberattack that US intelligence discouraged media from covering.

    “That has all the hallmarks of U.S. intelligence telling the papers not to cover the story”

    Listen from 1:04:51 · Cyberwarfare

  • Robert Pape

    Pape recounts that a famous CNN reporter, before the Iraq War, asked administration guests for ground rules on what not to discuss with the public.

    “she said, so let's start with the ground rules. What should we not say? What should we not ask you?”

    Listen from 1:06:53 · Cyberwarfare

  • Robert Pape

    Pape warns that once the three-day bombing campaign begins, the escalation sequence will be almost impossible to stop.

    “I'm quite concerned that once we start the three-day bombing campaign, this sequence is going to be almost impossible to stop”

    Listen from 1:12:31 · United States war with Iran

  • Robert Pape

    Pape argues that if Europe retaliates directly against Moscow for cyberattacks, that would constitute World War III.

    “there's going to be enormous pressure on Europe to retaliate directly against Moscow”

    Listen from 1:13:57 · Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Robert Pape

    Pape proposes as a core firebreak that all members of Congress demand no Iran escalation until the new Congress is seated unless Iran strikes first.

    “no escalation by the Trump administration in Iran until the new Congress is seated unless Iran strikes first”

    Listen from 1:15:55 · United States war with Iran

  • Robert Pape

    Pape recommends governors and mayors call for a two-month moratorium on federally armed agents in their cities.

    “every governor and every mayor should call on President Trump to hold a two-month moratorium on all federally armed agents in their cities”

    Listen from 1:17:05 · Political violence in the United States

  • Robert Pape

    Pape says he is not stockpiling because repeated attacks would make three days of supplies insufficient, and urges people to lobby leaders for firebreaks instead.

    “They can email, they can text, and they can call their favorite political leader, whoever that is, and tell them to adopt those three firebreaks”

    Listen from 1:20:24 · Be Ready campaign

  • Robert Pape

    Pape credits public discussion on The Diary Of A CEO with helping halt a planned campaign against Iran's drone network.

    “we were just about to unleash a whole series of attacks with CENCOM to go after Iran's drone network. This would have been a disaster”

    Listen from 1:23:58 · United States war with Iran

People

In the conversation

  • Steven BartlettBritish entrepreneur and host of The Diary Of A CEO podcast
  • Robert PapeAmerican political scientist, professor at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats

Discussed

Topics

More from The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

From the publisher

Are we secretly sleepwalking into the most dangerous 8 weeks of our lifetimes? Professor Robert Pape reveals why the coming months could trigger unprecedented political violence and war escalation, and what it means for the future of global stability. Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist who has spent the last 30 years studying global political violence and advising every US White House since 9/11. He is the author of several definitive books on military strategy and political instability, including his most recent work, Our Own Worst Enemies. His extensive research seeks to understand the root causes of violent populism and provide actionable frameworks to prevent geopolitical escalation traps. This episode was recorded on October 29, 2026. In this episode, he explains: ■ The Escalation Trap: Why international conflict is less like a strategic game of chess and more like a desperate gambler playing roulette to chase their mounting losses. ■ The "Instant Thunder" Threat: How a seemingly brief three-day aerial bombing plan could rapidly spiral into a prolonged war that paralyzes global infrastructure. ■ The Wildfire of Violent Populism: Why tens of millions of politically divided citizens currently act as combustible material waiting for a single structural spark to ignite widespread violence. ■ Invoking the Insurrection Act: The terrifying sequence of events that could legally place military troops on domestic streets to suppress protests during a transfer of power. ■ The Three Core Firebreaks: The specific demands ordinary citizens and global politicians must make to de-escalate tensions and prevent regional proxy battles from turning into World War Three. Chapters 00:00:00 Intro 00:02:14 Why Political Violence Is on the Rise 00:02:14 How Did the Current Geopolitical Crisis Begin? 00:08:47 What Happens If Democrats Win the Midterms? 00:12:45 What Could Happen Week by Week? 00:14:58 How Will the Iran War End? 00:24:01 How the Midterm Elections Could Shake…

Summary, chapters and key points were generated from the episode transcript on November 7, 2026. Quotes are checked word for word against the transcript.

Categories: Politics·News Commentary·Government